2004 Democratic Primary

[Paul]

I really can't see Gore running as an independent this time around.  If he wanted to run for President, he could've gotten into the Democratic primaries earlier this year.  All indications are that he would have run away with the race.
I think Gore might be saving up for an '08 run, maybe even against Hillary...but that's another story.

[Paul]

I'm not so sure that GOP votes at the state level equals a majority for Bush in 2004.  I doubt that many of those Republicans were as socially conservative as Bush.  
That being said, I think the idea of Bush picking up Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Oregon, and Minnesota is a good hypothesis.  Not only were totals close in those places in 2000, but self-identification as a Republican is up in some.

[Paul]

Ah, sorry for the faux pas.  I saw Al Gore mentioned and simply couldn't restrain myself.
As far as Sharpton goes, I really don't see him running as an independent, although I would love it, both for partisan political reasons, but mainly for sheer entertainment value.