What are the odds that Toomey will be the next junior Senator from PA?

[Keystone Phil]

Too early to tell (sane answer)

[Keystone Phil]

Oh, and anyone that doesn't want to give Toomey much of a chance, please who will beat him and why.

I mean, if you're so confident, just give me a run down of the campaign a year in advance. I'd love to make some money off of your predictions.

[Keystone Phil]

Even moreso if Specter chooses to skip the Republican primary and run as an independent.

Which has basically been out of the question for awhile now...

I still don't understand all this talk (hackery?) that Toomey is a sure loser.  Pennsylvania is not Rhode Island, and Toomey doesn't come across as an extremist.  Besides, this is the state that elected Rick Santorum.  So what is all this nonsense?  Have any polls been released yet?

It's also the state that handed Rick Santorum the worst defeat for an incumbent Republican Senator in PA history, and it's increasingly Democratic.

Not always going to be 2006/2008, you know.

LOL AND IT WONT ALWAYS BE 1994 PHIL!!11 

Yeah, I know but that doesn't mean Toomey can't win.

[Keystone Phil]

By the way, I only see two sort of acceptable reason why Toomey's odds are horrific. Nothing really about his opponents and the atmosphere. Kind of surprising since so many people here seem to know it so well...

[Keystone Phil]

I still don't understand all this talk (hackery?) that Toomey is a sure loser.  Pennsylvania is not Rhode Island, and Toomey doesn't come across as an extremist.  Besides, this is the state that elected Rick Santorum.  So what is all this nonsense?  Have any polls been released yet?

It's also the state that handed Rick Santorum the worst defeat for an incumbent Republican Senator in PA history, and it's increasingly Democratic.

Not always going to be 2006/2008, you know.

LOL AND IT WONT ALWAYS BE 1994 PHIL!!11 

Yeah, I know but that doesn't mean Toomey can't win.

It doesn't have to be a good Democratic year just for Toomey to lose, it would have to be an extraordinarily friendly environment for Republicans for Toomey to win solidly against a competent Democratic opponent. For that matter, Santorum didn't lose in 2006 just because it was a good Democratic year either, he lost because people didn't like him or his positions, and in my bit of editorializing, was a wacko, he just lost by more.

No but in a typical midterm type atmosphere, he's not a sure loss either. I never said Toomey needs to win "solidy." You have yet to tell me anything about his opponents or the type of year 2010 will be.

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Turnout will favor the GOP in 2010 if it is a typical midterm and you won't have Bob "He does no wrong!" Casey. Jr. as the nominee. Those are two big reasons why Santorum was crushed. If Santorum had to face one of the current potential candidates, there would be no way that he'd lose by 18%. No way.

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And maybe moderates/liberals within the party need to suck it up and realize that Arlen has screwed us enough.

Listen, we're not going to see eye to eye on this. I don't want to go through another battle. Just please realize that there is more that will go into this race.

[Keystone Phil]

At this point in time, this is a stupid topic.  What did we say about Sheldon Whitehouse or Jim Webb's odds in 2005, hmmm?

Adding to that...

What were Kay Hagan's chances in GOP leaning North Carolina against the Republican incumbent?

And LOL @ the idea of anyone ever beating Ted Stevens in Alaska!

[Keystone Phil]

Oh, and anyone that doesn't want to give Toomey much of a chance, please who will beat him and why.

I mean, if you're so confident, just give me a run down of the campaign a year in advance. I'd love to make some money off of your predictions.

Joe Sestak-  Toomey's odds are about 5%

Joe Torsella- 8%

Pat Murphy- 10%

Jack Wagner- 14%

Allyson Schwartz- 17%

Josh Shapiro- 19%

Bob Brady- 23%

Chaka Fattah- 75%.  Low turnout.

I don't know what I ought to laugh at more - the extremely low chance that Toomey has against some of these people (only 23% chance of beating Bob Brady? Put down the beer, Flyers. Seriously. Brady would be smoked. And only a 75% chance of beating Chaka Fattah? Someone is drunk...) or the random numbers you decide to pick.

[Keystone Phil]

10%. We are throwing away this seat. Hopefully Specter can pull it out.

Specter has less of a chance to win.

You at least have to be somewhat competitive there, and you can't get slapped around like a red headed step child, which is what would happen to Toomey, especially going up against Schwartz, Murphy, Sestak.

Toomey would not lose as badly as Santorum and plenty of Dems admit that. The fact that he's not seen as that much of a culture warrior helps and turnout most likely won't favor you guys in 2010 so it won't be 60% to 40% in a lot of these counties again but you'll continue to ignore this just like the rest of your friends here.

It's possible for the Democrats to run someone flagrantly unacceptable, but I think even a merely ok candidate will do well enough to win a decent victory because the conditions are so favorable against a conservative like Toomey.

And how do you know that the conditions are favorable a year and a half out?

[Keystone Phil]

All I ask is that certain members avoid being so cocky in their predictions. I think we've all learned in the past that the unexpected does happen from time to time and we grossly underestimate certain candidates.

[Keystone Phil]

I love everyone here. I really do. "Yeah, Toomey is screwed now!" God, I just might refuse to show up to vote tomorrow with such bad news!

Easy line but only popular with those who are already going to vote for him. Dems just want 60 so they won't care. Plus, PA likes the moderates. Specter vs. Toomey in a general election goes to Specter easily.

Oh, it's always that simple.    Glad you know the climate already for 2010.

[Keystone Phil]

I find it interesting that when you have a situation favorable to your guy you jump on it like it's from God's mouth to your ear, but when the other side has an advantage it's always "too early to tell" and predicting way too far out. If you take a pledge never to predict again any more than one month out, then I will gladly join you, but we both know you can't do it.

I've explained this countless times! That primary would have been much different than a General. My points were based on thirty years of anger with Specter, Toomey's strengths, the absence of Specter's big conservative backers, etc.

You can't compare that type of primary with the climate for a General...unless you were entertaining the idea that the climate would change so drastically within the GOP and tons of PA Republicans would become moderate/left leaning.

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And the initial reaction means nothing. Nothing.

[Keystone Phil]

I find it interesting that when you have a situation favorable to your guy you jump on it like it's from God's mouth to your ear, but when the other side has an advantage it's always "too early to tell" and predicting way too far out. If you take a pledge never to predict again any more than one month out, then I will gladly join you, but we both know you can't do it.

I've explained this countless times! That primary would have been much different than a General. My points were based on thirty years of anger with Specter, Toomey's strengths, the absence of Specter's big conservative backers, etc.

You can't compare that type of primary with the climate for a General...unless you were entertaining the idea that the climate would change so drastically within the GOP and tons of PA Republicans would become moderate/left leaning.

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And the initial reaction means nothing. Nothing.

I wasn't actually referring to anything specific. I haven't been here long enough to become accustomed to your predictions. But what is the point of having this forum on off years if we can't give our initial reactions and long-term predictions? Rather than yell about how it's too far out, why not join the discussion and make it more productive?

Initial reactions are fine. Predicting with such arrogance so far out...

Now with Specter as a Democrat.... 0.00000000001%

Indeed

...is wrong.

Quite low now. I wonder if Phil will still argue that the moderate Republicans in the southeast will still vote for Toomey.

They may not like this opportunism and may end up disliking Obama/the Dems. Unlike you, I don't pretend to know the environment a year ahead of time.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, we'll have to see a poll, but assuming Specter's popularity overall stays as high as it was, how does an incumbent centrist Senator with Specter's kind of war chest lose to an overwhelmingly conservative former Congressman in a state that ideologically strongly leans towards the incumbent?  History says this never happens but the future could be different (if labor refuses to campaign for Specter...)

You know what else makes the odds of Toomey winning lesss?  Rep. Gerlach and Lt. Governor Scarnati are both contemplating running against Toomey in the primary.



http://www.politicspa.com/PressRelease.aspx?PRID=39488
from Scanati: "“Now is the time for Republicans to find a candidate who can successfully articulate the Republican brand of reform and fiscal restraint,” Scarnati added. “In addition, we must find a candidate who can effectively challenge the Democratic nominee, whoever it may be.”"


http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/po_20090428_7296.php

Today's stunning decision by Sen. Arlen Specter to switch his affiliation from Republican to Democratic has shaken up Pennsylvania's two 2010 Senate primaries as well as the general election, state political observers said in the wake of Specter's announcement.

Specter had been facing a tough and likely bitter rematch against former Rep. Pat Toomey for the GOP nomination, with Toomey, a staunch conservative, attacking the moderate Specter aggressively from the right. Specter's sudden switch opens the field for more Republicans to challenge Toomey in the primary, while likely clearing the Democratic field for the five-term incumbent.

"In terms of Pennsylvania politics, this is seismic," said John Micek, state government reporter for the Allentown Morning Call.

Democratic consultant Larry Ceisler said that grassroots Republicans who flocked to Toomey "forced Specter into this box. He has seen the public numbers and the private numbers, and he knew that he just couldn't win a primary election. He also realized how many Republicans flipped to Democratic over the past few years."

On the GOP side, one name drawing informed speculation in the wake of Specter's announcement is Rep. Jim Gerlach, a four-term moderate from southeastern Pennsylvania. Gerlach had been aiming to run for governor in 2010, but several sources said they have reason to believe he might switch to the Senate race.

One Republican source in Pennsylvania added that GOP players are already pushing state Senate President Pro Tempore Joe Scarnati, who also serves as lieutenant governor, to run for the Senate seat.

"People will take another look at the race," said Ray Zaborney, a GOP consultant who ran the campaign of 2006 gubernatorial nominee Lynn Swann. "I don't expect Toomey to be the only one in. It's easy to be the frontrunner when only two candidates are in the race. The question is, what does he do from here?"

Some suggested that the early grassroots support for Toomey, while daunting for any challenger, would not necessarily be decisive. David Patti, president and CEO of the Pennslvania Business Council, drew a distinction between GOP primary voters and GOP primary funders.

"There are certainly some [of the latter] for whom Toomey might be too conservative on certain issues," Patti said.

Arguably the key challenge for any Republican, several sources said, is how to position oneself in the primary. The GOP base that is assumed to be dominant in the primary balloting had clearly been indicating its preference for the hard-line Toomey over the moderate Specter. This suggests that a centrist such as Gerlach would face an uphill battle.

"If there was room for a moderate Republican in the primary, there would still be one," Micek said.

On the other hand, it would be hard for any Republican to out-conservative Toomey in the primary and still have a chance of winning the general election, sources in the state said.

"The challenge is to pick up the map that Swann and [unsuccessful 2002 GOP gubernatorial nominee Mike] Fisher confronted and ask, 'How do I make this look different?'" Zaborney said. Specter, he said, will likely compete in the same relatively compact portion of the Keystone State as Gov. Ed Rendell (D) did twice. Rendell won the governorship both times. "The question is, how does Toomey do better?" Zaborney said.

A more moderate Republican candidate would likely have to argue their case on pragmatic grounds -- that only someone modestly to the right of Specter would have a chance of winning the general election.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, political observers today said that they expect Specter to clear the primary field, at least of serious, mainstream contenders. Not only is he a political legend in the state who has always drawn a significant number of crossover votes from Democrats, but most also assume that he coordinated his decision with Rendell, who by virtue of his position as both a state and national Democratic fundraising powerhouse would be able to clamp down on any challengers' access to money.

The two Democrats who had gone the furthest in putting together candidacies while Specter was a Republican were National Constitution Center CEO Joseph Torsella and state Rep. Josh Shapiro. Despite the state's growing Democratic lean in recent years, either would have been considered an underdog against Specter running as a Republican. Other Democratic House members whose names were periodically floated include Reps. Allyson Schwartz, Joe Sestak and Patrick Murphy, though none had taken serious steps toward running.

If the general election does feature Specter against Toomey, most observers in Pennsylvania say that Specter would be the favorite, although most say that Toomey will run a credible race, especially if the nation sours on Democratic control of the White House and Congress during the economic downturn.

"There are as many blue-collar Democrats who are as upset about the stimulus plan as conservative Republicans," Zaborney said, referring to the massive spending plan drawn up by President Obama and approved by a Democratic-controlled Congress -- with the help of a tiny sliver of Senate Republicans, including Specter.

But even if economic arguments resonate for Toomey, a staunch tax-cutter and supply-sider, social issues would be a heavy burden for him, some said.

"Once he starts talking about social issues" in populous southeastern Pennsylvania, "both the Republican and Democratic electorates -- they're gone," Micek said.

Scarnati won't run and if you think either of them are a major obstacle to Toomey in the primary, you've lost it. Yes, Gerlach has the electability argument in his favor but he doesn't have the name recognition, respect or organization that Toomey has statewide.

Scarnati is known to be very low key and is only getting a mention because he happened to become Lt. Governor.

Phil, we'll have to see a poll, but assuming Specter's popularity overall stays as high as it was, how does an incumbent centrist Senator with Specter's kind of war chest lose to an overwhelmingly conservative former Congressman in a state that ideologically strongly leans towards the incumbent?  History says this never happens but the future could be different (if labor refuses to campaign for Specter...)

That's a huge assumption and a totally biased question (without entertaining the idea that Obama and the Dems might be unpopular in 2010).