Kos/SIEU: Romney ties it up (user search)
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  Kos/SIEU: Romney ties it up (search mode)
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Author Topic: Kos/SIEU: Romney ties it up  (Read 3676 times)
stegosaurus
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 628
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: 1.83

« on: July 24, 2012, 12:36:05 PM »

The crosstabs seem off; Romney is getting 17% of blacks and LEADING with Native Americans.

That evens out with obama getting 40% of whites, which is of course far higher than reality.

Gore managed 43%, Kerry 41% and Obama pulled 43% in 2008. Why would you expect Obama to do worse than 40% this time around? If the narrative is "horse race", then 40% of whites is probably the floor for Obama.
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stegosaurus
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 628
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: 1.83

« Reply #1 on: July 24, 2012, 01:12:37 PM »

The crosstabs seem off; Romney is getting 17% of blacks and LEADING with Native Americans.

That evens out with obama getting 40% of whites, which is of course far higher than reality.

Gore managed 43%, Kerry 41% and Obama pulled 43% in 2008. Why would you expect Obama to do worse than 40% this time around? If the narrative is "horse race", then 40% of whites is probably the floor for Obama.

It's certainly not the floor. Mondale and Dukakis performed worse than that with whites. The why is because the Democratic party has alienated the white community.

A) Dukakis took 40% of whites in 1988; Mondale even managed 34% while losing 49 states.

B) Obama will not be losing by 18 points nationally (or even the 8 points that Dukakis lost by).

http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/#.UA7lX2HpEpQ - reference for all of the exit polling data from past elections. very cool site.
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stegosaurus
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 628
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: 1.83

« Reply #2 on: July 24, 2012, 02:51:16 PM »

People care about the economy affecting them personally. I think people stopped caring about statistics when they realized the media was using statistics to lie.

You're half right. People only care about the economy as far as it effects them. Unfortunately, most people only have a rudimentary knowledge of the economy; they lack knowledge of how it affects them personally and how to judge whether or not it's doing poorly. That's why they depend on media narratives and ideologues to drive their opinions. Ask a layman "What's wrong with the economy?" As in, "What metric do you use to decide that the economy is bad?", and 99% of them will be unable to give you an intelligible answer beyond 2 or 3 words buzzwords: "unemployment", "high taxes", "debt" etc. People use easy things to form opinions, like statistics and "expert" analysis.

>1% of the American voting populace is a "political junkie" in the way that the people here and on other political websites are. We would all do good to remember that when analyzing things like current voter attitude on particular issues - we have to assume 90% of people are tragically misinformed and easily misguided to the wrong conclusions on complex issues. Politics would looks a great deal different if this weren't a safe assumption to make.

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