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Author Topic: Shock State  (Read 1586 times)
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

« on: August 05, 2004, 10:47:34 AM »

"Going to," or "would cause the greatest?"  If I had to pick two "shockers," one for Kerry, and one for Bush:

If Bush wins: New Jersey

If Kerry wins: Tennessee (I no longer consider Virginia to be a "shocker," even though the media would play it up as one)

Another "shocker" would be Bush sweeping the Dukakis Five (WV, WI, IA, MN, WA) - something that is a distinct possiblity.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2004, 12:12:06 PM »
« Edited: August 05, 2004, 12:14:57 PM by Beef »


Another "shocker" would be Bush sweeping the Dukakis Five (WV, WI, IA, MN, WA) - something that is a distinct possiblity.

I have a question.......why do you call these the "Dukakis Five" when he won a few other states as well?  Just curious.  Thanks

The media has long referred to them as that, and I'm not exactly sure why.  I think because they are five states that Dukakis picked up from Reagan, and since then have always gone Democrat (except for WV in 2000).  Of course, NY, MA, and CT also fall into that category, but maybe those are considered heavily Democrat-leaning states anyway.  IA, OR, and WA (and to some extent, WI) were predominantly Republican before 1988.  IA and OR went Republican every election from 1968-1984, and since Dukakis have always gone Democrat.

(From Googling around a bit, I get the impression that "Dukakis Five" was coined by the Bush 2000 Campaign to refer to states that were solidly Dukakis/Clinton, but still highly vulnerable, and worth targeting.  But I distinctly remember hearing that term long before Bush began his campaign in 1998.)
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