Swiss Elections & Politics (Next election 2019)

[ZuWo]

A large share of the vote has been counted in Wallis and the results so far are 49% yes and 51% no to the mass immigration initiative:

http://www.vs.ch/Navig/navig.asp?MenuID=4341

[ZuWo]

There seems to be a strong no-trend in Vaud, which is not very surprising:

http://www.elections.vd.ch/votelec/results.html?scrutin=CHVO20140209

Mass immigration initiative:

39% yes, 61% no with 281 of 320 precincts reporting.

[ZuWo]

Live results and analysis by the Swiss broadcaster SRF can be followed here:

http://www.srf.ch/livestream/player/srf-1

[ZuWo]

Do you know what the initiative with the most turnout was so far in Swiss history ?

That was the EWR-initiative in 1992 with a turnout of 78%.

[ZuWo]

Live results and analysis by the Swiss broadcaster SRF can be followed here:

http://www.srf.ch/livestream/player/srf-1

You can only watch this with a Swiss IP ...

Didn't know that.

Anyway, the first full cantonal result has been released now:

Aargau: 55,2% yes, 44,8% no to the mass immigration initiative

https://www.ag.ch/de/startseite_portal/startseite_portal.jsp

[ZuWo]

55% Yes in Aargau ?

Then it looks like that the initiative will likely fail.

Aargau is usually about 6-7% more to the right than Switzerland.

You may be right. Then again, Ticino is expected to vote for the initiative very clearly.

I have to leave now - my second shift at the local polling station is going to start soon. Feel free to feed the forum with additional results, Tender!

[ZuWo]

     It seems that this is being spun as a victory for the far-right. Does that seem to be the impression on the ground in Switzerland?

It is certainly a victory for the SVP but it's a victory which, among other factors at play, would not have been possible without crossover support from Green Party members and voters. The Green Party Ticino, for example, publicly supported the initiative, after all.

[ZuWo]

I only just returned from the polling station. It was much more work than expected. We were initially told that our shift would be over by around 5PM but it took us until 10PM to finish all our work.

   I'm wondering exactly what changes will actually come from the immigration initiative passing. What was current law, and how will things be now?

In short, the current "free movement of persons" model should be replaced with a quota-based model. Proponents of the initiative have often cited the Canadian model as an example.

[ZuWo]

    It seems that this is being spun as a victory for the far-right. Does that seem to be the impression on the ground in Switzerland?

It is certainly a victory for the SVP but it's a victory which, among other factors at play, would not have been possible without crossover support from Green Party members and voters. The Green Party Ticino, for example, publicly supported the initiative, after all.

     I was looking at the map and I saw Ticino was 68% in favor. Since they're such a small group by comparison I am less knowledgeable about them, so how do the Swiss Italians usually compare politically to the Swiss French and Swiss Germans?

They are very sceptical of the European Union and tend to have certain populist tendencies, which sometimes benefits the right and sometimes the left.

[ZuWo]

Clearly, the EU is not at all happy.

Some kind of rhetorical sabber-rattling from the European Commission and certain European politicians could be expected because the result of the Swiss vote clearly hit a nerve in the EU; the idea of restricting immigration is hotly debated in various countries all across the continent and some national governments are obviously under pressure to take action as well.

Of course there were a couple of asinine reactions - Ralf Stegner, the insufferable SPD vice chairman is a prominent example - but at the end of the day that doesn't matter. Neither the European Union nor Switzerland are interested in escalating the situation so I am convinced that a common solution will be found.

I also fail to see why the amendment to the Constitution the Swiss people approved of is considered that controversial. Indeed, the first clause of the new constitutional article simply states the main goal, which is:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In English this means that Switzerland shall be able to control immigration independently. I realize that this runs counter to the ideological underpinnings of the European Union but why shouldn't a sovereign country be able to do that?

[ZuWo]

Switzerland is hardly interested in cancelling all of the existing agreements. At the same time, the Federal Council has made clear that the new constitutional clause will be implemented according to the wishes of the majority of the people. But this process will take some time; the Swiss Parliament has to write a bill based on the new constitutional article and this bill may then be challenged by means of a federal referendum.
 
It seems that the only way this dilemma can be resolved is, indeed, by entening new negotiations with the European Union, which, to put it mildly, will be challenging.
The President of the Swiss Confederation who also happens to be Foreign Minister, Didier Burkhalter (FDP), reacted in a surprisingly laid-back when he was interviewed after the result of the vote had become clear. So while the Federal Council as well as the entire Swiss diplomatic corps will have a lot of work to do in the next years they seem fairly confident that they can overcome the major obstacles. Indeed, it may be a good idea to try to get the backing of European governments that are also becoming increasingly sceptical of the principle of free movement of persons; Britain under the current government may turn out to be a valuable partner in this respect. 

The general question of how the Swiss High Court deals with the potential conflict between international accords and Swiss law is still, by and large, unclear. There has been a lot of debate on this issue during the last years and the right is tinkering with the idea of launching an initiative titled "Schweizer Recht vor internationalem Recht", which would mean that Swiss law would automatically be given precedence over international law. This is clearly a hot button issue which won't go away very soon.

[ZuWo]

Some results of important local elections that also took place at the weekend:

Zurich

In the election for City Council, the executive branch of the city government, the center-right coalition made up of the parties SVP, FDP and CVP managed to win an additional seat at the expense of the Green Party. However, the left still occupies 6 of 9 seats.

Full results:

Türler Andres (FDP) 56'907 votes
Mauch Corine (SP) 55'646
Leupi Daniel (GP) 52'744
Lauber Gerold (CVP) 52'157
Odermatt André (SP) 48'143
Nielsen Claudia (SP) 44'258
Wolff Richard (AL) 42'249
Leutenegger Filippo (FDP) 42'193
Golta Raphael (SP) 40'178
------------------------------------------------
Knauss Markus (GP) 35'330
Fehr Düsel Nina (SVP) 27'696
Scheck Roland (SVP) 23'585
Dubno Samuel (GLP) 21'896
Wobmann Walter (SD) 5'139
Keel Peter (Pirate Party) 3'919

Mayor Corine Mauch (SP) won re-election against her FDP-challenger Filippo Leutenegger with 48'608 to 32'276 votes.

The election for City Parliament produced mixed results. While the AL and FDP gained seats, the SP, SVP, CVP and EVP* lost a bit. The Swiss Democrats (SD) failed to overcome the 5%-threshold in any of the 9 electoral districts and will thus no longer be represented in parliament.

*As I was informed by the electoral commission today, the fate of the EVP hinges on a recount that is going to take place on Thursday. According to the preliminary results the party received 5.00% in their best district. If the recount results in the EVP losing a single vote in that district, the party will not have met the 5%-threshold and will lose all of its 3 seats. I will be part of the team that does the recount so I will let you know what's the case on Thursday!

Full results:

SP: 29,19% - 38 seats (-1)
SVP: 17,34% - 22 (-2)
FDP: 16,03% - 21 (+3)
GP: 10,57% - 14 (-)
GLP: 10,19% - 13 (-)
AL: 6,46% - 8 (+3)
CVP: 4,63% - 6 (-1)
EVP: 2,48% - 3 (-1)

http://www.stadt-zuerich.ch/content/portal/de/index/politik_u_recht/abstimmungen_u_wahlen/naechste_termine/140209.html

[ZuWo]

The President of the Swiss Confederation who also happens to be Foreign Minister, Didier Burkhalter (FDP), reacted in a surprisingly laid-back when he was interviewed after the result of the vote had become clear.

After having read this article in German* I think I have to retract my statement.

A short summary for the English speakers who read this thread: President Burkhalter seems to be quite irritated about the result of the vote. After an extraordinary conference with the parliamentary commitee of foreign affairs he only responded to journalists in French. When a Swiss-German journalist asked him to repeat his statement in German, Burkhalter told the journalist in German that it was useful for journalists who work in Bern, i.e. the capital of Switzerland, to know "the language of Molière". He then went on to add that the French-speaking part of Switzerland, which voted against the mass immigration initiative quite clearly, was a minority that needed to be respected. After all, he claimed, French-speaking Switzerland was the most dynamic region in the country.

*An article on the same topic in French.

[ZuWo]

     I guess the majority doesn't need to be respected. This sort of petulant whining is highly unbecoming of such a high-ranking official.

The issue is than the economical consequences in Western Switzerland would be terrible. Should we destroy the economy of French Switzerland because rural Germans aren't liking immigrants? There is limit to the majority rule.

You're Californian, you should understand that, the various initiatives almost drove California to bankrumpcy.

Well, if the adoption of the initiative has any negative impacts on the economy - and I very much doubt that - the whole country and not just the French-speaking part will be affected.
Also, the suggestion that the initiative passed because of "rural Germans" is overly simplistic. It is clear that the initiative was a lot more popular in German-speaking Switzerland than in the west of the country but we have to bear in mind that the canton with the highest share of yes votes was Ticino. Additionally, while I am aware that it has become popular to bash Switzerland as a xenophobic hellhole we ought to be more realistic; the huge majority of those who supported the initiative did so because they think that population growth has reached unhealthy levels during the recent years. We obviously need immigrants but annual net immigration of 1% of the total population is hardly sustainable in the long run.

[ZuWo]

The canton of Glarus elected a new government on Sunday. The Swiss People's Party won a seat in the executive branch while the Social Democrats lost their only representative:

Bettiga Andrea (FDP, incumbent) - 9'321
Widmer Rolf (CVP, incumbent) - 8'900
Marti Röbi (BDP, incumbent) 7'519
Lienhard Marianne (SVP) - 7'373
Mühlemann Benjamin (FDP) - 6'303
-----------------------------------------------
Bickel Christine (SP, incumbent) - 5'689

http://www.gl.ch/xml_1/internet/de/intro.cfm

[ZuWo]

ZuWo - would you mind commenting a bit more on the regional distribution of yes/no votes on the immigration initiative? Looking at the map that Tender has posted
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=172799.msg4049928#msg4049928

it for example seems to me that, aside from Ticino, it has rather been suburban than rural Germans voting yes. Some more rural parts of French-speaking Switzerland appear to also have narrowly supported the initiative. What may explain the no vote in Graubünden? Which role plays tourism, etc.

Swiss politics is now obviously facing a PR problem, namely countering the perception of "xenophobic rural Germans questioning Switzerland's integration into the European and Global economies". I would appreciate if you from time to time could update us on how leading politicians, especially those from the conservative spectrum, deal with this PR problem.

The SVP's rise is becoming obvious, but, when looking at the FPÖ in Austria, in line with a general regional trend. Can the same be said for French and Italian speaking Switzerland, i.e., are Swiss variants of FN and Lega Nord on the rise there as well? Is there a long-term risk of "Belgianisation" of Swiss politics?
 

You raise a couple of interesting issues, I will try to answer the questions as well as I can.

1. The rural/urban divide obviously plays a crucial role in explaining the results of the vote. In general, the more rural and sparsely populated a region, the more likely it supported the initiative. There are other important factors at play, though:

- As has already been stated the French-speaking part was a lot more sceptical of the proposal than the rest of the country but that's not very surprising; the west of Switzerland is notorious for being more receptive towards the idea of European integration. Likewise, Ticino has a long tradition of being the canton which is strongly opposed to the very same concept.
- Regions with a high share of wealthy and well-educated people also turned out to be opposed to the initiative; this explains the voting patterns along the lake of Zurich and the canton of Zug, which, even though these places are more rural/suburban than urban, voted against it.
- The left and the center tried to turn this vote into a vote on the SVP. They often referred to the initiative as the "SVP-Abschottungsinitiative" and hoped to sway as many voters as possible this way. While this strategy didn't work at the national level, it probably had an impact in regions where the left and/or the centrist parties are traditionally strong. Indeed, this may help to explain the result of Graubünden which seems strange at first glance because it's a very rural canton. However, fear of negative economic consequences certainly influenced the vote in places where the tourism industry is relevant as well.

2. The image problem you mention isn't talked about all that much in Switzerland. When the issue comes up the Swiss right likes to stress that it's only the foreign political elite which disapproves of some of the recent political developments in the country but that many people in other European countries admire Switzerland for its relative political independence and the courage to take unconvential political decisions. The Swiss right also claims that a majority of people in other countries would vote the same way if they had a system of direct democracy in place.

3. There is a discernible trend towards strong populist regional parties, but that's only the case in the French-speaking and Italian-speaking part of the country. The most prominent examples are the "Lega die Ticinesi" and the "Mouvement Citoyens Romands". I'm hesitant to call them right-wing because they are considerably more economically left-wing than the SVP. There is a high degree of cooperation between these regional parties, however. For instance, both the Lega and the MCR worked together to get the mass immigration initiative passed. Since these regional parties seek to distinguis themselves from the neighboring countries, i.e. Italy and France, they are strongly committed to Switzerland. Thus, I am not afraid of a political development similar to that in Belgium.

[ZuWo]

*As I was informed by the electoral commission today, the fate of the EVP hinges on a recount that is going to take place on Thursday. According to the preliminary results the party received 5.00% in their best district. If the recount results in the EVP losing a single vote in that district, the party will not have met the 5%-threshold and will lose all of its 3 seats. I will be part of the team that does the recount so I will let you know what's the case on Thursday!

We finished the recount of the votes of the Electoral District 9 in a bit less than four hours. We made sure to double check everything so as to guarantee a result which is 100% reliable. The leader of the EVP parliamentary group and a couple of local journalists were also present and closely followed our work. All of the ballots I checked were correct but I have no clue what the final result of the recount will be. Indeed, the final results will be published tomorrow afternoon. It is clear, however, that if the EVP only loses a single vote compared to the preliminary results the party will have 4.994% instead of the necessary 5% and will lose its three seats in parliament. If that's the case the SP, SVP and AL will each gain an additional seat.

[ZuWo]

     Talk about the importance of voting. That's pretty intense. A difference of one vote would decide the fate of three seats.

It's not the first time this has happened in the last years. In the 2001 election for City Council in Winterthur, the biggest town in the canton of Zurich behind Zurich City, SP-candidate Pearl Pedergnana defeated SVP-challenger Jürg Stahl by a single vote. The final result was 13,395 to 13,394 votes after the second recount.

Here's an article with some photographs taken during yesterday's recount. I didn't even notice that there was a photographer who took pictures so I was surprised this morning when I found myself on the bottom left corner of picture number 3 and again on picture 4.

[ZuWo]

^
I would be glad if this thread (and the "International Elections" board in general) could remain a place of serious discussion. There are more than enough troll posts in other parts of the forum.


The result of the recount has been published: The EVP has received 36 fewer votes than the preliminary vote tally showed. Thus, the party has failed to re-enter parliament. The three EVP seats have been given to the SP, SVP and AL, which means that the three left-wing parties SP, GP and AL now hold 62 of 125 seats in the City Parliament.

http://www.stadt-zuerich.ch/content/portal/de/index/service/medien/medienmitteilungen/2014/140214a.html

[ZuWo]

My respect to you devoting your time to making democracy work, ZuWo!

Today, our local newspaper (Lübecker Nachrichten) reported that Wolfgang Kubicki, Deputy head of the German FDP, has announced that he will not (as all the years before) go to Zermatt for winter sports holidays this year in reaction to the Swiss plebiscite. Not a headline news, but a longer article and a comment on page 2. So far on "There is no Swiss PR problem".

The Linke is calling for re-introducing controls on capital transfers to and from Switzerland (including border controls for unusual amounts of cash carried with) if Switzerland should officially put free migration in question.

Actually, not a lot of attention is paid to the way politicians in other countries react to the result of the Swiss vote. In fact, the focus of the mainstream press and most Swiss politicians lies on the upcoming negotiations with the European Union.
Therefore, the leaders of the SVP, SP, FDP, CVP and BDP as well as four members of the Federal Council met today and came up with a roadmap for the upcoming months. First of all, there was general agreement that all of the existing accords between Switzerland and the European Union with the exception of the free movement of persons agreement should not be altered. Since the outcome of last week's vote conflicts with the free movement of persons agreement, the parties acknowledged the necessity of re-negotiations with the European Union. For that purpose, the Federal Council is going to work out a concept for the implementation of the initiative until June and is planning to present a concrete bill until the end of the year.
In the meantime, individual members of the Federal Council will begin exploratory talks ("Sondierungsgespräche") with ministers of various European countries.

That's more or less the current state of affairs. At least for now there seems to be a surprising extent of consensus between the leaders of the Swiss parties. Let's wait and see whether they will be able to keep this up.

[ZuWo]

This Jenny, SVP councillor of state from Glarus, resigned his seat for health reasons. Jenny, who had been a member of the Council of State for 16 years, was diagnosed with malignant stomach cancer last week. Jenny had the reputation of being a maverick since he often bucked the official party line and never hesitated to criticize the SVP establishment.

Jenny's unexpected resignation triggers the second by-election to the Council of State in Glarus in less than 6 months; FDP councillor of state Pankraz Freitag died from a heart attack at the end of last year, which resulted in a competitive election between Thomas Hefti (FDP) and Martin Landolt (BDP). Hefti won so the FDP retained the seat. The by-election for Jenny's seat is scheduled for May 18. The SVP will certainly field a candidate and the left is likely to run a candidate, too. It is possible that the CVP and/or the BDP will contest the election as well.

The current balance of power in the Swiss Council of State looks as follows:



CVP: 13 seats
FDP: 11 seats
SP: 11 seats
SVP: 5 seats + 1 independent who is a member of the SVP caucus
GP: 2 seats
GLP: 2 seats
BDP: 1 seat

[ZuWo]

Barely seven days after the vote on the SVP-initiative against mass immigration the new constitutional article has the first tangible effects. Minister of justice Simonetta Sommaruga (SP) called the Croatian foreign Minister earlier today and informed her that the Swiss government cannot sign the current version of a treaty which sought to include Croatia into the current free movement of persons agreement between Switzerland and the European Union.
Indeed, Article 121, clause 4 clearly states that no international accords may be made which violate the text of the new constitutional passage so Sommaruga simply didn't have any other choice.

http://www.nzz.ch/aktuell/startseite/keine-unterzeichnung-in-jetziger-form-1.18244254

[ZuWo]

Barely seven days after the vote on the SVP-initiative against mass immigration the new constitutional article has the first tangible effects. Minister of justice Simonetta Sommaruga (SP) called the Croatian foreign Minister earlier today and informed her that the Swiss government cannot sign the current version of a treaty which sought to include Croatia into the current free movement of persons agreement between Switzerland and the European Union.
Indeed, Article 121, clause 4 clearly states that no international accords may be made which violate the text of the new constitutional passage so Sommaruga simply didn't have any other choice.

http://www.nzz.ch/aktuell/startseite/keine-unterzeichnung-in-jetziger-form-1.18244254

Following that call to Croatian government, EU expelled Switzerland from Horizon 2020 and Erasmus programs.

EU is apparently taking the hardline and it's clear than Switzerland will have to choose between their bilateral aggrements or renounce to teir new immigration policy.

While the European Union has indeed suspended the ongoing negotations with Switzerland regarding the "Horizon 2020" and "Erasmus" programs all is not said and done yet. As always, negotiations which have been suspended can be resumed at a later point in time.

That Switzerland renounces its new immigration policy is out of the question at the moment. A quota-based system is now part of the constitution and can only be struck down or replaced with a constitutional amendment which may be introduced by a sufficient number of citizens or the parliament. It is clear that such a process would tak a lot of time.

The example of Liechtenstein, which has both a quota-based system to restrict the number of immigrants and a free movement of persons agreement with Europe, shows that there is a precedent for a separate treatment of a non-EU member when it comes to the issue of immigration. Switzerland may try to get a similar kind of deal even if it will be difficult.

[ZuWo]

I'm fully aware than the quota-system can only be repelled by the people. But I personally think than if, at the end of the process, Switzerland has to choose between some bilateral agreements or the immigration system, I suppose than the question will be directly asked to the people.

If all else fails this is a possible scenario, yes.

[ZuWo]

President of the Federal Council/foreign minister Didier Burkhalter travelled to Berlin yesterday to meet Chancellor Angela Merkel and foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier. Later on in the day he flew to Paris to talk to Laurent Fabius, foreign minister of France.

While Paris gave Burkhalter the expected cold reception Merkel's conciliatory words at the official press conference were rather remarkable. Indeed, Merkel stressed the importance of an intense and healthy relationship between Switzerland and the European Union. More importantly, she made clear that there was quite a lot of time for both parties to find a common solution and warned against imposing hasty sanctions on Switzerland. All in all Merkel's reaction differs considerably from the more antagonistic stance of the European Commission, which has made most political analysts in Switzerland cautiously optimistic about to the pending negotiations between the Swiss government and the European Union.