Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

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It's been called for Cramer. Republicans hold the Senate.

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Unbelievably, Kendra Horn looks poised to win

Whas this on any radar?

Yes, it was rated as Likely R by some.

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Anyone talking about the Sun Belt being a viable strategy is delusional. Dems lost TX, FL & will likely lose AZ as well & the Georgia Gov. race. The Sun Belt will be in play only in 2028 (where maybe Dems can win all of the key states).

Tom Wolf & Casey crushed GOP by 15-20% points. Dems swept PA & won huge gains in the House (Even with re-redistricting, they won a huge share of the votes), Brown won, Stabenow will in double digits, MI Gov. race will go Blue, Baldwin win near to double digits. The WI Gov. race is close.

Trump can easily lose 2020 if Dems find a competent candidate who can lock up WI, MI & PA. Not to mention, Trump or the GOP has little chance to pick CO or NH in 2020. And NV looks hard as well !

The Mid-west swung away from Trump & Obama-Trump districts went Blue in 2018. Also, MN was a Blowout- 30-40% points victories in Senate & Gov. races ( A state Trump won by 2 % !!!!!)

Cool so everything can get blocked in the Senate with a GOP senate.

And Thomas can decide if he wants to retire next year.

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It hasnt been talked about at all, but not looking great for Claire right now.

Down big with 60% in and all of KC in.

Yeah, this one needs to be called as well. Put her out to pasture. RIP Claire, I'll always look fondly on your 2012 race

We still have to see if she gets Claired out of office.

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California re-elects fan of the confederate flag.

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The new chairs of the House committees must under no circumstances be go-along-to-get-along elderly minority hacks.

And Chuck Schumer should be fired by what's left of the D senate conference.

And pigs should learn to fly.

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Fox projects Scott wins in FL.

It's officially not a wave, and just a weird election.

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Fox projects Scott wins in FL.

It's officially not a wave, and just a weird election.

It is ludicrous to call an election in which Dems win the popular vote by 7-10% or whatever it turns out to be anything but a wave.

A wave where a 3 term Democratic incumbent senator loses in a state that voted twice for Obama and that Hillary only narrowly lost?

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Fox projects Scott wins in FL.

It's officially not a wave, and just a weird election.

It is ludicrous to call an election in which Dems win the popular vote by 7-10% or whatever it turns out to be anything but a wave.

A wave where a 3 term Democratic incumbent senator loses in a state that voted twice for Obama and that Hillary only narrowly lost?

Hilary narrowly lost and so did Nelson.

And neither of these elections is a wave.

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CA-25 and CA-48 are both 50.0-50.0 now.

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Fox projects Scott wins in FL.

It's officially not a wave, and just a weird election.

It is ludicrous to call an election in which Dems win the popular vote by 7-10% or whatever it turns out to be anything but a wave.

A wave where a 3 term Democratic incumbent senator loses in a state that voted twice for Obama and that Hillary only narrowly lost?

Your question implicitly concedes that "states" are what matter rather than representing the will of the people as expressed through their votes. I do not concede that. If the electoral system does not represent the people's will as they express them through their votes, then the problem lies with the electoral system, not with the people's votes.

But in any case, yes, you always have a certain number of tough losses in a wave. For example, Rs losing NV and CO senate races in 2010, and generally performing badly on the West coast despite doing very well elsewhere in the East and Midwest. This is not really characteristically different from that at all. So if 2010 was a wave, than this is as well. And it is not really reasonable to say 2010 was not a wave, I don't think.

NV and CO were both Democratic held seats. Wave elections don't usally have one party losing 4+ Senate seats and gaining at most 2 Senate seats.

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Just going to point this out... Kara Eastman is only down by 4 in NE-02 with 88% reporting.

Maybe, just maybe, if national Democratic groups like DCCC, House Majority PAC, etc which spent hardly anything there had spent a few million more there instead, perhaps it could have been enough.

But we will never know, because they never really gave her a chance.

Establishment Democrats would rather the progressives lose so that they can keep using electability as the reason to go with their useless moderate heroes.

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Randy Bryce was sure a real dud.

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538 Gives Heller an over 95% chance of winning

Are they going solely based on the votes counted?

Pretty sure. Nate Cohn’s site only has him at 56%

I'd trust Cohn more, but he does seem a bit over cautious as Scott is only at 57%.

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538 Gives Heller an over 95% chance of winning

Are they going solely based on the votes counted?

Pretty sure. Nate Cohn’s site only has him at 56%

I'd trust Cohn more, but he does seem a bit over cautious as Scott is only at 57%.

I'm assuming that's why Nelson hasn't conceded yet, that there's some legit hope still out there?

Unless everyone who called it forgot about how dumb they looked 18 years ago, it's over.

And BTW, on election night 2000, I was wondering why they called it for Bush.

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538 Gives Heller an over 95% chance of winning

Are they going solely based on the votes counted?

Pretty sure. Nate Cohn’s site only has him at 56%

I'd trust Cohn more, but he does seem a bit over cautious as Scott is only at 57%.

538 now has Rosen at 54% while the NY Times went to >95%.

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CA-21 called for Valadao. It's now the most Democratic district in the country held by a Republican at D+5.

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Imagine of Hilldog was president now. The senate would be a disaster. Tester, Brown, Manchin and maybe Stebenow would be gone. Possible Kaine's old seat as well.

However, I think there is a chance the Republicans keep the senate in 2020, even if a Democrat ousts Trump.

And because of the gerrymandering, it's possible that Republicans could pick up the House at the same time. The Republicans would then get 17 days of the trifecta before the Democratic President took office.  Something vaugely like this happened before. In 2000, the Democrats picked up the Senate for 17 days.

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AZ SoS said that there are "hundreds of thousands of votes" untabulated.

We're not going to know anything about AZ until later this week.

Yeah, anyone waiting for this one tonight/today...probably not gonna happen.

What about MT-Sen? Do we expect a call for that soon?

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Florida isn't called yet, but I guess Nelson is done?

Yes, so far as I now. Nelson trails Scott by ~39,000 votes, with 100% of precincts reporting (per Huffington Post). Unless if a miracle occurs with absentee ballots or the like (as with the automatic recount), Scott has won.

I think the 2000 Presidential was down to at most a few thousand at this point. Of course that was after Gore retracted his concession.

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Looks like most of the vote came in for Arizona with 99% reporting based on the new york times and McSally is ahead by .8%.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-elections.html

CNN has the same exact vote numbers, 847,021-832,441 McSally, as NYT. But, CNN says only 75% of the vote in. I'm not sure who's right and who's wrong, but someone is...

CNN is probably counting absentees against the percent reporting.

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Why is ME-02 so slow? Only 46% in on CNN.

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I think that  SALT cap  didn't work out so well for NJ Republicans. 3 lost, 1 won, and 1 is trailing.