Battle Ground States Predctions

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Florida
Bush: 49%
Kerry: 47%
PA
Kerry: 50%
Bush: 46%
more Later

Based on current polling...
FL Kerry by <1%
PA Kerry by 6%
WV Kerry by 2%
OH Kerry by 2%
WI Kerry by <1%
MN Kerry by 4%
IA Kerry by 2%
MO Kerry by 1%
NV Kerry by 2%
NH Kerry by 2%
ME Kerry by 4%
OR Kerry by 6%
WA Kerry by 8%
AR Bush by 4%
VA Bush by 6%
NC Bush by 5%

Yes, thinks really look this bleak for Bush right now, but I think he'll take back OH, MO, FL, NV, WV, and NH (and possibly WI and IA) after the RNC, and we'll have oursleves a race again.

PA is a lost cause for Bush.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Don't be too hasty. Not much is a lost cause this far out, save Massachussetts and the like.

I think there's too much bad vibe in the Philly area to overcome.  Had he kept the steel tarrifs in place (which, of course, would have been totally impossible) he might have carried enough of the west to have a shot.   But I just don't see it happening.

Any gains that Bush makes at this point are going to be in middle America (Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, and Michigan if he really builds up a lead), the South (Florida), and the West (Oregon, Washington, Nevada, New Mexico).  The best-case scenario for Bush:



And that's with Bush carrying 55% of the popular vote.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

How is it Bush = Kerry in Minnesota?

I disagree about West Virginia, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

In a tied national race, all three go to Kerry.  But Florida, Missouri, and Ohio go to Bush, yielding a 269-269 tie.

Interesting how that works out.