IL-12: Plummer with a large lead

[krazen1211]

http://capitolfax.com/2012/07/16/poll-has-plummer-up-by-11-points-and-he-still-wont-release-tax-returns/


A new poll taken last week has downstate Republican congressional candidate Jason Plummer leading his latest Democratic challenger by 11 points in a district that was designed to re-elect U.S. Rep. Jerry Costello.

The poll, taken July 9 by We Ask America, found Plummer ahead of Democrat Bill Enyart 45 percent to 34 percent. The automated poll of 1,510 likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percent.





The GOP continues on the path to break the vicious gerrymander of the Illinois Congressional districts.

[krazen1211]

What put you in such a foul mood?

[krazen1211]

krazen, I trust you're wishing Democratic candidates luck in states like Texas, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.

Well, I do wish them luck. It takes a combination of luck, skill, and of course the outrage of the voter base to break a vicious gerrymander.

But it seems like the Democrats do not want to bother with the skill portion of this trifecta as they have not bothered to recruit quality candidates.

And yes, Miles, I am in a perfectly good mood. Thanks for asking!

[krazen1211]

krazen, I trust you're wishing Democratic candidates luck in states like Texas, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.

Well, I do wish them luck. It takes a combination of luck, skill, and of course the outrage of the voter base to break a vicious gerrymander.

All right then.

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That's a matter of interpretation, as I personally don't see what's so 'quality' about some of these Republican candidates. Apparently the voters in their districts do, which is obviously more important and relevant, but I personally don't.

Well, in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and even for that matter Illinois, the quality comes from being incumbents with a fundraising advantage. The GOP has been lucky in Illinois to have incumbents in the most competitive lean D districts, while, for example, North Carolina Democrats Miller and Shuler, New Jersey Democrat Rothman, and Texas Democrat Doggett decided to simply yield.

[krazen1211]

Republicans have about as much chance of defying the gerrymander as Democrats have of doing so in states where Republican drew the map, which is not very much at all.

We Ask America leans very Republican and it's suspect that a Democrat would only get 34% in a 55% Obama district. I wouldn't start counting chickens yet.

Well, given that you yourself predicted that 2 targeted Democrats out of 4 would survive the upcoming election, that is a very good chance indeed. 50/50, in fact.

Price (nothing they can really do to NC-4)
McIntyre (Fayetteville has to go somewhere)
Shuler (They could divide Ashville, but might not want to weaken McHenry)