Current 2020 map based on Morning Consult tracking

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I highly doubt that VA is a tossup while IA is dem-leaning...

I have no clue what's going on in Virginia - together with Florida, it's clearly one of the states where Trump's numbers are holding up the best so far. When it comes to Iowa however, they will be hardly hit by the trade war in general and the near embargo of agricultural products starting to be implemented by China more specifically, and some Iowa farmers might have started to feel that already - though it's too early to say if the Morning Consult numbers are already reflecting that reality.

Maybe Jim Mattis is personally holding onto VA for him?

I can guarantee you one thing: IA ain't voting to the right of Texas again.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

My heuristic for how much trouble Trump (or Pence, lol) is in in 2020: graph how often Republicans mention Hillary Clinton on twitter.  The more Hillary is trending among Republicans, the more trouble Trump (or Pence, lol) is in.

I agree, 2018 approval polls are meaningless.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Some major changes this month. In the 33rd month of Trump's presidency, we have no less than 8 - I repeat eight - states with their worst Trump approval ever: Oregon (-24), New Hampshire (-23), Iowa (-14), Nebraska (-2), Montana (-3), South Dakota (+1), Arkansas (+4) & Wyoming (+16!).

For the four early primary states, all the campaigning going on there lately seems to really be taking its rough toll on Trump's approval there! Even Nevada and South Carolina are very near their all time low Trump approvals this month.

However, even much more important than that, we finally have a new tipping point state, as PENNSYLVANIA replaces Nevada!

In addition, both Pennsylvania and Nevada are moved from being somewhat likely Democratic into the fairly likely category (from 40% to 50% confidence). Wisconsin is also moved from being 80% solidly Democratic and into he 90% solidly percentile.

Montana with its worst Trump approval ever, surpasses Kansas and is now the 34th most Democratic state. More impressive though, Oklahoma manages to leap ahead of no less than two states, both Kentucky and Idaho, making Oklahoma now the 43rd most Democratic state.

No changes in the EV count this month either:

Democratic: 303
Republican: 209
Toss up: 26

Just a note of caution here: Trump was at -20 nationwide on the day he was elected.

In case you were wondering why NYT had Clinton at a 90-98% chance of winning the 2016 election.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Some major changes this month. In the 33rd month of Trump's presidency, we have no less than 8 - I repeat eight - states with their worst Trump approval ever: Oregon (-24), New Hampshire (-23), Iowa (-14), Nebraska (-2), Montana (-3), South Dakota (+1), Arkansas (+4) & Wyoming (+16!).

For the four early primary states, all the campaigning going on there lately seems to really be taking its rough toll on Trump's approval there! Even Nevada and South Carolina are very near their all time low Trump approvals this month.

However, even much more important than that, we finally have a new tipping point state, as PENNSYLVANIA replaces Nevada!

In addition, both Pennsylvania and Nevada are moved from being somewhat likely Democratic into the fairly likely category (from 40% to 50% confidence). Wisconsin is also moved from being 80% solidly Democratic and into he 90% solidly percentile.

Montana with its worst Trump approval ever, surpasses Kansas and is now the 34th most Democratic state. More impressive though, Oklahoma manages to leap ahead of no less than two states, both Kentucky and Idaho, making Oklahoma now the 43rd most Democratic state.

No changes in the EV count this month either:

Democratic: 303
Republican: 209
Toss up: 26

Just a note of caution here: Trump was at -20 nationwide on the day he was elected.

In case you were wondering why NYT had Clinton at a 90-98% chance of winning the 2016 election.

He was the outsider then, now he's the incumbent. It's not comparable.

I realize it's apples to oranges (we're now talking job approval, not likability), but still, I'm not convinced these numbers are as bad for Trump as they seem at first glance.