GA-SEN 2020 Class III Megathread: She Who Loeffs Last (user search)
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  GA-SEN 2020 Class III Megathread: She Who Loeffs Last (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Who will Brian Kemp appoint as Johnny Isakson’s successor?
#1
Nathan Deal
 
#2
Casey Cagle
 
#3
Geoff Duncan
 
#4
Brad Raffensperger
 
#5
Chris Carr
 
#6
Karen Handel
 
#7
Rob Woodall
 
#8
Doug Collins
 
#9
Austin Scott
 
#10
Drew Ferguson
 
#11
Nick Ayers
 
#12
Buddy Carter
 
#13
Barry Loudermilk
 
#14
Tom Price
 
#15
Newt Gingrich
 
#16
Jody Hice
 
#17
Saxby Chambliss
 
#18
Hunter Hill
 
#19
Rick Allen
 
#20
Brian Kemp
 
#21
Tom Graves
 
#22
Other
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 117

Author Topic: GA-SEN 2020 Class III Megathread: She Who Loeffs Last  (Read 82684 times)
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,883


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« on: August 29, 2019, 09:54:47 PM »
« edited: August 29, 2019, 10:02:28 PM by ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ »

Here are the gaps in votes in double-barrel Senate seats since 1980:

- Minnesota 2018: 150,000 voted both Klobuchar (D) and Housley (R), gap of 13.5 points

- South Carolina 2014 : 20,000 voted Scott (R) and Hutto (D), gap of 9.5 points

- Oklahoma 2014: 2,000 voted Inhofe (R) and Connie Johnson (D), gap of 0.6 points

- New-York 2010: 100,000 voted Schumer (D) and DioGuardi (R), gap of 6.2 points

- Mississippi 2008: 83,000 voted Cochrane (R) and Musgrove (D), gap of 12.8 points

- Wyoming 2008: 6,000 voted Enzi (R) and Nick Carter (D), gap of 4.4 points

- Kansas 1996: 77,000 voted Roberts (R) and Docking (D), gap of 17 points

- Tennessee 1994: 52,000 voted Thompson (R) and Sasser (D), gap of 5.5 points

- California 1992: 555,000 voted split between Feinstein (D) and Herschensohn (R), gap of 11.4 points


So the gap for governor in Georgia (50k or 1.4 points) was overcome in every double-barrel Senate save one since 1980.
There's a chance.

I think the more interesting statistic is that we have never quite had a double-barrel in a state as close to the national median as GA 2020. Maybe CA in 92 or Minnesota in 28, but both ended up falling by the side of history. When there is a serious divination in the totals, it's often because of candidate quality and one party investing heavily in one race. Like:

CA 92: CA was a close state back then, but as we all know, the 90s were the turning point in Californian political history.
TN 94: Gore put this state on the map for Clinton, but a normally reddish state won't elect a Dem senator in the 94 wave.
KS 96: One of the most reliably GOP states in the nation, and your presidential candidate is from there. No.
WY 08: Red state.
MS 08: Red state, but running a Dem gov is a candidate improvement.
NY 10: Blue state.
OK 14: Red state.
SC 14: Red state .
MN 18: theoretically could have been closer, but the blue wave pushed the state off the playing field. Also, klobuchar is an electoral machine.

IF 2020 is a close election like expected, GA will be sitting there on the margins...

ND was of course solid Republican in the 1992 Presidential election, but that didn't stop Democrats from winning both seats. The special election was in December, so technically isn't a double barrel.  It's a good one for certain trivia questions about Senate elections because Conrad was sworn in the at the same time that Dorgan replaced him in the Senate.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,883


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2020, 08:15:24 PM »

There hasn't been a split party result from two Senate races held at the same time in the same state since 1966. I found these in the decade before that.

HI upon statehood in 1959
ID 1962
NH 1962
SC 1966
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,883


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2020, 04:25:05 AM »
« Edited: October 18, 2020, 04:28:23 AM by ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ »

There hasn't been a split party result from two Senate races held at the same time in the same state since 1966. I found these in the decade before that.

HI upon statehood in 1959
ID 1962
NH 1962
SC 1966

Were either of those runoff elections? Theoretically, if Ossoff gets 50%+ but Warnock doesn't, Loeffler might be at an advantage in January.

No, and I didn't see any other split party results from elections held in the same year for 1952-present.
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