Roll Call:South Carolina: Sanford ‘Studying’ Run for Scott’s Seat

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Wouldn't it be amazing if he and his ex-wife ran against eachother in the primary.

That is a distant possibility, tho I think Jenny is likelier to run than Mark, and I really doybt either of them will, let alone both.

Here's some more speculation about others who might run for the seat: http://www.thestate.com/2012/12/18/2560302/scotts-seat-has-many-takers.html

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I like Sanford. I hope he runs and wins. But, it will seem kind of pathetic to have a former Governor brought down by scandal now representing some random House seat.

To be fair, it was his former House seat, not just a random House seat.

And Sanford would have left the governor's office because of term limits.  All his walking the Argentina Trail did was make it so that when he left it wasn't just because of term limits.  In fact if he had as expected, made a stab at the presidential nomination this year, but not gotten it.  I could easily see him running and winning the upcoming special election.  (Unless he did well enough in '12 to make him the designated successor to Romney in '16.)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Sanford has a number of advantages for the primary race, so he can't be counted out.  First off, he was the 1st District Representative before he ran for Governor, so he's got a double dose of name recognition.  Many voters will already know what he be like as a Representative, and that will suit the tea party faction fine.  But secondly, he's got a fair amount of campaign cash left over from his previous campaigns that he could use in this one, so he's got a considerable head start in financing, which is doubly important in special elections.  If Sanford runs, I'd expect he at least makes the runoff (unlike some States, South Carolina has primary runoffs in special elections) but with his negatives, he'll have a tough time winning the runoff.  If he does win the primary a lot will depend on who the Democrats end up running.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It seems like if he can avoid a runoff, he's golden. Can only those who voted in the primary vote in the run-off? I don't really know how those work.

If you were eligible to vote in the primary then you can vote in the runoff so long as you did not vote in another party's primary held for the same election.  (Since if a runoff is needed it will be two weeks after the primary, that means among other things you must be at least 18 years and 14 days old to vote in the runoff, since you needed to be 18 years old when the primary was held.)

I doubt Sanford can avoid a runoff.  He's likely to do exactly what Beasley did in the 2004 Senate primary, come in first in the primary because of his name recognition and then lose the runoff when the anti-BeasleySanford vote has only one candidate to choose from.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Well, that will make the election be to see who gets into the runoff against him and then beat him in the runoff.  This means that whoever wins the seat is either going to be fairly moderate for a Palmetto Republican or be an extreme social conservative who may have learned to not mention that he believes in such a thing as legitimate rape or the like.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Has any Democrat declared for SC-01? The Republican primary is a clown car.

I wouldn't call it a clown car just yet, even tho there at least four other Republicans who have indicated a firm intention to run.  Thomas Ravenel has only indicated he's considering running, not he definitely would be.  It would be interesting to see it come down to a runoff between Sanford and Ravenel.  Sanford would actually have a shot at winning it.  But if Ravenel won, there would be one more voice on Capitol Hill in favor of legalizing drugs.

I haven't heard of any Democrats, but filing doesn't open until Friday, and it's not unreasonable that the media have focused on the Republicans.  It would take someone like Sanford or Ravenel winning the GOP primary for a Democrat to have a good shot at winning.the special election.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

South Carolina needs to stand up as well and let the Country know THEY are trying to get rid of the garbage they keep sending to Congress!

We are trying to get rid of the garbage, but it keeps coming back to South Carolina every 2 or 6 years after we ship it off to D.C.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

She has been active in Charleston County politics for some time, so she does have a shot at the nomination (assuming she has opposition), but unless Sanford or Ravenel wins the GOP nomination she's got zero chance of winning the general election.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Ravenel has declared he won't be running, and Colbert-Busch will be having competition for the Democratic nomination.

http://www.postandcourier.com/article/20130119/PC16/130119176/1031/filing-for-district-1-opens-with-surprises-as-stephen-colbert-s-sister-among-latest-to-join

The Post and Courier says that there are 13 Republicans and 3 Democrats indicating that they will run, including the 2 Republicans and 1 Democrat who officially filed Friday.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Is Sanford really unpopular? I never heard anything negative after a week or so during his scandal. Peter McCoy is running and he's my state rep, so I may vote for him over mark. I'm not real sure. Or I'll back Colbert for the lolz.

Colbert-Busch is running as  Democrat, so she isn't in the same primary as Sanford. (BTW she pronounces the family name Col-bert, not Col-bear as her brother does.  If Keeping Up Appearances does a 25th Anniversary show, he should be the host for the US version.)  It helps that Sanford is engaged to his Appalachian sweetheart now, but it's still a liability.  Unless he ends up facing a real stinker of an opponent in the runoff, I expect him to make the runoff, but lose it.