Inverclyde by-election

[joevsimp]

Labour's selected Iain McKenzie, a former employee of IBM. He's been a local councillor since 2003 and the leader of Inverclyde council since February this year.

should be a fairly safe win then, I really can't see see the SNP gaining this after failing to gain the hollyrood seat that this effectively replaced at westminster, but you can't underestimate Labour's incompetence all the time

[joevsimp]

Not that this sort of thing ever tells us much, but if you apply the percentage changes from this by-election to all Scottish results in 2010 the follow seats change hands:

Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine - SNP gain from LDem (who fall to third behind the Tories).
Argyll & Bute - SNP gain from LDem (who fall to fourth behind the Tories and Labour).
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross - SNP gain from LDem
Dunbartonshire East - Labour gain from LDem
Edinburgh West - SNP gain from LDem (who fall to third behind Labour and the Tories. This would be an SNP win from fourth place, fwiw).
Falkirk - SNP gain from Labour
Gordon - SNP gain from LDem
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey - SNP gain from LDem (and who wouldn't be at least vaguely pleased at that?)
Ochil & South Perthshire - SNP gain from Labour

nothing grossly infeasible about any of those, as long as the Scottish Government doesn't do anything outlandishly stupid