US House Redistricting: Georgia

[krazen1211]

Here ya go. This hideous miscarriage of justice clocks in at a 53.8% VAP.

It's not clean, but I'd guess the PVI on that is about 5 points better than the Columbus Albany Macon district.

Does Augusta have its share of white liberals? Richmond County is 51% black and 66% Obama, so it does seem like there are a few.

[krazen1211]

There's no way that district would pass muster. The courts would simply say that incumbent protection could be accomplished in a much easier fashion without combining communities obviously of not similar interest.

Incumbent protection wouldn't be the justification here; obviously the GOP has no interest in protecting Democratic incumbents.

[krazen1211]

Also, regarding Louisiana, it's quite likely that Landry that'll be getting the axe and I really doubt the state won't keep LA-2 black majority; aside from legal concerns it's also an extremely convenient Democratic vote sink. But that's a discussion for amother thread

Oh, I wasn't referring to the 2nd district, but rather maintaining the 2nd district and converting the 4th into another black district.

That's what the Louisiana Legislative Black Caucus wants, anyway, and some of them think the DOJ is their vehicle to get it. But hell will freeze over before it happens, even though its 'theoratically ' possible. I suspect we'll see the same thing in LA, AL, GA, and SC: We'll see 60-65% packs come out of the legislature, and the DOJ will pick its response.

[krazen1211]

Exactly; Decatur is not culturally Southern at all.

Also, you'll probably find about a state House district's worth of white liberals in Savannah.

How many of those will actually be drawn? The 2 in Athens? It should be easy to put the white liberals in black districts based on residence.

[krazen1211]

Given Muon's comments about the De Grandy decision and the recent Louisiana preclearance, it seems pretty likely that 10-4 with an attack on Barrow will be ruled constitutional. It's possible to get the 12th up to 56% McCain while keeping the 1st, 8th and 10th all at 59/60 without any of the squiggly stuff courts don't like on the borders among these districts, and without any major modifications to the rest of the state. I think this is much more likely than the attack on Bishop discussed earlier in the thread, which would require one of the GOP incumbents to get a much less white district. With all incumbent residences in the district of the same number and the new 14th district in the region of the redistricters' Hall County base:



(All race numbers VAP)
1 (blue): 59/41 McCain, 65% W
2 (forest green): 61/39 Obama, 51% B
3 (purple): 65/34 McCain, 72% W
4 (red): 80/19 Obama, 52% B
5 (yellow): 81/18 Obama, 51% B
6 (dark green north Atlanta): 60/39 McCain, 66% W
7 (grey): 66/33 McCain, 69% W
8 (purply-blue): 60/40 McCain, 64% W
9 (pale blue NW): 70/28 McCain, 84% W
10 (pink): 60/39 McCain, 71% W
11 (light green): 60/39 McCain, 65% W
12 (pale blue central): 56/44 McCain, 61% W (currently D+1)
13 (beige): 70/29 Obama, 57% B
14 (bronze): 74/25 McCain, 78% W

Not a bad plan. Now you just need to unpack the bronze district. You can do that by giving it part of the blueing areas of north Fulton, or by diving it down into central Gwinnett, or by giving it Athens and telling Broun to take a hike by giving him Hall County.

[krazen1211]

http://www.ajc.com/news/georgia-politics-elections/ga-redistricting-maps-may-988985.html

As has been hinted, likely going straight to the court past the DOJ.

Georgia Republicans may bypass the Obama Justice Department and go straight to court after they draw new legislative maps this summer.





Good punishment for the 2000 map.

[krazen1211]

A similar map to the above, with a cleaner CD-02.






Uglier elsewhere though. I don't like the Dekalb split.

[krazen1211]

Full disclosure: Jim, this is not the real GA GOP map. This is the map I drew as my estimate of what GA Republicans might do in my May book, “Better Know a District.” – David Wasserman, Cook Political Report.



A good thing too because that map stinks!

[krazen1211]

http://www.ajc.com/news/georgia-politics-elections/democratic-leader-accuses-gop-1088555.html

Republicans who are controlling the process, she said, plan to create 49 "majority-minority" House districts, an increase of seven over the current configuration. "They accomplished this by purging the state of Georgia of white Democrats," Abrams, who is black, said. "Almost without exception in the Fulton-DeKalb area, if you are a white Democrat who is near an African-American, you were paired and you are going to have to run against one another.




Amusing! Suddenly the Democrats don't believe in minority districts again.

[krazen1211]

http://www.ajc.com/news/georgia-politics-elections/democratic-leader-accuses-gop-1088555.html

Republicans who are controlling the process, she said, plan to create 49 "majority-minority" House districts, an increase of seven over the current configuration. "They accomplished this by purging the state of Georgia of white Democrats," Abrams, who is black, said. "Almost without exception in the Fulton-DeKalb area, if you are a white Democrat who is near an African-American, you were paired and you are going to have to run against one another.




Amusing! Suddenly the Democrats don't believe in minority districts again.

The Fulton-DeKalb area did not have the robust growth of the outer suburbs, so some seats had to be eliminated. It is a neat trick to claim "regression" if a Black seat is eliminated, while pleading the "purging of White Democrats" if no Black seats are eliminated.

Yes sir! At least 4 districts in the Senate (1 in Atlanta, 1 in Dekalb, 2 in South Georgia) should all be dissolved and relocated to the growing suburbs.

[krazen1211]

Would your GA-02 be considered Racial Gerrymandering?

I don't see how. It's more compact than most black-majority districts, and for the most part respects county boundaries. I don't see how they could uphold something like NC-12 and toss out this version of GA-2.

A GA-02 that splits Macon along racial lines like that (along with other counties) has already been rejected in Georgia district court.

[krazen1211]

Oh, wait, you're talking about Miller v. Johnson, doh.

I think this is much worse than my 2nd district:



Also the map-makers could just claim it's incumbency protection, which is perfectly permissible.

That it certainly is. Whether it is in the GOP's best interest to create such a district for the perpetually 'barely winning' Bishop is another question.

[krazen1211]

Here's my best effort for a 11-3 plan...



1st: R+9, 64% white
2nd: R+8, 58% white
3rd: R+13, 64% white
4th: D+20, 50% black
5th: D+26, 59% black
6th: R+13, 65% white
7th: R+16, 61% white
8th: R+8, 59% white
9th: R+22, 80% white
10th: R+13, 71% white
11th: R+16, 69% white
12th: R+7, 61% white
13th: D+16, 55% black
14th: R+26, 83% white
(edit: PVI's are approximations because I dun goof'd; see next post)
Dubious legality, I think, under the VRA.

Bishop and Barrow both get cut out of their districts; the new 2nd and 12th favor the GOP but could still go Democratic in a bad year. The 8th district would see a Bishop vs. Austin Scott fight where the latter would be favored, but still under significant risk. The Kingston vs. Barrow matchup happens like in my other map.

The 3rd, 10th, and possibly even the 6th could all be at risk in a bad year later in the decade: Westmoreland would hate Macon being placed into his district, and would also have to deal with Coweta and Fayette trending to the left later in the decade; Broun would hate getting a second college town put into his district (GCSU in Milledgeville) and would face unfriendly trends in Henry, Newton, and Spaulding. Tom Price is a bit more insulated from demographic change thanks to the higher property values in north Fulton (Alpharetta/Roswell/etc.), but I've always considered it inevitable that Buckhead will eventually start voting Democratic like similar neighborhoods on the East Side of Atlanta already do.

So, yeah. A 11R-3D map that would possibly be a stable but could just as easily have 10D-4R delegation later in the decade.

I would consider sacrificing compactness, in favor of, say, swapping Hall and Clarke Counties.

[krazen1211]

http://savannahnow.com/news/2011-08-10/kingston-okay-district-including-all-chatham-if-it-keeps-its-military-bases

Kingston is willing to take Chatham and Effingham.

[krazen1211]

Legislative maps!

http://www.legis.ga.gov/Joint/reapportionment/en-US/default.aspx

On the senate map, 2 black Democrats cannibalized this guy in the Columbus/Albany area.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Hooks

[krazen1211]

Tough to see.

The  southern portion of Cobb County (district 6, held by a Dem) was chopped and thrown in with the expansion of the Atlanta black districts. District 6 now routes into Sandy Springs.

I don't see how the Democrats hold that one.

Doug Stoner is also white.

http://www.senate.ga.gov/senators/en-US/member.aspx?Member=45&Session=21


Democrats should hold the 15 black seats, as well as SD-33 (Cobb), SD-42 (Dekalb), and SD-5 (Gwinnett). That gives them 18 total or 32% of seats.

[krazen1211]

Tough to see.

The  southern portion of Cobb County (district 6, held by a Dem) was chopped and thrown in with the expansion of the Atlanta black districts. District 6 now routes into Sandy Springs.

I don't see how the Democrats hold that one.

Doug Stoner is also white.

http://www.senate.ga.gov/senators/en-US/member.aspx?Member=45&Session=21


Democrats should hold the 15 black seats, as well as SD-33 (Cobb), SD-42 (Dekalb), and SD-5 (Gwinnett). That gives them 18 total or 32% of seats.

OK, so D6 was solid Dem and now is a swingy seat, slight lean R - I mapped it in DRA and it went about 50-51% McCain.  D40 was also about 51% McCain; dunno how safe it was previously.  I guess this means Republicans gain 1.5 seats... just on the cusp of a veto-proof majority. 

PS.  You missed the "outside the Atlanta metro" part of my post. 

Ah, yes, I see that. I was just posting a general musing about the map rather than any specific response to your post.

I do not know  why the Democrats did not sent the black areas of Dekalb County north into the white liberal areas of Dekalb County rather than south into Newton, Rockdale, and Henry Counties. Those areas could have been cracked. It seems like District 42 could have been vaporized.

[krazen1211]

http://blogs.ajc.com/political-insider-jim-galloway/2011/08/22/john-barrow-moved-out-of-savannah-tom-price-gets-only-a-piece-of-buckhead-in-new-maps/


10-4, albiet not a very well done 10-4. BK did a very good job at matching the 1st draft.


Very very rough approximations.


CD-1: 55.5% McCain/54.2% Republican
CD-2: 41.3/40.7
CD-3: 64.6/63.8
CD-4: 24.1/28.7
CD-5: 12.9/16.8
CD-6: 59.9/62.7
CD-7: 60.2/63.5
CD-8: 61.5/57.9
CD-9: 72.8/68.8 (new)
CD-10: 59.2/58.6
CD-11: 64.2/65.2
CD-12: 55.6/54.4
CD-13: 37.0/39.4
CD-14: 69.8/65.7


CD-13 is just a really lousy district. They seemed to put a bunch of white precincts in there guessing that blacks will move in.

[krazen1211]

He could try. Kingston held a district like that in the 1990s. In 1996 he won it by 36 points.

[krazen1211]

A few observations.

• The way the 11th District cuts into looks really awkward, and seems pointless because it only marginally shores up Price's district.
• See how Forsyth gets cut between two districts? The only reason that happened was to prevent one of that county's ambitious Republicans from winning the administration's super special Hall County district.
• Notice how the Hall County district with no incumbent gets to keep the same number, while the incumbent Tom Graves gets the new 14th district? I know who the mapmakers supported in the Graves vs. Hawkins primaries last year!
• Interesting to see Westmoreland getting Fort Benning, though it makes sense.

CD-13 is just a really lousy district. They seemed to put a bunch of white precincts in there guessing that blacks will move in.

They probably wanted to keep the black percentage of the district too high to prevent any possible "packing" VRA lawsuits. And anyway, those probably are the precincts black will move into.

Could Barrow possibly challenge Kingston in the new 1st? Kingston took a considerable PVI downgrade; 55.5% McCain down from 62%.

Possibly. It's basically the same PVI as the new 12th, though, and in that district he won't have to race against an incumbent in unfamiliar territory.

Hmph. Why not put all of Forscythe into CD-7 then? It can use those areas and drop the Pickneyville area into a black district, and the combined black districts can then ditch the white areas in CD-13.

CD-13 is only 54% or so black and much less than CD-5 and CD-4. It certainly has room to be packed in.

You called it of course, but that Hall County district is quite irritating and uses strength that can be had in CD-12. Still the map likely gets the job done.

[krazen1211]

Dunwoody is pretty pricey, is it not?

The median income for a household in the CDP was $82,838, and the median income for a family was $100,796.




In any case, Deal has signed the legislative maps to increase the GOP majorities. Congressional map was tweaked to make minor changes.

[krazen1211]

http://buckhead.patch.com/articles/lindsey-praises-u-s-approval-of-georgia-redistricting-maps

Precleared.

I believe that wraps up the South?

SC, NC, MS, AL, LA area all finished.

[krazen1211]

http://buckhead.patch.com/articles/lindsey-praises-u-s-approval-of-georgia-redistricting-maps

Precleared.

I believe that wraps up the South?

SC, NC, MS, AL, LA area all finished.

I would have thought the DOJ would object to GA-12.  Rather surprising they didn't.  Maybe they feel that GA-02 now provides sufficient opportunity in south GA?

Georgia also had a secondary lawsuit in place to overturn S5.

[krazen1211]

Georgia also had a secondary lawsuit in place to overturn S5.

Is that the real reason DOJ has been so accommodating to the southern state review? By accepting the plans it negates any section 5 challenge. Many observers think that the court could be ripe to overturn section 5 and this way DOJ maintains its authority without challenge.

After making a massive stink over the Georgia voter verification laws for over a year, they ended up preclearing the plan in August 2010 in about 24 hours. Georgia then dismissed the lawsuit in that case. Slightly complicating the issue was that Georgia AG Thurbert Baker (who is black, btw) refused to do his job and fight the DOJ, so he was bypassed by Sonny Perdue.

http://www.lawyerscommittee.org/projects/voting_rights/page?id=0062

So yeah, they have rolled the DOJ before. Basically the 3 main points of conflict this cycle are South Carolina voter ID, Texas voter ID (which will certainly be withdrawn soon and head to the DC circuit), and Texas redistricting of course.


Attorney General Olens is 'bundling' in generic S5 complaint in all his filings now and dismissing the suits after he gets what he wants.