Will Obama break another record??

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Let's take a good look at the failures.

1988: 53-46
1992: 37-43-19

The Democratic share went down from 1988 to 1992.  Perot's third party played a significant factor is Bush 41's failure to be reelected.

1976: 50-48
1980: 41-50-6

While Reagan won outright in 1980, Carter's margin of victory in 1976 was so small, that any decline was likely going to be fatal, whereas Obama's 53-46 result gives him a cushion that Peanuthead didn't have.

1928: 58-41
1932: 40-57

Having the Great Depression starting on your watch will do that.  If the bubble had waited another year to burst, Obama would be a certain one-termer thanks to the Great Recession, but that's not what happened.

1908: 52-43
1912: 23-42-27

As with the 1988-1992 case, we have a third party option upsetting the results and the winner getting less of the vote than his party did four years earlier.

1884: 48.9-48.3
1888: 48.7-47.8
1892: 46.0-43.0-8.5

Altho Cleveland lost round 2, it was because of the quirks of the electoral college.  He actually increased his popular vote margin of victory in 1888 over 1884.

1836: 51-49
1840: 47-53

As with Carter fourteen decades lower, Van Buren didn't have much of a margin, so pretty much any bump down was going to defeat him.


Anyway, tbecause Obama has a larger margin to work with that and no significant third party to deal with,  if he wins with a lower share of the PV this time, it might be novel, but it won't be noteworthy.