US House Redistricting: Ohio

[krazen1211]

Your next challenge Torie: Drawn the Akron/Youngstown/Warren district.

Good news though. The actual census value for Cleveland's population is 397,000. The app is drawing it at 438,000 based on the estimates that apply to counties as a whole, so the Fudge district actually has some room to grow.

My 33k over district might not actually be big enough .


Here's the data if you really want to crunch those municipalities. The app seems to be overstimating the populations of Lorain and Elyria City as well by 12k combined. Euclid and Lakewood seem very close to accurate, and Parma is estimated under.


The Akron precincts in the app total 220k, compared to 200k in the census, but those precincts don't perfectly line up with the city borders.

Ohio cities as a whole completely got destroyed.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/census/profile/oh

[krazen1211]

I really, really hope that they don't end up putting anything in Akron in the Cleveland District. It makes everything so ugly.

The first concept of CD-13: This is drawing at 40k over, but I am confident that the new census results will put this district at population.

[krazen1211]

It does look Krazen if I follow your map (don't you like to make beautiful colors they way I do? That is half the fun!), that there is room to fit LaTourette into his NE corner without a snake around OH-11's Akron extension doesn't it (with perhaps only minor modifications to my black wall perhaps, or maybe there is something north of Warren that can be picked up)?   If so, I wonder what its partisan numbers are. The CD worries me a bit, which is why I probably will use some of OH-11's population growth, to eat away at some of its Dem precincts on LaTourette's western flank. But then that squeezes him some more, but he may need some more elbow on the other side of the wall to Pubbie him up if his current line with OH-11 does not meet partisan gerrymandering goals, and around and around we go.

I guess I'm missing something:

If you do the CD-11 wall, who picks up the rest of Akron? It looks to me like you're wrapping Latuorette around the wall, but that means he's cutting through the nonblack areas of Akron. Based on my map, the wall cuts off 40k population in Richfield, Bath, and Ghent (ie good territory which Larorette wants)

If you're not wrapping Latuorette around the wall, he's going south deep into the Mahoning Valley all the way to Warren itself. That's the main reason I've been hesitant to draw the wall; it seems  to screw CD-14 up.


I thought about what you said; and I just moved the prong.



Pretty clean. Mordor and northern Parma to into the Cleveland district. The light blue toledo district cuts through 40k pubbies in Avon Lake/Bay Village to snag the deep blue Lakewood. If the GOP is willing to drawn some 1 mile thick strip along Avon Lake/Bay Village and not actually take any population, some more of Parma can go into the blue district.


My CD-11 is pretty close to population; on the app its 50k over, which I think will end up totalling to be accurate. Any population picked up in Akron in that CD-11 has to be dropped somewhere, and I don't see anywhere good to drop it. I really don't like the idea of the wall because I don't see it helping.


Zoomed out a bit more, I can't wait to try this on the updated DRA whenever he gets around to doing it.:

[krazen1211]

Yes, but OH-11 won't be 50% black VAP, and it has to be. The Pubbies would be fools not to. The LaTourette CD just wraps around the southern edges of the OH-11 prong to Akron, and then gets out of the way on the other side. The Youngstown CD will still get its slug of the Akron action.

I didn't think of a CD from the west coming to grab the Pubbie zone in Cuyahoga. But then, I am just not that familiar with the Ohio map in the northwest and Columbus area - yet.

Your OH-09 Dem pack is less efficient. You lost maybe as much as 3 points, certainly two. Those lost points will have to be picked up by a Pubbie CD. That's pretty expansive, when we are already stretching things here.

Regarding the Columbus split (which yes will probably happen even if it may lie on the hog side of pigs get fat, and hogs get slaughtered side of the greed line, because a Pubbie butt is at stake), to minimize the odds that the Columbus Dem demographic bomb goes off, we will need to know what the areas of black, Hispanic and government and educational business expansion will be, and to where the socons, particularly those who know where their next pay check is coming from, and don't have to sweat too much about making ends meet for basic needs, are fleeing to get away from a town they used to like but now it just has too much a libertine socialistic moral relativism about it, along with an "excessive" amount of the spectrum of the rainbow in it. The Dem expansion areas need to be chopped up, as part of the process of chopping up the areas that are currently Dem, and the Pubbie expansion areas used for offset against the Dem expansion areas in the right mix. Absent that, this Columbus split thing is a disaster waiting to happen.

So the trick is to find how the same precincts have trended over the last decade, where the demographic changes have been, and what seems rips to "turn." So we need income data, and both income and demographic change data, from 2000 to now for the Columbus metro region. It would be nice to look at the 2000 and 2010 census data for each neighborhood, to get a sense of where the action is, and where things have been relatively quiet due to some barrier between one neighborhood and another that acts as a dam, be it a river, a municipal boundary, or a substantial change in neighborhood SES, or some ethnic barrier and river (Jewish areas tend to be friendly to the infusion of middle class blacks for example).

Ah. I thought a 3 way split of Akron was a bridge too far. As it stands, the final census stats on that CD-11 (Cuyahoga version) are 43.6% white, 47% black, 5.5% hispanic, and 2.3% asian. You be the judge as to whether that will satisfy the VRA here.

The Columbus district will be tricky. As I said, I theorize that a 70% Obama district can be drawn.

I wonder how the GOP will deal with Stivers.



Dave just updated Ohio's data in the app.


As it stands, that CD-11 I drew in post 115 was close to exact as far as the look of the district is concerned, so I won't repost it. Still, any prong to Akron has to come out of some of the deep blue territory I dumped into that CD-11; I guess you can keep Cleveland split between 2 districts and put some of the Cleveland proper in CD-9.


Keep in mind also that the West side of Cuyahoga isn't exactly West Texas pubbie territory. Those precincts and towns are 50/50 or so. They're ok, but not solid enough to anchor a strong Pubbie district. You probably don't want to keep them all together.

[krazen1211]

It's interesting that you guys are able to get the Dems down to 3 districts in the NE. Imho that is even more of a reason to give the Dems a seat in Columbus and make sure you don't lose any central or western Ohio seats even in a bad year. It would really suck for the pubbies if a few districts flipped in the northeast as well as Columbus. And the trend is in the wrong direction in Columbus for the GOP.

Ask and ye shall receive. This is drawn with the final numbers, screws Stivers, and gives everyone else 'safe' seats, although I'm not sure about the slate green 6th, and I'm not 100% sure about that 14th.

Between Stark County, Tuscawaras County, and the remainder of the Mahoning Valley outside of Youngstown/Warren, I tried to split it between 3 districts. I am also not sure if the orange district has an incumbent in it; someone might have to move.

Columbus is something I'm just not willing to crack anymore.




Keep in mind that Renacci lives in Medina County. I think you just put him in with Latuorette.

[krazen1211]

Do you know in what town Renacci  lives? I specialize in getting Pubbie incumbents back home. Yes, I'm a lawyer, and can hunt it down online through a title company (if he owns a home), but if you know, that would save me some time.

He was the mayor of Wadsworth. I presume he lives there; its in the southeast corner of Medina County.

He's practically neighbors with Sutton.

[krazen1211]

Krazen's map is nice, but OH-11 falling below 50% black VAP is the thing that I think tanks it. Plus it unleashes 2 or 3 Dem points into Pubbie CD's, and that would be just wrong.

I intentionally spaced out the pink and gold districts (Renacci and Latuorette) to have room for a channel, to take the Fudge district down to Akron, the Ryan district picking up more Democrats (either Massilliion or something in the Mahoning Valley), and the Toledo and Renacci districts picking up the shed population within Cuyahoga.

I don't like what it does to Renacci though, who has nicely picked up some of Richland and Morrow Counties and doesn't want to drop them.

[krazen1211]

Does anyone else feel it's far more likely that the Republicans will pack and crack Dems as much as possible--as shown in the maps--than that they will send Republican districts reaching very far afield to pick up safe counties?

The first part of the equation makes more sense to me than others. Republicans don't care what happens to Dems, but as in Wisconsin where a breakup of Milwaukee suburbs to drown Eau Claire in a sea of Republican precincts seems unlikely, so too is rural western and central Ohio legislators agreeing to splintering their districts in order to help out Republican reps in distant parts of the state. Krazen's map may effectively pack Dems, but no Republican wants to represent either the red or yellow districts in northern Ohio. Nor does Delaware County want a rep from Canton. Just my two cents.  

Anything is possible. But if you don't split the Cuyahoga suburban areas, you're basically putting Renacci in Kucinich's district rather than the other way around in what an even or so PVI district. That's also the biggest problem with the Fudge channel method.

Massachusetts Dems, incidentally, seem to have done the same thing. Look at how many districts enter the Boston Metro and the 1st/2nd split.



On another note, Columbus is exactly a CD in population and is 32% McCain.

[krazen1211]

Fascinating Muon2. So LaTourette's CD will just hug the PA border and slip past Youngstown on the east, and move down the Ohio River?  That is the only alternative. The final black VAP number kept me in a lot of suspense, and it was really pointless to start drawing until we knew, given the legalities. Actually I guess we still don't know it, except that it is below 50% with Krazen's much more aesthetic (but less efficient) plan, and that Akron is needed.  So you got your way!

I wonder if the Pubbies will draw OH-09 the way I drew it, to maximize efficiency. If they do, I don't think they need to worry about Sutton, no matter how you draw LaTourette's CD. His Dems have been pretty well scooped up, and some more will be I am quite sure when the final census numbers come in.

The efficiency argument is interesting. By moving Akron precincts from Dem district 13 to Dem district 11, you free up space in Dem district 13, but if you look at it, the Dem areas around Canton can be very easily cracked by central Ohio districts that are already 54+% McCain.


That blue district (Tiberi's 12th) is already 55% McCain. Making it 57% McCain is probably unneeded.

Renacci is the only incumbent next to your pick Cuyahoga district, and he'd be getting all new territory while some other guy has an R+12 district. The distribution of pubbies is just as important as the number; other than Latuorette (who can't be helped much) and Boehner (who gets what he wants) each other guy should have his fair share. I don't see that in your pink district.

[krazen1211]

It's true that the Massachusetts congressional map links far-flung areas, and it's not right, but it happened for different reasons (protecting incumbents as seats were lost) and has a different impact. If we had a more closely-divided legislature, and Dems from Bristol County and the Cape and Islands held the balance in the legislature, they'd never accede to the current map. Instead, we'd have Rep. Marc Montigny.

I hear what you're saying about the need to shore up Republicans once the Dems in the northeast are packed. But I think resistance from the Republican regions needed to shore them up is going to prevent the maximal pack.

The main difference here is that Ohio Republicans have the speaker of the house. Boehner can probably get through whatever maps he wants.

[krazen1211]

I think maybe OH-10 is the candidate to punch through through the Akron wrap, to pick up folks from OH-14 perhaps. It is going to lose a ton of folks in its southern sector to get OH-06 up to its required population. We may be headed towards a triple chop of Stark County, in tandem with the triple chop of Summit.  Or perhaps OH-06 can do it. It is one or the other, and will depend on the partisan numbers. I am glad the Pubbie incumbent in OH-16 does not live in Stark, so I don't have to worry about putting him in some other CD per the Stark slice and dice.

And is the Columbus chop going to be a triple chop or a quad chop?  That is another question.

Stark is a McCain County once you dig out Canton City into OH-13.

Why don't you redraw your map with the updated 2010 census figures in DRA? That should eliminate some guesswork.

[krazen1211]

What is DRA?

Dave's redistricting app?

[krazen1211]

Just checking; don't want to read through the entire thread. You're going for 13-3 here?

I think Torie is.

I'm going with the eliminate Kucinich/Sutton, screw Stivers map, which is 12-4. Stivers gets thrown into a Dem vote sink.

[krazen1211]

Approximate McCain percentages on this map.

Chabot   51% McCain
Schmidt   54% McCain
Turner   53% McCain
Jordan   58% McCain
Latta   52% McCain
Johnson   53% McCain
Austria   56% McCain
Boehner   62% McCain
Kaptur   27% McCain
Gibbs   56% McCain
Fudge   21% McCain
Tiberi   55% McCain
Ryan   26% McCain
Latuor   50% McCain
Stivers   30% McCain
Renacci   53% McCain

[krazen1211]

Let's see. If the Dem core of Columbus was carried by Obama by 70-30, with 720,000 people, that means the Obama margin was 288,000 (720,000 x .4).  So even if we do a quin chop, with that margin evenly divided, that means each of the 5 chop CD's starts out with an Obama margin of 57,600 votes!  A quad chop is -72,000 each. So all the chop CD's are going to have a tough time even getting to 50% McCain. And if it is much less, than suddenly the CD's become marginal. Krazen, are you sure that the margin for your little Columbus CD was 70-30? That does seem high.

Columbus itself voted:

107574 McCain
232494 Obama

That's 32% McCain, and there are some conservatives areas in the northwest corner (I think?),  that can be cut out and towns like Bexley added.

[krazen1211]

How hard would it be to add some extra points to Chabot without weakening Schmidt or Turner (well, Turner's hypothetical successor)?
Jordan and Latta's districts look horrid - since it doesn't serve to make both safe seats, what is the purpose behind that? Something to do with residence? Or would a more reasonable-looking geographic split be even more uneven?
Also, you're taking a bit of a gamble with Johnson's seat - it's not a given that the disconnect between presidential and congressional vote shares in these kinds of areas is gone for good just because it was obliterated in 2010.

Latta lives in Bowling Green (Wood County) and is probably better known in the immediate Toledo area (western Lucas County). Beyond that, I wanted to give Latta the most conservative rurals (Putnam, Allen counties), and pull out the less conservative rurals (Huron county)

I don't think Chabot can be helped much; that said, 51% McCain should be enough given turnout there in midterm years.

[krazen1211]

Let's see. If the Dem core of Columbus was carried by Obama by 70-30, with 720,000 people, that means the Obama margin was 288,000 (720,000 x .4).  So even if we do a quin chop, with that margin evenly divided, that means each of the 5 chop CD's starts out with an Obama margin of 57,600 votes!  A quad chop is -72,000 each. So all the chop CD's are going to have a tough time even getting to 50% McCain. And if it is much less, than suddenly the CD's become marginal. Krazen, are you sure that the margin for your little Columbus CD was 70-30? That does seem high.

Columbus itself voted:

107574 McCain
232494 Obama

That's 32% McCain, and there are some conservatives areas in the northwest corner (I think?),  that can be cut out and towns like Bexley added.

Oh yes, the entire population doesn't actually vote does it? My bad! I need a nap.

339k turnout in a city that had ~750k people at the time (now 787k) is rather low. National turnout in 2008 was 64%.

Imagine if Columbus Dems started voting....

[krazen1211]

I think cutting up the northeast is a good idea (seems like an area that will swing around only to be dissapointed by both parties), but messing around with Columbus is going to burn the Republicans. The pubbies in PA seem to be more reasonable. Why is that?

Ohio Republicans haven't actually commented on much. We don't know if they're actually trying to do a 13-3 map; they've actually hinted that the aren't, or at least that such will be 'incredibly difficult'.

[krazen1211]

Interestingly, Stu Rothenburg pegs Renacci as a weak incumbent who benefited inordinately from the wave. He also picks out Buerkle and Ellmers as behaving like one-term wonders, and Dold and Meehan as strong reps.

I have to believe Renacci would be in trouble against a Cuyahoga democrat (not Kucinich!) under that map.

[krazen1211]

You're right about Johnson getting areas around Canton, of course. Forgot to take that into account. (And for the last time: Betty Sutton takes the female third person personal pronoun. )
It does make me wonder, but this is really for after your map is finished: What's the safest map that R's can draw themselves, chopping Columbus but throwing one of their northern congresscritters under the bus and eliminating only one of Sutton and Kucinich (I presume that would end up drawing them into a single district together)? As I said, for afterwards. Please finish this. I ask mostly because it does seem quite possible that the three northern D's plan would be rejected as too dangerous, if this is the best you can do.
(The Columbus chop is a necessary condition to any 4 northern Ds map, obviously - the GOP is not going to voluntarily give up both abolished seats.)

Under any strong 4 district plan, the 4th district has to go in Columbus, which is both more Democratic and faster growing than any 4th district in the North would be.

[krazen1211]

Which just means that any map that all the R's intended as winning are actually happy with and safe (barring events) under, is an 11-5 map (or rather 10-5-1 taking account of Chabot's. 9-5-2 after Turner retires, should that happen during the decade. Unless Torie pubbied those up. Oh yeah, 8-5-3 if LaTourette retires, though I see no reason why he should.). Which, however, is exceedingly unlikely to actually happen - as that would mean Republicans abolishing two Republican districts.

True, you do have to gamble somewhere with a 12-4 map. That means leaving Johnson's district intact and hoping he can hold it; although the removal of Athens would help.

You're correct about Latuorette, but not so much about Chabot and Turner. Both of them can be put into a district that has at least a Republican tilt simply by spreading out Mean Jean's GOP strength a bit, and Boehner chipping in a point or two here and there. On my map in post 154 I put them in 51/53% McCain districts; it could be 53/53 if Mr. Boehner would consent to grabbing some Hamilton County blacks.

The good thing about Ohio is that they have a couple heavy hitters in Congress; I expect Boehner's team to be actually dictating the maps, just as Cantor's team did in Virginia and Hastert's team in Illinois 10 years ago. So, they won't have to worry about much about 'local' concerns about undesirable maps, unlike, say, Arkansas and Louisiana, the latter of which is obviously struggling with intraparty bickering. But if Louisiana had a committee chairman somewhere, there would be an obvious need to protect his district, and the rest of the map would fall into place.

The good thing is that Sutton and Kucinich have essentially no cross-party appeal. Sutton, for example, always loses that strip of territory in southern Cuyahoga County, even in 2006.

[krazen1211]

Hastert didn't dictate the map in IL, that was a prime example of how politicians sometimes put their interests ahead of their party's interests.  Chicago Democrats were fine with a Republican incumbent protection plan that took away one non-Chicago Democratic seat because things were less polarized which meant that they gained some influence from having Hastert as Speaker.  Also, I doubt Cantor dictated the Virginia map, as he wasn't a top member of the House Republican leadership yet.  Remember, in PA they didn't go with the map national Republicans originally wanted, that could certainly happen here.  

I also suspect Schmidt would've lost to Hackett in the district Torie's drawn for her.

I didn't mean the 2000 Virginia map.

Cantor, Goodlatte, and Connolly pretty much wrote the upcoming Virginia map, not the 2000 one. At least that's what reports are saying.

As far as 2000 Illinois is concerned, you're right about the reason Chicago Democrats did it, but as I understand it Hastert was heavily involved in the actual lines. The 8th district for instance was designed to protect Phil Crane although he lost it anyway, even while W was winning there easily.

[krazen1211]

Horrible - just horrible!  Do you think the Ohio Pubbies are that dumb, or into masochism, or what, Brittain33?

No, I think that's just silly thinking from silly leftists.

Why on earth would they unsplit Lucas county when its already split, and really needs to be split further given how many pubbies are there West of Toledo? Especially while putting Oberlin in a GOP district...

Masochism, though, is your 4 way split of Columbus, Torie.

[krazen1211]

Why on earth would they unsplit Lucas county when its already split, and really needs to be split further given how many pubbies are there West of Toledo?

Eh, I'm not so detail-focused on things like that. It's the rough shape of the districts that matters.

Well, its those details that make him create what I believe we have easily proven to be a completely unnecessary 4th district in Northern Ohio. He's drowning hundreds of thousands of Republican leaning areas in the Democratic districts.

He's splitting other counties anyway, compared to what I did (Medina for instance).

[krazen1211]

Let me throw some lighter fluid onto the fire: Pat Tiberi is suddenly talking about running for the Senate. What happens if he vacates his marginal Columbus-area seat?

Hopefully, they just pack his district with Columbus Democrats.