Assuming Trump gets only 6 delegates out of Wisconsin, what percentage of the remaining delegates does he need to win from here on out to reach a majority? Around 60%?
Assuming he wins 6 in WI and gets swept in the rest of CO and WY, he'd need to win 63% of the remaining pledged delegates in order to clinch on pledged delegates alone.
Tough, but doable; would require blowout wins in IN, CA, and NY, or a shock win in MT.
Of course, Trump is going to win some unpledged delegates. Based on our most recent information, I'm going to project he wins at least 20 unpledged delegates out of Pennsylvania. Combined with the rest of my projections, that puts him at 1205. If he can convince a fair chunk of the remainder of the PA delegation, as well as a few insular delegates, he may just be able to eke out a win on the first ballot.
Pennsylvania, Indiana, and California are the keys.
Trump will not win Indiana. He may have a shot in IN-2, IN-3, or IN-4, if delegates are apportioned by CD. IN-07 is Kasich Kountry if he's still in the race, and the rest belongs to Cruz.
IN-3 is Stutzman territory thus almost safe Cruz. I'm in IN-4 and it's almost as evangelical as 3 thus also Cruz (Cruz's dad is coming to Kokomo Thursday). Kasich will be shut out and Trump will at best get IN-1.
