Here's Ohio in a roughly 50/50 race:
This has a lot of barely Romney counties since Ohio has a lot of ~R+1 counties in it and I figured the Appalachian part of the state isn't Obama's best ground, so I only gave him Athens, Monroe, and Tuscarawas.
Is there any reason you have Tuscarawas going for Obama, because having a look at 2008 it only went for Obama with less than 50%?
Not particularly. I just figured he would still win
something else besides Athens and Monroe and I am doubting it will be Jefferson. He could also still win Belmont.