New Tradesports rankings

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Obama, Clark down
Giuliani, Romney, T. Thompson down. Hagel up.

Democrats
Clinton 50.7
Obama 28.0
Gore 9.7
Edwards 7.7
Richardson 2.1
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.1
Bayh 0.1

Republicans
McCain 29.5
Giuliani 28.8
Romney 17.6
Thompson 14.2
Hagel 3.3
Gingrich 2.5
Huckabee 2.3
Bloomberg 1.2
Rice 1.1
Brownback 0.5
Paul 0.5
T. Thompson
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.4
Tancredo 0.2
Powell 0.1
Hunter 0.1

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Current asking price for the IA and NH winners (yes, they add up to more than 100, as the ask and bid prices haven't converged yet):

They should add up to more than 100.  Otherwise you could buy some of each an be guaranteed to make money. 

Though they ordinarily would add to something around 105.  With a new contract, someone may be offering high ask prices on everyone, hoping that people simply want to get on the action.

If they add up to over 100, you could just short each, and make money.

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Richardson up a bit.
Giuliani down, McCain is now a bit ahead of him.
Large Gingrich surge, Hagel drops.

Democrats
Clinton 51.0
Obama 27.8
Gore 9.7
Edwards 7.6
Richardson 2.4
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.1
Feingold 0.1

Republicans
McCain 29.5
Giuliani 27.0
Romney 17.7
Thompson 14.5
Gingrich 3.9
Hagel 2.6
Huckabee 2.3
Bloomberg 1.4
Rice 1.1
Brownback 0.5
Paul 0.5
T. Thompson 0.4
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.4
Tancredo 0.2
Powell 0.1
Hunter 0.1

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Hillary gains a bit.
McCain drops and Giuliani rises, to end up tied.
Flavor of a month or two ago Thompson goes down a bit.

Democrats
Clinton 52.1
Obama 27.7
Gore 9.9
Edwards 7.7
Richardson 2.2
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.1

Republicans
McCain 28.0
Giuliani 28.0
Romney 18.2
Thompson 13.9
Gingrich 3.8
Hagel 2.7
Huckabee 2.3
Bloomberg 1.3
Rice 1.1
Paul 0.5
Brownback 0.4
Cheney 0.4
T. Thompson 0.3
J. Bush 0.3
Tancredo 0.2
Powell 0.1
Hunter 0.1

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Democrats running
Clinton 52.1
Obama 27.7
Edwards 7.7
Richardson 2.2
Biden 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Kucinch 0
Gravel 0

Democrats not running
Gore 9.9
Clark 0.5
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.1

Republicans running
McCain 28.0
Giuliani 28.0
Romney 18.2
Huckabee 2.3
Paul 0.5
Brownback 0.4
T. Thompson 0.3
Tancredo 0.2
Hunter 0.1
Gilmore 0

Republicans not running
Thompson 13.9
Gingrich 3.8
Hagel 2.7
Bloomberg 1.3
Rice 1.1
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
Powell 0.1

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Clinton, Obama, and Gore go up a bit. Edwards goes down.
Richardson has a significant drop.

Giuliani gains and takes the lead.

Democrats
Clinton 52.8
Obama 28.2
Gore 10.6
Edwards 7.0
Richardson 1.5
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 30.0
McCain 27.6
Romney 17.9
Thompson 14.4
Gingrich 3.8
Hagel 2.7
Huckabee 2.3
Bloomberg 1.3
Rice 1.1
Paul 0.4
Brownback 0.4
Cheney 0.4
T. Thompson 0.3
J. Bush 0.3
Tancredo 0.2
Powell 0.1
Hunter 0.1

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Winning individual

Percentage
Clinton 42.0
Obama 17.3
Giuliani 14.8
McCain 14.0
Thompson 9.7
Gore 8.4
Romney 8.3
Edwards 3.6
Allen 0.3

Odds
Allen infinity%
Clinton 80%
Gore 79%
Thompson 67%
Obama 61%
Edwards 51%
McCain 50%
Giuliani 49%
Romney 46.4%

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Edwards and Richardson gain at Gore and Clinton's expenses.
McCain tanks again. Giuliani falls a bit. Romney and Thompson gain, but are still 3rd and 4th place.

Democrats
Clinton 51.2
Obama 28.4
Gore 9.8
Edwards 7.3
Richardson 2.5
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 28.1
McCain 23.4
Romney 20.0
Thompson 16.6
Gingrich 3.7
Hagel 2.6
Huckabee 2.6
Bloomberg 1.1
Rice 1.1
Paul 0.5
Brownback 0.5
Cheney 0.5
J. Bush 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
Powell 0.1
Hunter 0.1

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Richardson down a bit.

McCain continues tanking and Thompson has a significant gain. Those 2 and Romney are now basically in a 3 way tie for 2nd place.
McCain is close to his low since 2005. Thompson and Romney are close to record highs.
Bloomberg tanks.

Democrats
Clinton 51.5
Obama 28.4
Gore 9.8
Edwards 7.4
Richardson 2.1
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Warner 0.1
Kerry 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 28.5
McCain 20.1
Romney 20.0
Thompson 19.9
Gingrich 3.3
Hagel 2.3
Huckabee 2.3
Rice 1.0
Paul 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5
Brownback 0.5
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.4
T. Thompson 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
Powell 0.1
Hunter 0.1

McCain:

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Obama down, Richardson up.

Thompson and Romney gain, causing the 2-4th order candidates to all switch orders. McCain's 2000 campaign co-chair (Thompson) is now 2 places ahead of McCain. That one has got to hurt.


Democrats
Clinton 51.5
Obama 27.8
Gore 9.7
Edwards 7.5
Richardson 2.5
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.1
Kerry 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 28.1
Thompson 21.0
Romney 20.5
McCain 20.2
Gingrich 3.3
Hagel 2.3
Huckabee 2.3
Rice 1.0
Paul 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5
Brownback 0.5
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
Powell 0.1
Hunter 0.1

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Republican only update:

McCain continues tanking to 17.8, which is probably the lowest he's ever been except for a couple of days in 2005. Hagel also tanks.
Romney surges. He hit a record high of 32.0 earlier. Now at 26.5, he's still not far behind Giuliani.


Republicans
Giuliani 28.1
Romney 26.5
Thompson 21.6
McCain 17.8
Gingrich 2.9
Huckabee 2.4
Hagel 1.6
Rice 1.0
Paul 0.8
Bloomberg 0.5
Brownback 0.5
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.1

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Clinton falls, Richardson gains.

Romney falls back down. McCain recovers a bit, he had a low of 15.5, just above his all time low of 15.0. Some of the 2nd tier candidates fall a bit.

Democrats
Clinton 49.6
Obama 29.4
Gore 9.9
Edwards 7.4
Richardson 3.4
Clark 0.5
Biden 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.1
Warner 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 27.4
Romney 22.2
Thompson 20.1
McCain 18.0
Gingrich 2.7
Huckabee 2.3
Hagel 1.5
Rice 1.0
Paul 0.8
Bloomberg 0.5
Brownback 0.5
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.4
T. Thompson 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.1

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The bottom 3 Democrats gain.

McCain, Romney, Thompson, Bloomberg gain, with no real corresponding drops.

Democrats
Clinton 50.5
Obama 29.4
Gore 9.6
Edwards 7.9
Richardson 3.4
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.4
Kerry 0.2
Warner 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 27.1
Romney 23.0
Thompson 21.0
McCain 18.9
Gingrich 2.6
Huckabee 2.3
Hagel 1.4
Bloomberg 1.1
Rice 1.0
Paul 0.7
Brownback 0.7
Cheney 0.5
Tancredo 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.1

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Yesterday's vote didn't seem to have had much affect on the Democratic numbers. Obama, Edwards, Richardson, and Dodd go down a bit.

Thompson gains at McCain's expense. McCain is now a solid 4th.

Democrats
Clinton 50.6
Obama 28.6
Gore 9.7
Edwards 7.3
Richardson 2.9
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.1
Warner 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 26.9
Romney 23.3
Thompson 22.0
McCain 18.0
Gingrich 2.9
Huckabee 2.2
Hagel 1.4
Bloomberg 1.1
Rice 1.0
Paul 0.7
Brownback 0.7
Cheney 0.5
Tancredo 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.1

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Obama gains
Thompson is just behind Romney now.


Democrats
Clinton 51.0
Obama 30.6
Gore 10.0
Edwards 7.4
Richardson 2.9
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.1
Warner 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 27.4
Romney 23.0
Thompson 22.7
McCain 18.0
Gingrich 2.9
Huckabee 2.2
Hagel 1.4
Rice 1.0
Paul 1.0
Bloomberg 0.8
Paul 0.7
Brownback 0.7
Cheney 0.4
Tancredo 0.4
J. Bush 0.4
T. Thompson 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.1

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Edwards, McCain, Paul gain.
Hagel loses.

Democrats
Clinton 51.1
Obama 29.9
Gore 9.9
Edwards 7.9
Richardson 3.0
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2
Warner 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 27.0
Romney 23.0
Thompson 22.3
McCain 19.9
Gingrich 3.0
Huckabee 2.2
Paul 1.3
Rice 1.1
Hagel 1.0
Bloomberg 0.7
Cheney 0.6
Brownback 0.4
J. Bush 0.4
Tancredo 0.3
T. Thompson 0.3
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.1

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Thompson gets a boost because after a couple of months of thought, he announced that he'll create a commitee to decide whether or not to run. Real decisive guy.

Up: Gore, Thompson
Down:  Obama, Edwards, Giuliani, McCain, Hagel


Edwards, McCain, Paul gain.
Hagel loses.

Democrats
Clinton 51.0
Obama 28.8
Gore 10.5
Edwards 6.9
Richardson 3.0
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 25.9
Thompson 24.8
Romney 23.0
McCain 17.5
Gingrich 2.8
Huckabee 2.3
Paul 1.6
Rice 1.1
Cheney 0.4
Bloomberg 0.4
Brownback 0.4
J. Bush 0.4
Hagel 0.3
T. Thompson 0.3
Tancredo 0.2
Hunter 0.1
Powell 0.1

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Pre-debate update.
Since the last update:

On the Democratic side, Obama and Richardson go down, no corresponding gains.

On the Republican side, Giuliani goes down, and is now tied for 1st place with Thompson. Thompson had not been in 1st place before.  Huckabee loses, Paul gains.

Democrats
Clinton 51.1
Obama 27.5
Gore 10.4
Edwards 6.5
Richardson 2.3
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 25.0
Thompson 25.0
Romney 23.0
McCain 17.9
Gingrich 2.5
Paul 2.3
Huckabee 2.0
Rice 0.8
Brownback 0.5
Cheney 0.4
Bloomberg 0.4
J. Bush 0.4
Hagel 0.4
T. Thompson 0.3
Tancredo 0.2
Hunter 0.1
Powell 0.1

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Post Democratic debate:
Obama falls a fair amount.  Edwards gains.


Pre Republican debate:
Giuliani falls, causing Thompson to be an untied 1st place. This is amazing, tommorrow's debate will have 10 candidates, and the top guy won't even be there. Other Republicans drop, except for Paul, who surges. My advice: short-sell Paul.

Democrats
Clinton 51.0
Obama 25.1
Gore 10.7
Edwards 7.2
Richardson 2.3
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.1

Republicans
Thompson 24.9
Giuliani 24.4
Romney 22.0
McCain 17.0
Paul 2.9
Gingrich 2.1
Huckabee 2.0
Rice 0.9
Brownback 0.5
Cheney 0.4
Bloomberg 0.4
J. Bush 0.4
Hagel 0.4
T. Thompson 0.3
Tancredo 0.2
Hunter 0.1
Powell 0.1

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Obama rebounds.

The guy who was too chicken to be in the Republican debate gains the most. McCain might as well get in a tank, because there's a lot of tank in his campaign. Paul isn't quite as overrated any more.

Democrats
Clinton 50.8
Obama 27.6
Gore 10.2
Edwards 7.0
Richardson 2.3
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.1

Republicans
Thompson 26.0
Giuliani 24.4
Romney 22.1
McCain 15.6
Paul 2.4
Gingrich 2.4
Huckabee 2.0
Rice 0.9
Hagel 0.8
Brownback 0.5
Cheney 0.5
J. Bush 0.5
Bloomberg 0.4
T. Thompson 0.3
Tancredo 0.2
Powell 0.2
Hunter 0.1

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Obama surges to the highest he's been in a while. Edwards drops.

On the Republican side, the candidates in 5th-7th place all drop, leaving only the 4 top tier candidates at or above 2.0.

Democrats
Clinton 50.6
Obama 30.8
Gore 10.4
Edwards 6.0
Richardson 2.2
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.1

Republicans
Thompson 26.3
Giuliani 23.8
Romney 22.0
McCain 15.6
Paul 1.9
Huckabee 1.7
Gingrich 1.6
Rice 0.9
Hagel 0.8
Brownback 0.5
Cheney 0.5
J. Bush 0.5
Bloomberg 0.4
T. Thompson 0.3
Tancredo 0.2
Powell 0.2
Hunter 0.1

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Obama, Richardson up, Gore down

Giuliani gains, Thompson goes down, causing Rudy to take the #1 spot. Romney and Paul also gain. A lot of the minor candidates go down, particularly Hagel and Huckabee, who once had much higher odds.

Democrats
Clinton 49.5
Obama 30.6
Gore 9.3
Edwards 5.3
Richardson 2.6
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 32.5
Thompson 30.4
Romney 23.2
McCain 8.9
Paul 2.6
Gingrich 2.0
Huckabee 0.8
Rice 0.8
Bloomberg 0.5
Brownback 0.5
J. Bush 0.4
Hagel 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Tancredo 0.2
T. Thompson 0.2
Hunter 0.1
Powell 0.1

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Last Q2 update:

Obama goes up a bit to hit a new record high.

Romney sinks a bit. McCain utterally tanks. Several months ago he was around 50%. Those days are over. Paul has over half of McCain. The betters figured out that maybe a single black woman isn't going to be the Republican  nominee.

Democrats
Clinton 47.1
Obama 34.3
Gore 8.9
Edwards 5.3
Richardson 2.6
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 34.6
Thompson 34.0
Romney 20.1
McCain 5.2
Paul 3.1
Gingrich 2.1
Huckabee 0.8
Hagel 0.6
J. Bush 0.6
Rice 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Brownback 0.3
Bloomberg 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
T. Thompson 0.2
Powell 0.1
Hunter 0.1

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Now that most of the Q2 numbers have been released:

Clinton down.

Giuliani and Thompson both up.  Romney and McCain down. McCain is only barely above Paul now.  Minor Republicans tend to fall.

For possibly the first time ever, there are as many Democrats as Republicans over 0.5.


Democrats
Clinton 45.7
Obama 34.6
Gore 9.2
Edwards 5.4
Richardson 2.3
Clark 0.7
Biden 0.6
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 36.0
Thompson 35.5
Romney 18.6
McCain 4.6
Paul 3.3
Gingrich 2.4
Huckabee 0.8
J. Bush 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5
Hagel 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Brownback 0.3
Rice 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
T. Thompson 0.2
Powell 0.1
Hunter 0.1

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Now for a different site:
Iowa Electronic Markets

Democrats:
Clinton 47.3
Obama 31.5
Edwards 7.6
Other 12.5


Republicans:
Thompson 36.4
Giuliani 28.6
Romney 21.0
McCain 8.1
Other 5.0