The Field Poll is the gold standard of California polling (just as Ann Selzer is for Iowa). I put my absolute trust in it. Obviously, we're still about a year and half away from the election. With current demographics and the state of California politics, I think this poll is is probably quite accurate. I think Hillary will at least maintain the Obama coalition in California, which means something in the area of 60-62% statewide. I don't think any Republican candidate can even break 40% in California in 2016.
