US House Redistricting: Florida

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Interesting note #2. I was wondering why they changed FL-13 from its original configuration (Manatee and Sarasota Counties) to its new configuration (the coastal areas of Manatee, Sarasota, and Charlotte Counties).

Well, it looks like they cut the house district of Dem Challenger Keith Fitzgerald in 2.

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Here's the Obama Mccain figures for both maps.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At9k6QrlThx6dEZ1Q1FZWFlXWjA4d1BlSmNHdklSdkE&hl=en_US#gid=0

The House map seems to be the one that people are going on. Senate map adheres to the old numbering while the House map renumbers.

On the House map:

FL-6 - Mica, based around Daytona Beach
FL-7 - Adams, based in Seminole County
FL-13 - Young, based in Pinellas
FL-16 - Rooney, new district based around Charlotte Harbor
FL-18 - West, Rooney's old district in St. Lucie
FL-22 - ?, the Republican areas of Palm Beach/Broward
FL-25, 36, 27 - Cuban districts
FL-9 - ?, new district based on Kissimmee/Orlando

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I've also found all the statistics I could want except for voting results (which I suppose they aren't supposed to officially take into account and are not releasing for that reason).

Some more on the merry-go-round: Mica and Adams both live in the leanish-R Seminole district; Mica will run in the safer Volusia district instead. Nugent and... I forget who... both live in the safe 11th, one of them will have to run in the even safer 3rd instead. I wonder what Bilirakis thinks of that 15th the House drew him - safe R and all, but quite a new district when earlier plans incl. the Senate map had his old district more or less in one piece.

Everyone knows where the Republicans are anyway. Nugent and Stearns are combined.

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In the legally mandated Florida Supreme Court review of the finalized map, what sort of precedent/authority do they have? If they don't approve the legislature's map, can they draw it themselves, or send it back to the legislature with a list of needed changes, or what?

General rule of thumb is that the legislature has the first right to fix legislation.

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Incidentally that district is the 54% McCain one...ie Ironclad, compared to the other 2. VAPs on the 3 cuban districts are 71, 69, 75, respectively.

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Incidentally that district is the 54% McCain one...ie Ironclad, compared to the other 2.

Of course, of course - it's the Diaz Balart district (though Mario continues to live in his former district FL25/6 and, hilariously, Rivera's home was drawn into this district. No, they will not switch.) But you need to regard the three district area, really. Move it further east, you'll always continue to have one ironclad district for a Diaz Balart but the GOP's chances at the other two weaken (not necessarily to the point where they'll have to actually concede one.)

I'd have to look at the population totals. The current cuban districts already extend into Collier County....but keep in mind those area around the everglades are basically empty. I'm not sure how much more population from Collier was added to the tri district area, but I don't believe its much.

If its not much, the option probably remains to skim random precincts from the black district or wasserman schultz and leave the other 2 cubans alone.

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Revised Florida Senate map upheld.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/04/gaetz-tells-senate-elections-will-be-held-on-time.html


The GOP of course will continue to retain large majorities in the chamber.

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Florida Congressional map precleared.

http://atr.rollcall.com/justice-department-pre-clears-florida-congressional-map/


And supported by a judge.

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/content/judge-rejects-dems-attempt-put-congressional-map-hold-during-trial


He said that absent a determination that the map is unconstitutional "I do not have the authority to replace it with another map while the case is pending." Absent that, he said the result would be that the 2002 map would remain in effect -- a map, he said "was admittedly drawn to favor the Republican Party and incumbents."



That would be very funny indeed if the judge used the 2002 map with 2 at large districts.

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http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/debbie-wasserman-schultz-nan-rich-rod-smith-tried-gerrymander-blamed-gop-doing-same



Florida Democrats were scheming to concoct some vicious gerrymanders.

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I'll see if I can at least get the 25th to 60% without the Monroe change. Also, it's not possible to get the 3rd to 40% with all of Alachua, Palatka, a small piece or Clay and the Duval piece (still in the 36-37% neighborhood). It can't even be done by splitting Alachua, just taking 120K of the highest percentage AA precincts. Furthermore adding more Duval than in already included in the version from this afternoon drops Democratic Performance. The best I can do with the onstruction
depicted in the attached is 52.2% Dem Performance and 38.4% Total Black/37.8% non-Hispanic Black %.


No wonder Corrine Brown was upset.

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http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/emails-show-group-sought-to-protect-wasserman-schultz-seat-in-redistricting/2118646

A liberal group involved in a lawsuit to make Florida's congressional districts less partisan engaged in its own partisan efforts by drawing Democratic-heavy Hispanic seats or trying to "scoop" Jewish voters into a district for U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, the Democratic National Committee chair, emails show.

The Fair Districts map-maker, Wieneke, noted in the same email that the constitution bans favoring or disfavoring incumbents or parties.

"OK, generally we want a map that looks like it is doing this, but Democrats currently have 6 of 25 seats and all 6 of those seats are minority majority or minority coalition seats," he wrote Oct. 16, 2011. "Underlying goal is to increase the number of safe Democratic seats and the number of competitive seats."

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'Those damn leftists. Oh well, at least conservatives never try to maximize their seats or pack voters.

Who said that?

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Florida has a comparable black population to Georgia, which of course has 4 black districts.  Or Texas, which also has 4 black districts. Or New York, which also has 4 black districts. It would be quite curious to see the legislature thus create a Florida map with only 2 black districts.

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Florida has a comparable black population to Georgia, which of course has 4 black districts.  Or Texas, which also has 4 black districts. Or New York, which also has 4 black districts. It would be quite curious to see the legislature thus create a Florida map with only 2 black districts.

How concentrated a minority population is also has an impact on how easy it is to draw minority-majority districts.

Exactly. Without Section 5 the question of compactness for a VRA district looms large. When a minority only exists in a number of disconnected urban centers does Section 2 mandate the creation of a district where that minority can elect a representative of choice? If so, how much of a stretch is permitted to have a mandated minority district? If the Louisiana suit moves forward it may well provide an answer.

Whether is it mandated is separate from whether it is justified as a permissible choice made by a legislature. This is especially so when Florida has fewer districts of this type than other states.


A proposed New York State map drew a district connecting Harlem to areas in Westchester County in order to preserve the 4th black district. Harlem and Westchester County might be geographically closer than Jacksonville and Orlando but are certainly quite distinct.

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A legislature can endeavor to do that and as long as they show that race was a factor but not the predominant factor for the district then it should be permissible. If the district is strangely shaped connecting disparate areas and race is the predominant factor then it would likely be thrown out like the NC-12 districts of the 1990s.

The 11th circuit in 2002 validated the apportionment plan passed by that legislature. In doing so, they noted that the 3rd district (now the 5th) was reasonably compact, and was intentionally drawn with the reasonable purpose of giving the black population 1 district in North Florida. That case never reached the Supreme Court. The membership of the Supreme Court has mostly cycled over since the 1990s in any case.