AuH2O
YaBB God
Posts: 4,239
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« on: August 21, 2004, 07:55:36 PM » |
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« edited: August 21, 2004, 07:56:04 PM by AuH2O »
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How about Iowa as a bellweather state? It predicts the popular vote pretty well looks like:
1992: National/Iowa (rounded to single digit)
Clinton: 43/43
Bush: 37/37
Perot: 19/19
1996: National/Iowa (rounded to single digit)
Clinton: 50/49
Dole: 41/40
Perot: 8/9
2000: National/Iowa (rounded to hundreth digit)
Gore: 48.38/48.54
Bush: 47.87/48.22
Nader: 2.73/2.23
Some states get "bellweather" status because the winner usually takes them, but Iowa looks to be a damn good crossection. It even reflected the narrow Gore popular vote edge in its own results.
Maybe someone should do a massive poll of Iowa instead of a national poll???
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