Next election predictions

[The Economist]

For the heck of it – a prediction for 2012 in depth.

President Obama announces for re-election in the spring or summer of 2011. He begins raising significant piles of cash (although nowhere near $1 billion). Republicans start announcing as well – Pawlenty, Thune, Romney, Gingrich, and Palin.

In Iowa, Thune wins a surprise victory while Romney rebounds in New Hampshire. Palin is shut out of both Iowa and New Hampshire and pins her hopes on South Carolina. Romney wins South Carolina and takes the nomination.

In the General, with the economy rebounding, the Republican ticket try to play on the themes of 2010 (energizing the tea party base, etc) and talking down Obamacare.  The voters, less angry than they were in 2010, decide to disregard a charismatic ticket and re-elect Obama/Biden.

Popular Vote

Obama: 54%
Romney: 45%

Electoral votes

Obama – 353
Romney – 185

Obama wins Arizona, Missouri and his 2008 states while ceding Indiana and North Carolina.
Romney wins the rest plus Indiana and North Carolina.

[The Economist]

Well, I mean, I don't think he wins Indiana and North Carolina for a second term, which adds up to 26 electoral votes lost. I think however the electoral range would be from 353 to 380.