US House Redistricting: North Carolina

[krazen1211]

in the next big dem wave election, hopefully this would be a dummymander

Its not likely to be.  Dummymanders usually involve spreading your voters too thin across multiple districts, and of the 10 Republican-leaning ones, I think they're all more Republican than any seat the Democrats currently hold in NC.  Even if Ellmers and Foxx lose, their seats will almost certainly be picked up by the Republicans again later on, simply because Democrats usually can't hold on to 55% McCain districts for very long.

Either way, the map is almost guaranteed to see a net Republican gain in seats, so in that way it's highly unlikely to wind up backfiring on the Republicans any time soon.

There really is only 1 place this can backfire, potentially: District 7 and 8, where the GOP went for both but could have split the difference and just take 1 and yielded the other.

Of course, we saw the same tradeoffs with the Illinois map where they went greedy.

[krazen1211]

So they went for 10-3; not exactly unexpected. McHenry and Foxx's districts are diluted, but probably not enough to cause them to lose. I do think they're playing with fire making NC-12 majority-black; that could open the district up to being declared an unconstitutional racial gerrymander.

Black VAP is 49.35%.

[krazen1211]

McHenry about 57-42 McCain.

The new 4th isn't even close to being another VRA district. I have it as 51% white, 29% black. Its just a Democratic vote sink thats roughly 70% Obama.

I projecting it at 69.6% Obama 29.6% McCain.

I'll take issue with the claim that isn't "even close to being another VRA district."  I reasonably expect Price to retire within the decade, and due to the inclusion of Duke, UNC, and, I believe, NCST, I don't think it is unreasonable to believe that a "person of color [other than peach]"  will win within the decade.

I have read lecture after lecture about how a 40% Black district is allegedly VRA compliant since it is probable that such a district would nominate a Black Democrat in the primary and that that Black Democrat would win the general. Why not 29% if it is probable to nominate a Black Democrat whom is likely to win the general?

The track record of such districts is heavily in the favor of whites. Don't kid yourself and pretend otherwise.

[krazen1211]

No one's mentioned the actually pointless ugly cruelty yet... Robeson/Scotland/Hoke. Not only is that unjustifiable by any standard, what they did is probably not actually going to be enough to get rid of McIntyre. Mark my words.

What cruelty is that, exactly?

Good map for Pantano, as he will be a solid fit for the new counties.

[krazen1211]

No one's mentioned the actually pointless ugly cruelty yet... Robeson/Scotland/Hoke. Not only is that unjustifiable by any standard, what they did is probably not actually going to be enough to get rid of McIntyre. Mark my words.

What cruelty is that, exactly?

Ever had a look at the demographics of the area?

In Robeson County they kind of split some of the native American community...but I have no idea what you're referring to with the other counties.

[krazen1211]

The funny things is that - for once - he isn't entirely wrong in questioning assumptions about electoral movement in NC that have become the orthodoxy here.

Job growth has stalled in North Carolina. One wonders why these massive groups of Yankees would be moving there nowadays.

[krazen1211]

North Carolina maps.

http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Rucho_Senate_1&Body=Senate


33 districts that McCain won.
2 districts between 50-53% Obama.

15 districts above 59% Obama.

[krazen1211]

North Carolina maps.

http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Rucho_Senate_1&Body=Senate


33 districts that McCain won.
2 districts between 50-53% Obama.

15 districts above 59% Obama.

That's not that much different than the current map.  The current map has 30 McCain districts and 20 Obama districts.

The key issue is avoiding the donut hole of 53-59% districts which are inefficient packs.

In 2010 senate, 33 districts are 57%+ Burr, and 15 districts are 54%+ Marshall. Only 2 are in between.

[krazen1211]

NC legislative maps up at the same link.

34 seats where Obama got 55%+.
8 seats where Obama got 50-55%.

60 seats where McCain got 55%+
18 seats where McCain got 50-55%.

[krazen1211]

It certainly would be interesting to see how they get Onslow County into a Republican district (and not the 3rd).

Hideous, and really accomplishes little. Every district here meets the 55% standard except the 9th; it turns out you have to split Mecklenberg 3 ways to get that district higher than the 52% I got. But that should be enough.

[krazen1211]

I suspect NC Republicans would have a bit of an aversion to touch-point for obvious reasons.

Even that doesn't matter much. You simply connect via Franklin County's edge instead. Loses you some marginal points, but that's it.

It's not like the Democrats haven't done it before.

[krazen1211]

Here's the same map without touch point and without some bad county splits in the proposed map. I bumped CD-12 up to 79% obama.

[krazen1211]

Butterfield's whining put them in a worse position. Districts 1 and 4 are racked and packed even harder. McIntyre had a better shot to hold the old district than this one.


And lol.


For example, based upon the results of the 2008 General Election, Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper would have carried twelve of thirteen districts in Rucho-Lewis 1 and all thirteen districts in Rucho-Lewis 2.

[krazen1211]

They definitely did no worse than the existing map.

The existing map has a 4th district that reflects a sensible community of interest. It doesn't stretch all the way to Fayetteville for partisan gain.

The existing map only splits Wake County three ways, which is bad enough. The Republican map splits it four ways.

The existing map only splits Forsyth County two ways, and only to accomodate the VRA district. The Republican map splits it three ways.

The existing map leaves the city of Asheville intact. The Republican map splits it for partisan gain.

The existing map leaves Harnett County intact. The Republican map splits it three ways for partisan gain and to prevent an Etheridge comeback.

The existing map splits Rowan and Davidson Counties only two ways. The Republican map splits them three ways.

Furthermore, the Republican map also seems to keep the most egregious splits from the existing map:
          -Three-way split of Cumberland County? Check.
          -Three-way split of Guilford County? Check, although at least they got rid of the touch-point contiguity, I think. The 12th looks pretty damn narrow there.

Now, I'm certainly not saying that the existing map is fair. It is definitely a Democratic gerrymander. But this map takes gerrymandering to a whole new level.

They cleaned up much of this.


3 way split in Mecklenberg? Mostly gone, there appear to be 5000 people in Mecklenberg.

3 way split of Forscyth? Gone.

3 way split of Guilford? Gone.

4 way split of Wake? Back to 3.

There are of course some things that still need to go, like that 7th sticking into both Robeson and Scotland. I see why they stuck all the New Hanover blacks into 3 though.

[krazen1211]

Of course, whether Butterfield cares is another matter.

He probably doesn't want a primary from an urban black.

[krazen1211]

Some more numbers.

NC1: 65/35 Kerry
NC2: 64/36 Bush
NC3: 62/38 Bush
NC4: 62/38 Kerry
NC5: 65/35 Bush
NC6: 63/37 Bush
NC7: 62/38 Bush
NC8: 63/37 Bush
NC9: 64/35 Bush
NC10: 64/36 Bush
NC11: 64/35 Bush
NC12: 69/30 Kerry
NC13: 63/37 Bush

NC1: 68/32 Marshall
NC2: 62/38 Burr
NC3: 63/37 Burr
NC4: 68/32 Marshall
NC5: 65/35 Burr
NC6: 64/36 Burr
NC7: 63/37 Burr
NC8: 62/38 Burr
NC9: 64/36 Burr
NC10: 61/39 Burr
NC11: 63/37 Burr
NC12: 73/27 Marshall
NC13: 60/40 Burr



Edit: Thanks, X, I corrected the spreadsheet and fixed the numbers.

[krazen1211]

I hope this map will be heading to the courts.

Oh, it will. You're just unlikely to get anything there. This map is of course vicious as they are out for blood.

Georgia will be fun.

[krazen1211]

Uh, what exactly can you do in Georgia besides weakening Barrow? Not much opportunity there to be aggressive.

Depends on what they want to do with the Bishop district. I suggest adding the remainder of Muskogee County.

Plus there's the local level maps.

[krazen1211]

my hope is that the majorities are spread so thin that a 1974-like election occurs again something this decade so krazen will go into a corner and cry like a five year old.

It's possible. Roy Cooper won all 13 seats on this map.

[krazen1211]

Uh, what exactly can you do in Georgia besides weakening Barrow? Not much opportunity there to be aggressive.

Depends on what they want to do with the Bishop district. I suggest adding the remainder of Muskogee County.

Plus there's the local level maps.

VRA. 4/14 = 28%; GA is 30% black. They will need a fourth black-majority district. Either Barrow's district is turned into a black majority one or, more likely, Bishop gets saved. (Alternatively, the Republicans could draw an Atlanta-to-Macon district and rip apart Bishop's seat, but I don't see why they'd prefer that to shoring up Bishop.)

That's a load of nonsense as shown by the last Democratic Georgia map.

[krazen1211]

The Georgia legislature may try for three black seats, but they will lose in the courts, and it won't even be a close question. The black population is greater now than it was in 2000. 4/13 is 31%, while the black population in 2000 was 29%. 4/14 is 28%, and the black population is 30%.

The 2000 map didn't dilute the black vote in SW Georgia to the point of being unable to elect their preferred candidate, anyway. Any map that tries to get rid of Sanford Bishop would be doing so.

Your math is incorrect. The last Democratic map held only 2 majority black seats. 2 out of 13 is 15%.

The rest is just mindless speculation.

[krazen1211]

Of course it is baseless speculation, and of course you are wrong about the facts. That district in fact was 47% black. There is no reason whatsoever for the good Georgia legislature to buy your discredited nonsense!

GA-2 is of course surrounded by plenty of potential whites to add and very few potential blacks.



David Scott (D-GA) also won in a newly-created 47 percent black district in the 2002 open seat election in the 13th district of Georgia.


http://www.ucdc.edu/faculty/Voting_Rights/Papers/7%20-%20Grose.pdf

[krazen1211]

New map out.

Minor pro-Shuler changes.

http://www.wral.com/asset/news/state/nccapitol/2011/07/21/9888766/congress_2A.PDF

[krazen1211]

http://www.stamfordadvocate.com/news/article/NC-lawmakers-OK-redistricting-for-3-sets-of-maps-1578520.php#page-1

Done deal. Lock and load.

[krazen1211]

"The judges will see the maps for what they are, and what they are is an attempt to disenfranchise African Americans by segregating them and diminishing their voting rights and the influence of women in North Carolina," said Rep. Deborah Ross, D-Wake, as the House debated proposed House districts



lol? how did they do that?