The national polls are irrelevant. Romney will run up the score in solid red states, but he has virtually no path to 270.
Obama - 253
Romney - 191
I don't see Romney denies Obama 17 EVs from that lot, given what current polling looks like. Barring major economic downtown, Obama should win re-election.
That's just crazy to say. I'm not predicting Romney will win, but to say he has no path is wrong. The internal data of most recent polls has been very bad for Obama. Top line numbers are almost always the last to change. The economic fatigue is just now starting to filter into the headline numbers and we're seeing Romney creep up on Obama.
I suppose you could have written the same thing about Reagan in 1980. His path to victory didn't look so good in July, yet he won 43 states. Things can change and the polls will follow, not lead.
Economic fatigue sat in two years ago and Romney has failed to capitalize. Without supremely bad economic news that would put states like NC and VA in lean/likely Romney territory (allowing him to double down on OH and FL), it's a very narrow path.
That is the most likely map for a Romney victory, and Romney doesn't have the message or grassroots organization to make that map happen without dreadful economic news.
