BC HST referendum results expected today

[Foucaulf]

I was hoping the HST discussion would be amalgamated into my BC politics thread. Then again, the referendum has eclipsed all other politics in a way.

What does it mean?

Adding to Hatman's post...
The HST is a VAT that combines the provincial Provincial Sales Tax and the federal Goods and Services Tax. Since the HST operates under GST rules, services previously exempt from the PST are subject to a tax hike from 5% to 12%. The outrage from such an unexpected rise lead to a campaign to stage a referendum on its future.

If people want, I could write on the consequences of either option winning.

[Foucaulf]

The referendum results are out: 54.7% YES to 45.3% NO
The HST is dead - may this Liberal government fall with it.

Quick notes:

-I hope no one says "suburbanites voted against the HST". Prominent exceptions are White Rock, Cloverdale, West Vancouver and Abbotsford. But these exceptions are majority white. Look at the suburbs that voted for (Richmond, North Surrey, North Delta), and I come to the conclusion that immigrants heavily supported abolishing the HST. They were unlike native electors, some who would have noticed the government's promise of a 2% rate decrease.
-Vancouver is divided between the affluent West side (voting ~55% NO) and the hodgepodge East (voting ~65% YES).
-Every riding represented by a NDP candidate voted YES, the average margin being around the high fifties. The lowest YES percentage in a NDP riding is Saanich South, 52.5%. The NDP candidate won there by 400 votes.
-Kamloops-North Thompson is the riding with results closest to the provincial mean, being the same to the nearest hundredth.

-There is zero probability of a fall election. This is unusually strong language from me, but I do not see the Liberals going along with a green leader when half of their caucus could perish in the process.

[Foucaulf]

Finance Minister Kevin Falcon stated the HST will be abolished by March 31st, 2013. This would be a month and a fortnight before the next scheduled election.

The federal government has already issued a statement saying it wants its money back. 1.6 billion was given to BC over three years as an incentive for adopting the HST, but not anymore.

[Foucaulf]

Not too big a surprise, although to be frank, I thought the yes side would win with a much bigger margin than it did.

The decision to decrease the HST to 10% by 2014 must have swayed people in the upper-middle class, who see they might actually be taxed less. This could explain the margins for NO in the Fraser Valley.

I will bet, though, that if you only counted the white vote* the results will either be razor-thin (>1% for YES) or 1-2% for NO. On the other hand South Asians would vote 55-57% YES, followed by East Asians at around 60%.

*A non-PC term to describe most British Columbians born in the province, less those born in a heavily Asian ancestry.

I noted that in my blog; Richmond and the Peace River seem to be the populist parts of BC.

Richmond is by no means populist; it is filled with Chinese who will oppose a tax hike on restaurants, hair salons and other services that was once PST exempt. They like to spend so they can save their efforts, and the HST might as well be punishing them. They will return to passivity on other issues.

I know less about the North, but I thought the primary resource industry up there will be the least damaged by the HST removal. Discontent over a Liberal government who did not visibly improve their living may also be a factor.

What is evident is the NO camp was supported by whites from the middle class upwards, while the YES camp was supported by the lower classes as well as the nouveau riche. The latter coalition would be more unstable.

[Foucaulf]

What's the deal with the one northern no riding?

Nechako Lakes is contiguous with the regional district of Bulkley-Nechako, an area dependent on primary industries and trying to expand tourism. The mining industry quite supported the HST, and eliminating the tax will be a hit to all service industries. I imagine one of the big population centres - Smithers or Vanderhoof - voted 55% NO to flip the riding.

Compared to the rest of the North, that riding also had a lower percentage of people who signed the petition to issue a referendum in the first place.

[Foucaulf]

Foucalf, if the numbers of signatures per riding are available, any possibility of maps?

I hope you don't mind me using your base map?

Stats from here, although there was controversy about duplicate signatures being included in this first tally.

[Foucaulf]

I find it surprising how few petition signatures were from Vancouver. Is there any reason for that?

Once again, the easy answer is "immigrants". Newly naturalised citizens either do so for ulterior motives, or does not care enough for electoral politics. Add this to the fact that the petition is not publicised like an election is and the immigrants know next to nothing. There would also be less volunteers, so those who want to sign the petition don't know where to sign it.

I'd hesitate to speculate further. I will say that people in the more remote ridings live in cities anyways, so distance was never a big issue.


Here's the Globe's BC columnist talking about why a fall election is still a good idea. I do agree with him, if only that things will only get worse for the Liberals. They've lost the Chinese, they've really lost the Punjabis and the HST debacle has electrified politics to the point such discussion goes beyond the latest government policy. Nor has the NDP solidified support among the middle class, given how the margins against the HST has only gone down.

But it's wrong to assign so much meaning to Clark. She was voted in for being an image people trust, not by the apparatchiks had her back. These are still the most fluid times for BC politics in the past decade, and she is only now moving from stopgap to leader. It is true her presence brought Liberal support from the abyss, but whether that means she can solidify that in an election is another matter. Maybe she will have 100% support from a caucus after an election - a caucus half the size.