Interactive Election Game: 2016 (TURN 5)

[NHI]

October 31st - Election Day

The final slog before voters head to the polls and elect the 45th President of the United States. Senator Rubio is holding onto his lead and has seen movement in the polls, particularly in the Midwest and RustBelt. Senator Warren for her part is trying to hold together the Obama Coalition, while dealing with Senator Bernie Sanders. Sanders, who’s numbers have dropped is still Polling well in places Warren will need to hold on Election Day. Congressman Paul meanwhile, caps off the final sprint with a rush of endorsements and fundraising; raising the stakes for his campaign.


538 Presidential Election Tracking
Rubio: 47% chance of winning
Warren: 31% chance of winning
22% chance of a tie or deadlock Election.


This round will last until Tuesday at 10:00 pm.
I will be posting pundit predictions and final polling later

Final polling, you mean Election Night results? Just to be sure.

I would assume Election Night will be a turn to itself...but don't quote me.

Yes, you are correct. Election Night will be a turn to itself.

[NHI]

2016 Election Predictions

Nate Silver: Marco Rubio 49.6% Chance of Winning
Marco Rubio: 49.6% Chance of Winning
Elizabeth Warren: 31.5% Chance of Winning
No Electoral Winner: 18.9% Chance of Happening

Marco Rubio: 316 (46.9%)
Elizabeth Warren: 219 (40.1%)
Bernie Sanders: 3 (6.9%)
Ron Paul: 4.7%

The Upshot: Marco Rubio 46% Chance of Becoming President; Elizabeth Warren: 43%
Republicans have a 51% Chance of Holding the Senate
Most Likely Outcome in 2016 Election:

Rubio: 278
Warren: 257
Sanders: 3

Huffington Post: Rubio with a Slight Edge

Marco Rubio: 294
Elizabeth Warren: 241
Bernie Sanders: 3
Ron Paul: 0

Peggy Noonan: Rubio Will be the 45th President of the United States

Jim Cramer: Elizabeth Warren will Pull an Upset, Will win 287 Electoral Votes

Battleground Polls:

Ohio: Warren +2
Warren: 47%
Rubio: 45%
Sanders: 3%
Paul: 2%

Michigan: Rubio +1
Rubio: 45%
Warren: 44%
Sanders: 7%
Paul: 3%

Wisconsin: Rubio +1
Rubio: 46%
Warren: 45%
Sanders: 4%
Sanders: 3%

Minnesota: Warren +1
Warren: 46%
Rubio: 45%
Sanders: 7%
Paul: 2%

Iowa: Rubio +4
Rubio: 48%
Warren: 44%
Sanders: 4%
Paul: 2%

Virginia: Warren +3
Warren: 48%
Rubio: 45%
Sanders: 2%
Paul: 1%

Pennsylvania: Rubio +2
Rubio: 47%
Warren: 45%
Sanders: 3%
Paul: 2%

New Hampshire: Warren +1
Warren: 37%
Rubio: 36%
Paul: 12%
Sanders: 11%

Maine: Warren +3
Warren: 41%
Rubio: 38%
Paul: 8%
Sanders: 7%

North Carolina: Rubio +6
Rubio: 50%
Warren: 44%
Sanders: 1%
Paul: 1%

Missouri: Rubio +5
Rubio: 49%
Warren: 44%
Sanders: 2%
Paul: 1%

Texas: Rubio +12
Rubio: 46%
Warren: 34%
Paul: 11%
Sanders: 5%

New Mexico: Warren +2
Warren: 48%
Rubio: 46%
Paul: 3%
Sanders: 1%

Colorado: Warren +2
Warren: 45%
Rubio: 43%
Paul: 5%
Sanders: 5%

Nevada: Rubio +3
Rubio: 46%
Warren: 43%
Paul: 4%
Sanders: 3%

Montana: Rubio +11
Rubio: 50%
Warren: 39%
Paul: 4%
Sanders: 3%

Alaska: Rubio +8
Rubio: 46%
Warren: 38%
Paul: 8%
Sanders: 7%

Oregon: Warren +5
Warren: 45%
Rubio: 40%
Sanders: 7%
Paul: 3%

New Jersey: Warren +9
Warren: 50%
Rubio: 41%
Sanders: 6%
Paul: 2%

Arizona: Rubio +6
Rubio: 50%
Warren: 44%
Paul: 3%
Sanders: 1%

Hawaii: Warren +1
Warren: 31%
Rubio: 30%
Sanders: 29%
Paul: 9%

[NHI]

BREAKING NEWS: FBI REOPENS INVESTIGATION IN HILLARY CLINTON EMAILS AS SECY. OF STATE

[NHI]

Senate Races: Key Snapshots

WI: Tossup
Johnson: 47%
Feingold: 47%

PA:
Toomey: 48%
McGinty: 47%

NH:
Ayotte: 48%
Hassan: 48%

NV:
Cortez Masto: 47%
Heck: 45%

IN:
Young: 49%
Bayh: 45%

NC:
Burr: 50%
Ross: 44%

OH:
Portman: 54%
Strickland: 41%

MO:
Blunt: 48%

Kander: 46%

IL:
Duckworth: 49%
Kirk: 45%

[NHI]

National Tracking Polls:

ABC/WASH POST: Rubio +2
Rubio: 45%
Warren: 43%
Sanders: 6%
Paul: 5%

FOX NEWS POLL: Rubio +5
Rubio: 47%
Warren: 42%
Sanders: 5%
Paul: 4%

CNN/ORC POLL: Rubio +1
Rubio: 45%
Warren: 44%
Sanders: 5%
Paul: 3%

Public Policy Polling: Warren +1
Warren: 44%
Rubio: 43%
Paul: 7%
Sanders: 5%

NBC/WSJ POLL: Rubio +2
Rubio: 46%
Warren: 44%
Sanders: 5%
Paul: 4%

UPI/C VOTER POLL: Warren +2
Warren: 46%
Rubio: 44%
Sanders: 4%
Paul: 3%

YOUGOV/ECONOMIST POLL: Tied
Warren: 45%
Rubio: 45%
Sanders: 5%
Paul: 4%

IBD/TIPP: Rubio +2
Rubio: 47%
Warren: 45%
Paul: 3%
Sanders: 2%

CBS/NYT POLL: Warren +1
Warren: 46%
Rubio: 45%
Paul: 4%
Sanders: 3%

IPSOS/REUTERS POLL: Warren +3
Warren: 46%
Rubio: 43%
Sanders: 3%
Paul: 2%

Monmouth University POLL: Rubio +3
Rubio: 45%
Warren: 42%
Sanders: 6%
Paul: 5%

Political Analysis from Meet the Press

Todd: We're looking at all the latest polls and what we've seen throughout this race, consistently is a lead for Marco Rubio. It has narrowed, I think the Fox Poll might be the outlier, but he is leading in six of these eleven polls; Warren is only up in 4.

Joy: yes, all the polling across the board shows Rubio ahead and if you go by the electoral map count at this point he has an advantage there, but I will tell you Chuck and I've been talking with people on the ground in the key states and with voters across the country and there is a sense that Rubio has yet to put this away. Even, with Bernie Sanders taking away a portion of the Democratic vote, Elizabeth Warren is still relevant and still has a shot.

Todd: Why hasn't he put this race away? He has the organizational advantage. He has the financial advantage, and yet he's only leading by an average of two and half points, which suggests at least to me this is a competitive race.

Scarborough: That's the Ron Paul factor. I've been saying it all along, I think Ron Paul is the great wildcard in this race and may pull a few surprises on election night.

Todd: Well, only time will tell. We are in the final stretch before the big vote on Tuesday, where voters will elect the 45th President of the United States.

[NHI]

BREAKING NEWS: DNC 'Colluded' with Warren Campaign to Swing Democratic Primary to MA Senator

A series of leaked documents, show evidence of a joint fundraising agreement between Elizabeth Warren and the Democratic National Committee, following the New Hampshire Primary in 2016. The documents seem to reinforce the argument that the Democratic National Committee colluded with the Warren campaign, following the departure of Vice President Joe Biden, in order to ensure Bernie Sanders did not win the Democratic nomination.

[NHI]

FINAL TRACKING POLL: GENERAL Election

Marco Rubio: 46%

Elizabeth Warren: 42%

Bernie Sanders: 5%

Ron Paul: 3%

[NHI]

OOC:  I may be jumping the gun, a little bit, but if NHI agrees to it, would everyone be interested in continuing to 2020 after this game?

(I already have who I want to run as in mind, assuming Warren doesn't win....)

Yes I am all in for 2020!

[NHI]

OOC:  I may be jumping the gun, a little bit, but if NHI agrees to it, would everyone be interested in continuing to 2020 after this game?

(I already have who I want to run as in mind, assuming Warren doesn't win....)

Yes I am all in for 2020!

Agreed

Maybe sending a preview PM to all previous players (GoTfan, Wjx987 and CMB222), in addition to those playing now, and anyone else you feel would be interested is a good idea?

[NHI]

Will be held up on update. Caught up in election night gathering for city council race.
Will have it up tomorrow!


NHI

[NHI]

Election Day

Voters cast their ballots in Dixsville Notch, NH.

The longest and most expensive Presidential Election comes to a close.

Ballot for President of the United States: Dixsville Notch

Marco Rubio: 6

Elizabeth Warren: 4

Bernie Sanders: 3

Ron Paul: 2

Ballot for President of the United States: Hart's Location

Marco Rubio: 7

Elizabeth Warren: 6

Bernie Sanders: 6

Ron Paul: 3

New Hampshire: Presidential Election Results <1% Reported

Marco Rubio: 35.13%

Elizabeth Warren: 27.02%

Bernie Sanders: 24.32%

Ron Paul: 13.53%

Analysts are predicting large voter turnout, possibly surpassing the 2008 turnout.

Marco Rubio: 46% (+5)

Elizabeth Warren: 41%

Bernie Sanders: 7%

Ron Paul: 5%

[NHI]

America Votes: 2016

MARCO RUBIO:

ELIZABETH WARREN:

BERNIE SANDERS:

RON PAUL:

Williams: Good evening and welcome to MSNBC's continuing coverage of Election Night 2016. We are just coming up on the seven o'clock hour and the polls will be closing in a number of states and we will be able to get the first signs of where this night may be heading.

Maddow:In a race, Brian's that been mercurial, and up and down tonight there is a sense that may be, and I preface that with a sigh, because there could be a major upset, but looking at all the data and the polls, Republicans have to be feeling very good tonight.

Williams: We'll continue with that in a moment, Rachel, but now the polls have closed and we have some projections to make at this time:

Kentucky: 0% Reporting

✔ MARCO RUBIO:

ELIZABETH WARREN:

BERNIE SANDERS:

RON PAUL:

Williams: Based on exit polling and all the polls we've seen, we are calling Kentucky for Senator Marco Rubio.

Indiana: 1% Reporting

✔ MARCO RUBIO: 53%

ELIZABETH WARREN: 39%

BERNIE SANDERS: 5%

RON PAUL: 3%

Maddow: We are also able to call Indiana. A relatively reliable Republican state, for Mr. Rubio.

Williams: Adding to his total, we are calling the state of South Carolina for the Republican nominee.

South Carolina: 1% Reporting

✔ MARCO RUBIO: 59%

ELIZABETH WARREN: 36%

BERNIE SANDERS: 2%

RON PAUL: 1%

Maddow: And in Vermont, the home state of Senator Bernie Sanders, we can project the Independent candidate will carry this home state and become the first third party candidate to win a state since 1968.

Vermont 1% Reporting

BERNIE SANDERS: 52%

✔ MARCO RUBIO: 23%

ELIZABETH WARREN: 21%

RON PAUL: 3%

Maddow: In the state of Georgia, we are putting in the TOO EARLY TO CALL column, but Senator Rubio is being described as IN THE LEAD.

Williams: In the battleground state of Virginia, we are UNABLE TO PROJECT A WINNER. The state is being labeled as TOO CLOSE TO CALL.

Virginia: <1% Reported

Marco Rubio: 50%

Elizabeth Warren: 46%

Bernie Sanders: 2%

Ron Paul: 1%

MARCO RUBIO: 28

BERNIE SANDERS: 3

ELIZABETH WARREN:

RON PAUL: 0

7:30

Maddow: As we continue to wait for the results to come in, we can project in Indiana Congressman Todd Young will DEFEAT Former Senator Evan Bayh in the Race for the US Senate.

Indiana Senate Race: 15% Reported

Todd Young: 52.1%

Evan Bayh: 42.9%

Williams: And turning once again to the Presidential Race, we have some results to share. In West Virginia MSNBC is calling it for SENATOR RUBIO. But in the battleground states of Ohio and North Carolina WE CANNOT project a winner at this time. Both States are being labeled as TOO CLOSE TO CALL.

North Carolina: 2% Reported

Marco Rubio: 52%

Elizabeth Warren: 44%

Bernie Sanders: 2%

Ron Paul: 1%

Ohio: 2% Reported

Elizabeth Warren: 46%

Marco Rubio: 45%

Bernie Sanders: 5%

Ron Paul: 3%

MARCO RUBIO: 33

BERNIE SANDERS: 3

ELIZABETH WARREN:

RON PAUL: 0

[NHI]

Maddow: It is eight o'clock here on the east coast and the polls have closed in a number of states and we are able to project winners in the following states:

Alabama: <1% Reported

Rubio: 61%

Warren: 37%

Sanders: 1%

Paul: 1%

Mississippi: <1% Reported

Rubio: 58%

Warren: 39%

Sanders: 1%

Paul: 1%

Tennessee: <1% Reported

Rubio: 60%

Warren: 38%

Sanders: 1%

Paul: 1%

Oklahoma: <1% Reported

Rubio: 60%

Warren: 39%

Sanders: <1%

Paul: <1%

Florida: <1% Reported

Rubio: 52%

Warren: 41%

Sanders: 4%

Paul: 2%

Maryland: <1% Reported

Warren: 53%

Rubio: 41%

Sanders: 3%

Paul: 1%

Massachusetts: <1% Reported

Warren: 54%

Rubio: 40%

Sanders: 4%

Paul: 1%

Illinois: <1% Reported

Warren: 51%

Rubio: 42%

Sanders: 3%

Paul: 2%

RUBIO: 95

WARREN: 51

SANDERS: 3

PAUL: 0

Williams: There you have the map. A slight edge for Senator Rubio. He of course, winning the big prize of Florida, his home state. We are unable to project a few results in the state of Pennsylvania, a crucial battleground it is TOO CLOSE TO CALL. Missouri is another state we are labeling as TOO CLOSE TO CALL.

Maddow: We can project that Elizabeth Warren will win both the DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA and RHODE ISLAND. We are unable to project a winner in Connecticut and New Jersey. There states are being labeled as TOO EARLY TO CALL.

Pennsylvania: 1% Reported

Rubio: 48%

Warren: 45%

Sanders: 3%

Paul: 2%

Missouri: 1% Reported

Rubio: 51%

Warren: 44%

Sanders: 2%

Paul: 1%

Maddow: Two other states we cannot project a winner are: New Hampshire and Maine. Both are being labeled at this time as TOO CLOSE TO CALL.

Williams: Circling back to some states that remained uncalled at this hour. In the state of Ohio, MSNBC is labeling the state as TOO CLOSE TO CALL.

Ohio: 23% Reported

Warren: 46.7%

Rubio: 46.1%

Sanders: 3.6%

Paul: 2.7%

Kornacki: Another state we are watching at this hour is Virginia. This is a state which voted for Barack Obama twice, but two years ago narrowly went to Mark Warner in a close senate race with Ed Gillespie. Tonight Marco Rubio seems to be doing better than Mitt Romney did four years ago, plus with the added presence of Bernie Sanders on the ballot it may and that as big may, may be enough to swing the state to the Republicans tonight, and if that were to happen we would be looking at a rather large and decisive victory for Senator Rubio.

Virginia: 51% Reported

Rubio: 49.7%

Warren: 47.0%

Sanders: 1.8%

Paul: 0.8%

North Carolina: 46% Reported

Rubio: 51.0%

Warren: 44.9%

Sanders: 1.9%

Paul: 1.5%

8:11 PM

Maddow: We do have another call to make in the state of Georgia. We can now project Senator Rubio will WIN the state of Georgia.

Paul: 0.8%

North Carolina: 49% Reported

Rubio: 51.1%

Warren: 45.0%

Sanders: 1.6%

Paul: 1.4%

8:51 PM

Williams: Democrats can breathe a sigh of a relief. We project Senator Warren will win NEW JERSEY.

New Jersey: 19% Reported

Warren: 51%

Rubio: 43%

Sanders: 3%

Paul: 2%

RUBIO: 117

WARREN: 65

SANDERS: 3

PAUL: 0

8:55 PM

Williams: ... We're back now, just before the top of the nine o'clock hour and we can now make a MAJOR projection. We have just learned from our decision desk we are calling NORTH CAROLINA for Rubio. We project Marco Rubio will WIN the state of North Carolina. A big and crucial win for the Republican nominee.

Maddow: And we have to wonder if a call this early in a state like North Carolina, what does it mean for the rest of the evening...

RUBIO: 132

WARREN: 65

SANDERS: 3

PAUL: 0

9:19 PM

Williams:... and We can now project Senator Rubio will WIN the state of Texas.

RUBIO: 207

WARREN: 101

SANDERS: 3

PAUL: 0

[NHI]

States Too Close to Call

Minnesota: 15% Reported

Elizabeth Warren: 40.5%

Rubio: 39.8%

Sanders: 15.0%

Paul: 3.7%

Wisconsin: 17% Reported

Rubio: 45%

Elizabeth Warren: 43%

Sanders: 8%

Paul: 3%

Michigan: 17% Reported

Rubio: 46%

Elizabeth Warren: 42%

Sanders: 9%

Paul: 2%

Colorado: 10% Reported

Rubio: 44%

Elizabeth Warren: 40%

Sanders: 9%

Paul: 6%

New Mexico: 15% Reported

Elizabeth Warren: 47%

Rubio: 46%

Sanders: 3%

Paul: 3%

Pennsylvania: 59% Reported

Rubio: 48%

Elizabeth Warren: 44%

Sanders: 4%

Paul: 3%

New Hampshire: 61% Reported

Rubio: 35.4%

Elizabeth Warren: 34.7%

Sanders: 15.0%

Paul: 13.9%

Maine 58% Reported

Elizabeth Warren: 33.6%

Rubio: 33.3%

Sanders: 16.9%

Paul: 15.2%

Virginia: 74% Reported

Rubio: 49.4%

Elizabeth Warren: 47.7%

Sanders: 1.3%

Paul: 1.1%

Maddow: A projection and some history. We can project Senator Rubio will carry the 2nd Congressional District in Maine and will therefore WIN two delegates. Mr. Rubio becomes the first candidate to ever win a split delegate since Maine enacted this system in 1972.

Williams: We should add Barack Obama was the first candidate to carry one of Nebraska's split electoral delegates in 2008.

PROJECTION: REPUBLICANS HOLD THE HOUSE

Maddow: Not that it was ever much in doubt, but Republicans will retain control of the House of Representatives. Most estimates put them on a 248 to 187 margin.

Williams: We are still waiting on the Senate. Republicans are expected to hold the Senate.

Maddow: In Illinois, we can project Tammy Duckworth will DEFEAT Senator Mark Kirk. So that is a gain for the Democrats in the race for control of the US Senate.

Illinois Senate Election: 78% Reported

Tammy Duckworth: 49.66%

Mark Kirk: 48.55%

Williams: Hold on, Rachel because we do have a major projection to make:

Pennsylvania: RUBIO

Maddow: We cannot now project Senator Rubio will WIN the state of Pennsylvania, and turning to our panel now this is a major turning point in the race for the Presidency tonight.

Schmidt: This race is effectively over. We've been watching the polls for a long time and Senator Rubio has held a consistent lead in Pennsylvania and the thought was if a Republican could swing the state the election would be decided and tonight Marco Rubio has done something not accomplished since George Herbert Walker Bush in 1988.

Carville: Now some in my party will say Bernie Sanders played a role because there was a split in the Democratic vote and that's entirely true, but also Senator Warren did not connect with voters in that state. She never seemed to rally the blue collar, Reagan Democrat types who gave Rubio this win tonight and my thought is the Democratic Party is going to need to redefine itself and get back to basic economic, pocketbook issues, because the Republicans are going to scam the American voters, but they'll keep getting away with it unless the Democrats take a long hard look at tonight's results.

Schmidt: Rubio had an economic message, but he also positioned himself quite brilliantly as the outsider candidate. 2016 will go down as the year of the insurgent. Now Rubio is not a populist candidate in the way that Bernie Sanders is, or Rand Paul would have been, but he tapped into voter's frustrations with Washington and painted Elizabeth Warren as the problem, not the solutions.

RUBIO: 228

WARREN: 101

SANDERS: 3

PAUL: 0

Maddow: Please standby gentlmen, because we have another major projection to make. We are now calling WISCONSIN for Senator Rubio.

[NHI]

Maddow: ... shortly after we went to break we reported the AP is calling in the NH Senate Race, Senator Kelly Ayotte will be reelected. Republicans RETAIN CONTROL of the US Senate.

Williams: We're coming up on the eleven o'clock hour, still have some state that remain uncalled but it seems to be inevitable at this point we will have an apparent winner and know who will be the 45th President of the United States.

Maddow: Even the presence of the first woman nominee of a major party seems to be overshadowed tonight as Senator Rubio looks to make history with his potential election as President.

Williams: A quick look at the electoral map and we turn now to Steve Kornacki. Steve, how are the numbers looking in the states yet to be called?

RUBIO: 259

WARREN: 101

SANDERS: 3

PAUL: 0

Kornacki: We're still watching the results come in from Michigan and Virginia, but in terms of the race to 270, the odds are in favor of Senator Rubio and it seems to be a question of when, not if he is projected the winner of the Presidential election. Quickly, here is a rundown of the polls in the key states:

Michigan: Rubio Leading 45% to 43%

Minnesota: Rubio Leading 40.7% to 40.1%

Virginia: Rubio Leading 49.5% to 47.8%

New Hampshire: Rubio Leading 35.7% to 34.9%

Maine: Rubio Leading 33.5% to 33.4%

Colorado: Rubio Leading: 43% to 39%

New Mexico: Rubio Leading: 46.9% to 46.7%

Nevada: Rubio Leading: 47% to 44%

Iowa: Rubio Leading: 45% to 41%

Ohio: Rubio Leading 46% to 45%

Koracki: Rubio is leading across the board, which barring some major turn of events would make it impossible for Senator Warren to overtake him at this point.

Williams: Steve, please standby because we now have a MAJOR PROJECTION. We are now calling VIRGINIA for Rubio. Which by our estimation puts him OVER THE TOP.

MARCO RUBIO ELECTED 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

✓ RUBIO: 272

WARREN: 101

SANDERS: 3

PAUL: 0

[NHI]

Election 2016 Wrap-up

✓ Marco Rubio: 363

Elizabeth Warren: 168

Bernie Sanders: 7

Ron Paul: 0

✓ Marco Rubio: 46.15%

Elizabeth Warren: 39.05%

Bernie Sanders: 9.48%

Ron Paul: 4.31%

Other: 1.01%

Republican Control of the Senate: 53-47

Republican Control of the House: 248-187

[NHI]

If people are still interested, then I’m down for a 2020 game. I’ve created a scenario for the game. If all are interested PM me.

[NHI]

I also want to say well done to everyone! I greatly enjoyed being your moderator and all your entries in the game!

[NHI]

Interested.

I'm interested...and I already have my proposed candidate in mind.

Me too. And i do as well. Hopefully life doesn't sabotage me again.

I'm  interested but can we at least lay down the cabinet of the term of the Rubio/Pearcy administration?

Ok, great! If UWS and Jaguar4Life would like to layout the Cabinet Members for the Rubio Administration in this thread, that would be great. I'll open a new thread in a day or and we can get the ball rolling.

[NHI]

I will be posting the sign up thread for the 2020 game by tomorrow

[NHI]

I like how Rubio hasn't experienced any negatives at all.

I'm sure he has, UWS just is glossing over them. It's called propaganda.

Not even that, he has literally experienced no negatives or legislative failures at all. This makes him even more successful in implementing his agenda than FDR, which is completely unrealistic, especially since most of his economic ideas seem to have absolutely no negative effects whatsoever on anyone at all.

He's making Rubio's administration seem like rainbows and puppies and kittens, which is completely unrealistic.

I think NHI will nerf some parts of he's administration, or at least he should, so the game can be interesting and not something like "Rubio will win in a landslide regardless of what you do"

He better...I'd like to see Rubio forced to appoint someone else to Scalia's seat...maybe Brian Sandoval.

Update going up now!