AuH2O
YaBB God
Posts: 4,239
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« on: November 05, 2006, 01:00:39 PM » |
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Except that marginal increases in black voter turnout will not help Cardin as much as O'Malley, because a good chunk of them will vote Steele (though obviously at a lesser rate than voting Cardin).
Once you have a race that's clearly 1-2 points, it comes down to turnout. Turnout can't account for 6 points but it definitely can make up 2. So ultimately I think this election will be a test of ground games, which doesn't make me all that confident.
On the other hand, I do think most polls are oversampling Democrats because they aren't using a strict enough voter turnout screen. In a Presidential year turnout is high enough it doesn't matter, but not in a midterm. The better firms (i.e. M-D) are probably using a better screening process and thus looking slightly more positive for the GOP.
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