US House Redistricting: Washington

[Sounder]

I'm sorry, but that just doesn't seem like a significant number of commuters to me.

You are looking at it from whale King County point of view.  Minnow Kittitas is heavily dependent on King County, not vice versa.  Since the new district needs to be a predominately Western district (opposite of 1970), why not link the portions of Eastern Washington with the most connectivity with Western Washington? 

[Sounder]

The other county is also across a river from its employment destination.

It could be Douglas County, depending on if the aluminum plant is in operation.

[Sounder]

The point was not that people commute over Satus Pass but do not commute over Snoqualmie Pass. Commutes were never mentioned by anyone until you came along, and we have now clearly demonstrated that no one commutes over either pass.

The discussion is linking population centers within a congressional district via Snoqualmie Pass or via Satus Pass as I have yet to see anyone propose gutting up Kennewick and Richland yet.   Facts show people indeed commute over Snoqualmie Pass.  A small number, but a significant % for a smaller populated county.

Since it is Satus vs. Snoqualmie, let's compare.  

So how many commuters over Satus Pass?  I can link data and news articles talking about the Snoqualmie commute.

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That's bunk.  I live here.  Vancouver and Centralia have very few connections with Yakima.  Meanwhile Ellensburg is home to a sizable amount of King County students and a sizable portion of Kittitas County's population commutes to King County.  Kittitas County is heavily dependant on King County.   Meanwhile Clark and Yakima are practically on different planets since these is so much rugged wilderness desolation and poor roads between the two.

[Sounder]

From 2000:

http://community.seattletimes.nwsource.com/archive/?date=20001016&slug=TTMB1UN0H

From 2004:

http://www.seattlepi.com/local/196639_longcommute25.html?dpfrom=thead

[Sounder]

There, the case for the Columbia River connection seems stronger by virtue of linking rural, exurban, and small city areas together, but I don't have personal connection.

Linking Vancouver (major Portland suburb) to Yakima is linking rural, exurban, and small city areas together?  Vancouver will be the 2nd largest population center in the state of Washington within the next decade or two.  

If you want to link rural, exurban, and small city, use the Central Cascades, but avoid the inner suburbs as much as possible.  The last map I posted does this.  

[Sounder]

Here's another version of the above map,

You put two incumbents into the 3rd.  Hastings lives in Pasco, Herrea in Clark County.  WA redistricting looks out for incumbents, which is why we probably shouldn't be too quick to put Bainbridge Island into the 6th despite Inslee's Gov. fantasies.

 I have been trying to do a Tri-Cities split, but haven't come up with anything clean yet.  

[Sounder]

I see people aren't nearly as opinionated about legislative districts as they are about the great Cascades-crossing debate. I wonder why...

Still working on my first map.  It takes awhile, especially if you are looking out for incumbents.

[Sounder]

Do you have a good list of where they live?  I have been using District finder, but many do not list where they live.  In the larger cities, it gets tougher unless they list what neighborhood they are from.  Other than Sam Hunt and Kathy Haigh, I have no clue specifically where any of them live. 

[Sounder]

Do Washington election precincts conform to Census Bureau Voter Tabulation Districts?

Most don't.  I worked on the Block Boundary Suggestion Project prior to the 2000 Census, and most precincts outside of the most urban areas  do not meet Census Bureau standards of having physical boundaries (roads, streams, power line cuts, etc.).

[Sounder]

A majority-minority congressional district is being proposed -I'd curious to see how everyone here would draw it.

Awful idea.  One of the great things about this state is the racial tranquility.  We are the very last state that needs this.   

[Sounder]

It's not like Congressmen moving is unprecedented, though. Baird moved to Vancouver after the 2000 redistricting, IIRC.

Brian Baird's former Olympia home is still within the 3rd District.  He moved to be closer to the largest population center in the district. 

[Sounder]

"The likelihood of a transcascade district that doesn't include the Columbia Gorge is flat zero. It's just not going to happen."

Ha

[Sounder]

The reality is that the bulk of the growth has been in the four districts represented by Republicans.

Eastern Washington is growing more slowly than western Washington. That's two of the districts.

The 8th and 3rd are in Western and SW Washington.  The 4th, which is in EW grew fast.  Tri-Cities, Vancouver, Olympia, and the deep Seattle periphery were the hot growth spots.

[Sounder]

How much of that overpopulation is in two districts, WA-8 and WA-3, one of which was held by a Democrat for the past decade?

If Linda Smith never vacated the seat to run for Senate, it probably wouldn't have been in Democrat hands going all the way back to 1994 (except maybe a take over in 2008).  Bush carried the 3rd in 2004.  It is a swing district that leans slightly right.  Take away Olympia and it gets much more right.   Olympia is split into the 9th and the 3rd.  The 9th section grew a lot faster, but the 3rd part of town is considerably heavier Democrat.