PA 13

[Keystone Phil]

I'm sorry...alittle correction. Speaker Perzel won re-election over Democrat Paul Prior with 82% of the vote...not 88%.

PERZEL, JOHN M. (REP) 17,498
PRIOR, PAUL (DEM) 3,914


http://web.dos.state.pa.us/perl/elections/elec_results/dsf/district2.cgi?choice=STH&district=172&eyear=2002&etype=G

[Keystone Phil]

What % ya think he'll get against Perzel this year? It can't be much we know that.

[Keystone Phil]

That seems about right though I could see Perzel doing alittle better.

[Keystone Phil]

I think even with a centrist Dem it would be hard to defeat Perzel. Think about it: He's one of the most powerful individuals in the entire Commonwealth. With the Speakership, full support from the state GOP, and tons of $$$, Perzel is unstoppable. The whole straight Dem ticket hurt him in 2000 but he still survived. After that 2000 election, however, he made sure that even with a straight Dem vote in November, his seat would be nice and safe for himself.

[Keystone Phil]

Oh ok now we have "real" unions. The firefighters are another reason why Brown will have enough support to win this election. Other possible unions backing her: the police and the Teamsters.

In response to one point you made it is not appropriate at all for you to say that Melissa Brown, a DOCTOR, is attacking the patients. Go visit her site. She lays out her plan and wants nothing but the best for our seniors. She knows much more about this than Allysone Schwartz.

I'm also glad that Brown made the statement saying that we will get what is needed to fight in Iraq and the war on terror. Unlike some that vote for the war and then not fund the troops and our actions.

As for a long bumpy road this summer I think it's the D's that will experience that. Remember, your candidate has to catch up with Brown. Come November 3rd you can say whatever you want about the campaign or the issues but the fact is that Melissa Brown will be our Congresswoman - elect.

[Keystone Phil]

Handzus, don't compare anyone to Fumo, please. That is just...low.

[Keystone Phil]

She is not playing the race card; she wants to fix a broken program and you know it needs fixing. And it most certainly isn't a trap. The voters of PA13 know that when they send Brown to Congress they're going to have an advocate. They're going to have a Congresswoman that will stand up to and be heard.

[Keystone Phil]

As for high auto insurance rates, blame that one on Mayor Street.

[Keystone Phil]

oh and I have no clue what it means in English next to your signature. Could it be Melissa Brown - Our Next Congresswoman? That would make sense if it did.

[Keystone Phil]

The current PA13 has never voted in a Presidential election since the boundaries have been changed. The district changes took effect AFTER the 2000 race so these Bush/Gore numbers you are looking at are useless. Even in that situation were voters strongly disapporve of Bush, she still would do well. Look at '02: Rendell ran for Governor. He was EXTREMEMLY popular and won the district EASILY but look at the Congressional race from that year...

Hoeffel (D - incumbent) - 51%
Brown (R) - 47%
McDermott (C) - 2%

No complete meltdown, no scandal. The people of the district agree with Brown on many issues and they like her. Plus, Hoeffel was an incumbent. Schwartz doesn't have that power or the name ID. PA13 is going to be a GOP pickup.

[Keystone Phil]

Mike Fisher is a great guy! Sure he isn't the best campaigner but he deserved that job unlike Rendell. Fisher dedicated his public life to this state serving as a State Rep., State Sen., and Attorney General. He was a powerful Attorney General that led an aggressive fight to get drugs of our streets and out of the neighborhoods. You're taxes wouldn't have been raised if he was elected. Too bad he isn't our Governor...we would be much better off. So don't mess with Mike Fisher!

And as for the last Governor's race, Rendell would have beaten any Republican, unfortunatley, here in PA13 back in '02. You can't blame Fisher for not winning here; its an area where Rendell was truely admired. So I'll stick with the observation that Brown did excellent in an area where Rendell won overwhelmingly. She had to get voters to split their ticket here and to do that with Rendell at the top, no matter who Rendell would have ran against, is an accomplishment.

[Keystone Phil]

If the district was pro Gore by 12%, why did Brown come within 4% of an incumbent? This election, with Brown's high name ID and stances on the issues, she clearly has the edge. The thing is that most Dems just don't want to admit that she does.

[Keystone Phil]

So you're saying that without Bush's popularity, Brown would have gotten 42% of the vote? I don't buy that theory for a minute.

[Keystone Phil]

You can't tell me though that Melissa Brown would have received only about 40% without Bush's approval ratings. 2002's PA13 race was like a lot of races...mostly local. Section 8 reform, Medical malpractice, tort reform... these are local issues and that is what this election will be decided on. Sure Kerry on the ticket helps Schwartz out but remember Schwartz has to catch up to Brown, not vice versa. Brown is known and liked up here. Once again, 2004 PA13 - GOP pickup.

[Keystone Phil]

Exactly Handzus. Thanks for bringing the signs up. Schwartz littered the Northeast with THOUSANDS of signs; it was absolutley ridiculous. Right before the primary in the NE times, someone wrote in complaining about the amount of signs she had. People don't like looking out their front window, across the street to see signs placed all along the traffic median not even 3 ft apart from each other. It annoys people and that letter proved it.

2002 she came close to beating an incumbent Congressman but this year, with the open seat, she's going to take it. Yep, PA13 - GOP pickup.

[Keystone Phil]

I agree with you, Handzus, that Bard and Taubenberger wouldn't have been able to beat Torsella or Schwartz  (though Taubenberger MIGHT have been able to barely win against Schwartz) but my opinion isn't changing. Brown will win.

And as for Brown looking foolish, when did you come to that conclusion. She's got the edge on Schwartz and you know it.

Schwartz could score points by saying that electing Brown would keep the "far-right" in power but the people aren't stupid. She would then have to explain her situation...being a far-left, Pelosi-like Democrat. The people of PA13 don't want a member from an extreme wing. Brown is NOT extreme at all, Schwartz is. Brown wins in November, GOP pickup.

[Keystone Phil]

I agree that Torsella vs. Taubenberger would have been an easy win for Torsella. Any idea to what % Torsella would get in this scenario?

[Keystone Phil]

Torsella wouldn't get THAT MUCH support. And as for the third party candidate in this election, he's a Libertarian who won't make much of a difference. McDermott, who ran in 2002 for Congress and tried to run for mayor in '03, was a staunch pro-lifer but is NOT on the ballot this year. Sorry, Handzus, but no Republican votes taken away from Brown this year

[Keystone Phil]

yeah Handzus I think you were reading a NE Times from 2002. McDermott ran that year and won 2% of the vote. HE was a staunch pro lifer. I doubt this Libertarian guy is a pro-lifer because, like NewFederalist stated, there aren't many of them. Not to say that pro-lifers don't exist in the Libertarian party, it's just that I doubt he is. He won't make an impact on this race, anyway.

[Keystone Phil]

Oh and there is NO WAY Taubenberger would lose to Nancy Pelosi. You know that isn't true.

[Keystone Phil]

You made the statement that he'd lose to Pelosi and that is NOT TRUE. He'd lose to Hoeffel and Torsella but Schwartz...I'm not sure. Point is though, he would not lose to Pelosi.

[Keystone Phil]

Handzus, that post was wrong in so many ways.

[Keystone Phil]

McDermott won't have much impact since Al Taubenberger, former candidate for the GOP nomination and pro-lifer, will be helping Brown during the campaign. PA13 - still GOP pickup.

[Keystone Phil]

I find it extremely unfortunate, Handzus, that you just can't admit when you're going to lose a race. PA13 is lost for the Dems and that's it.

I bring up major issues that Brown is focusing on and yet you think that I keep bringing up the same thing all the time. And what issues has Schwartz focused on of importantce to the district? That she isn't a Bush fan? Ok??? The people of the 13th district want things done, wanted Section 8 REFORMED, want their doctors to stay in the state and Brown is focusing on that. Schwartz not being a Bush fan is not an issue to the voters.

PA13, whether the Dems like it or not, is still a GOP pickup.

[Keystone Phil]

Handzus, you should really consider Brown. You know what needs fixing in this district. Atleast consider it.