I don't think I ever mentioned it, but on July 22, 1984, for a course, I wrote a paper on if there was a realignment going on in America. I took the position, yes, we were.
After the assignment was completed, the professor finally answered the question we all wanted to know, did he think there was a realignment. He said no. I got an A on the paper anyhow.
I had another class with the professor that fall, and after the election, I asked if he thought we had a realignment. He said yes.
It is extremely difficult to predict one, even while it is happening, though generally they occur at 30-50 year periods.
Some of the indicators are present, for 2010 being the precursor election, but they have present at other times, and no realignment occurred. Just a loss for Obama would not alone signal a realignment.
Well, it certainly was for Marin County, California. Ford, Reagan, Mondale, enough said.
