Big Redistricting News Out Of PA!

[jimrtex]

For instance we developed measurable criteria based on Census stats to define urban metro areas (see the Urban County Cluster sticky thread). I haven't seen a good way to specify an item like cultural areas that isn't open to abuse by subjectivity.

Communities of interest should be identified now for use following the 2020 Census. This would permit objective criteria to be proposed and evaluated. Otherwise you have people playing hocus pocus with the redistricting commission.

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Most of the census data that could be used is from the ACS. The Census Bureau will do special tabulations of the ACS for those willing to pay for it. Race or ethnicity is a social interest. I suspect they deliberately avoided it as an example.

[jimrtex]

For instance we developed measurable criteria based on Census stats to define urban metro areas (see the Urban County Cluster sticky thread). I haven't seen a good way to specify an item like cultural areas that isn't open to abuse by subjectivity.

Communities of interest should be identified now for use following the 2020 Census. This would permit objective criteria to be proposed and evaluated. Otherwise you have people playing hocus pocus with the redistricting commission.

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Most of the census data that could be used is from the ACS. The Census Bureau will do special tabulations of the ACS for those willing to pay for it. Race or ethnicity is a social interest. I suspect they deliberately avoided it as an example.

Communities of interest overlap and constantly change. That is why you shouldn't just draw a map and use it just like that. You need to develop a plan, then consult with local communities, then improve or change the plan, then consult again, and so on.

Overlapping communities of interest can not be recognized by districts. They are not that constantly changing - or if they are that rapidly changing they shouldn't be used for districts that last 10 years. You used the term "cultural areas" as if it had a specific meaning to you. What does it mean to you.

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the current districts are based on 2000 numbers, and the new districts might not be used until 2022, and even then will be based on 2015 numbers.

If communities of interest (cultural areas?) are to be used, they should be defined during the early stages like now. Otherwise, you will have self-serving representations when the districts are actually being drawn.

[jimrtex]

Iowa is good by American standards but it isn't really that good compared to the rest of the world. In fact it's a great example of my point. The Des Moines urban area is split between all four congressional districts, while if you just split a single county then all of Des Moines could be united in one single congressional district. In the same vein Western Iowa is also split between two districts, when it could easily be united as one.

"urban area" has a quite specific meaning in the United States census. You may be using some entirely different meaning. What is the name of that county that you believe if it were split would unify Des Moines in a single congressional district.

If western Iowa were in a single district, as it was during the 2000s, what would the other three look like? Some of the others during the 2000s were ugly.

[jimrtex]

Iowa is good by American standards but it isn't really that good compared to the rest of the world. In fact it's a great example of my point. The Des Moines urban area is split between all four congressional districts, while if you just split a single county then all of Des Moines could be united in one single congressional district. In the same vein Western Iowa is also split between two districts, when it could easily be united as one.

"urban area" has a quite specific meaning in the United States census. You may be using some entirely different meaning. What is the name of that county that you believe if it were split would unify Des Moines in a single congressional district.

If western Iowa were in a single district, as it was during the 2000s, what would the other three look like? Some of the others during the 2000s were ugly.

Because I am to lazy to draw my own this very second I'll just borrow a map from Dailykos:

Do you know what the PVI and deviation distribution is for this?

IMPORTANT REMINDER: THIS IS NOT MY MAP - IT IS FROM DAILYKOS
Here are statistics courtesy DailyKos

Most of the Des Moines Urbanized Area is in Polk County, with some overlapping into Dallas County, and a toe into Warren County,

Des Moines is very much in the southwestern part Polk County, and favored growth has been to the west, which has been accentuated by the routing of the interstates I-35 and I-80.

The current map includes Polk and Dallas, along with Warren in Madison in a single congressional district, and does not split counties. Ergo, keeping the Des Moines urban area whole does not require splitting counties.

[jimrtex]

Iowa is good by American standards but it isn't really that good compared to the rest of the world. In fact it's a great example of my point. The Des Moines urban area is split between all four congressional districts, while if you just split a single county then all of Des Moines could be united in one single congressional district. In the same vein Western Iowa is also split between two districts, when it could easily be united as one.

"urban area" has a quite specific meaning in the United States census. You may be using some entirely different meaning. What is the name of that county that you believe if it were split would unify Des Moines in a single congressional district.

If western Iowa were in a single district, as it was during the 2000s, what would the other three look like? Some of the others during the 2000s were ugly.

By urban area I am referring to three population groupings used by the US census bureau, called "Urban Areas", "Metropolitan Statistical Areas" and "Combined Statistical Areas"
The 2000 redistricting is probably the perfect example of my point. The congressional districts based on the 2000 census did not, in any way take into account compactness or communities of interest, the plan was merely the one with the smallest possible variation between the smallest and largest district, without splitting any counties.

Iowa uses (or used?, Muon2?) a simple but odd measure of compactness. NS v EW extent. This means that L shaped districts are compact. See the 2000 map, particularly IA-1. IA-2, and I-4. This measure is even exhibited in IA-5, where the eastward drift of the Missouri River is extended along the Missouri border, so as to match the north-south extend of the state.

Why didn't DailyKos include Gurthrie in its IA-3. Is this an oversight? What about Boone?

[jimrtex]

Communities of interest should be identified now for use following the 2020 Census. This would permit objective criteria to be proposed and evaluated. Otherwise you have people playing hocus pocus with the redistricting commission.

Most of the census data that could be used is from the ACS. The Census Bureau will do special tabulations of the ACS for those willing to pay for it. Race or ethnicity is a social interest. I suspect they deliberately avoided it as an example.

Communities of interest overlap and constantly change. That is why you shouldn't just draw a map and use it just like that. You need to develop a plan, then consult with local communities, then improve or change the plan, then consult again, and so on.

As jimrtex notes, the problem has often been identifying standards that justifies a community so as to achieve a political goal. In 2011 I sat though a great deal of public testimony of the kind that the UK and Oz require. I also watched the mapmakers cherry-pick which testimony to give weight, and then see them identify those favored groups.

Communities do change, but redistricting is once a decade at a very well-defined point in time. There's no reason not to quantify the communities  in advance of that set date.

I totally agree with you with regards to your second point. The best mapmakers can do is to use long term communities of interest and, key, using the communities of interest at the time of the redistricting, not the communities of interest from a couple of years ago. The best way to quantify communities of interest is to consult with the local communities. Communities of interest are a societal construct, they cannot be quantified in pure geographical terms, only in opinions.

What do you mean by "local communities"? What do you mean by "societal construct"? How can a community of interest be recognized with a district boundary if it is not geographically delineated?

A city council member might be of the opinion that his district represents his community of interest. People who don't live in the district can not vote for him, so they are not of interest to him. Your ad hoc definition is liable to be politically exploited.

[jimrtex]

Iowa is good by American standards but it isn't really that good compared to the rest of the world. In fact it's a great example of my point. The Des Moines urban area is split between all four congressional districts, while if you just split a single county then all of Des Moines could be united in one single congressional district. In the same vein Western Iowa is also split between two districts, when it could easily be united as one.

"urban area" has a quite specific meaning in the United States census. You may be using some entirely different meaning. What is the name of that county that you believe if it were split would unify Des Moines in a single congressional district.

If western Iowa were in a single district, as it was during the 2000s, what would the other three look like? Some of the others during the 2000s were ugly.

Because I am to lazy to draw my own this very second I'll just borrow a map from Dailykos:

Unfortunately for DK, IA has a very strict requirement to keep counties whole. The split county in this map does nothing to keep communities of interest whole. It does serve the political agenda of DK by packing the most conservative parts of the state into a single CD. This is what I mean by my concern over the lack of firm criteria; using soft standards invites subtle gerrymandering.

Benton County is part of the Cedar Rapids MSA.

I'm not sure what is being advocated in terms of keeping urban areas, MSA's, and CSA's whole.

[jimrtex]

The county splits out west are a different matter. I know ASV said he thought the communities of interest are more important, but I'm not how that applies there. The western boundary of Cambria and Somerset counties is a significant mountain ridge that is largely protected by state forests. It seems that this plan tries to use the next, lower ridge to the west as the line separating communities of interest, but that doesn't comport with the actually lifestyle patterns in that part of the state from my visits. Those county lines in this case do a pretty good job of marking the separation between regions.

If we were using significant mountain ridges, we would use Allegheny Mountain (Eastern Continental Mountain Divide), but that would split Altoona and Johnstown, which with modern transportation by rail and interstate do form a community of interest.

I do agree with your concern about splitting 3 counties to follow a ridge that wasn't important enough to be used for county boundaries in a state where ridges form boundaries to the extent that the counties look misshapen.