I made this comment in another thread, but I thought it might be relevant here.
2016's biggest
nominal R swings were OH, MI, NY, PA, MO, IN, IA, and WI. Since the 1980 census, every single one of these lost electoral votes.
After 1980 these added up to 146 EVs. Currently: 120 EVs. And they keep shrinking.
2016's biggest
nominal D swings were CA, TX, UT, AZ, MA, GA, VA, and WA. Since the 1980 census, each of these gained EVs (except MA, which has lost 2).
After the 1980 census these added up to 135 EVs.
Currently: 162. And they keep growing.
So what we have is Trump making huge gains in places that are rapidly becoming less relevant to the electoral math.
Here's our nominal swing map:
Here's our nominal trend map:
GOP popular vote gains are concentrated in Northeast and Midwest states that are rapidly losing EVs, while Democrat vote gains are concentrated in Sunbelt states rapidly gaining EVs. This leads to a hypothetical GOP Popular / Dem Electoral split:
The Dems get 275 EVs with this map in 2020, but 278 in 2024. Probably over 280 in 2032.
