What will be the closest state

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Right now Iowa, North Carolina, and Florida are likely to be the closest States.  Romney needs to change that to Ohio and Virgina if he hopes to win, and he has the time to change things, so this election is far from over.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Minnesota. Narrow Obama win.

So...Minnesota is more a tossup than Virginia, Florida, or Ohio?

Virginia or Florida imo.

The question has nothing to do with what you think the toss up states are now. The question asked what the closest state will be on election day. Its basically another way to ask how close you think the election is going to be. Right now Obama is probably up to 1-2 nationally. Based on that, I think Virginia would be the closest state. But as the national vote changes the "toss ups" change.  I expect the popular vote to swing to about Romney + 4 by election day.  That is a 10 point improvement compared to McCain. And McCain lost Minnesota by 10. So thats why I picked Minnesota.

If Romney gains, I see PA being closer than MN. I guess we'll agree to disagree though.

While the early indications are that Romney will have a bigger swing in the Midwest than in the rest of the country, and Minnesota being a tossup in November is not impossible, if Minnesota is a tossup, Romney will at least 300 or so EV, and 350 or so is more likely.