AuH2O
YaBB God
Posts: 4,239
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« on: February 10, 2005, 05:06:18 PM » |
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Not sure I buy it. What I REALLY don't buy is that ALL potential GOP candidates will be running. That's nonsense. No way both McCain and Rudy are in, and frankly, I'm a little skeptical that EITHER will be.
Edwards finished 4th in NH this past Dem primary and was percieved to be in the race (though that might be a stretch).
Finishing in the top 2 is important, particularly if there is a percieved front-runner (they can finish 2nd but probably not 3rd). Keep in mind Iowa has already occured, so Iowa's winner might be able to withstand a 3rd place finish, especially if they are a Southerner-- in the GOP at least, South Carolina is a pretty important primary.
In a Governor's duel with, say, Romney and Sanford taking center stage, Iowa would be a battle, Romney would have NH, and Sanford would have SC. That would make Iowa very important but also allow for a drawn-out primary campaign.
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