Obama won the 12 states polled 53.2 to 45.5
Obama's way behind his 2008 showing
With these numbers Obama still wins on uniform swing with either 272 or 285 EV depending on which way Virginia falls. Romney needs to either increase the swing more than it currently is or hope that Iowa's current swing in the polls by much more than a uniform swing would call for is kept while Virginia' current less than average swing increases. If the election were held today, Obama wins. However, Romney still has four months to campaign and that's a lot of time and money, so he still has a reasonable shot at winning.
