1. Was Specter certain to lose to Toomey in a primary?
Yes
Conservatives/Republicans haven't been fans...ever. We haven't liked him on social issues and we haven't really liked him on economic/fiscal issues either. His certain primary defeat would have been a long time coming. The Stimulus vote was just what made people actually go crazy. He would have still received a primary challenge even if he voted against it but that vote was what ensured that he got a top tier opponent (Toomey).
This doesn't guarantee him re-election. Even if it did, how does that mean he's
not an opportunist? He's jumping around to whatever gives him a chance. One minute, he's bragging about how he's reached out to conservatives and how he's a Republican/will remain so/will run as a Republican and how we need a two party system in this country...and then he's gone when the polls show that he was going to get demolished. That's the definition of opportunism. The man has no spine.
Specter basically admitted he's being opportunistic. This was based on his showing in primary polls. He said that he realized there was no way he could win and switching was his only chance.
By the way, please see the article Lunar posted in the other thread (I re-posted it in the "Opinion of Arlen Specter" thread in the Individual Politics section). Specter opposed Jeffords switch, spoke out against it and switching in general.
He also fought to outlaw switching in the middle of his term.
