Quinnipiac: Clinton leads FL, PA, NC, Trump leads OH (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 02, 2024, 12:13:13 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Quinnipiac: Clinton leads FL, PA, NC, Trump leads OH (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Quinnipiac: Clinton leads FL, PA, NC, Trump leads OH  (Read 5061 times)
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,783


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« on: October 04, 2016, 08:58:18 AM »
« edited: October 04, 2016, 09:51:00 AM by Gustaf »

These numbers are unrealistic when considered together.

Not at all.  It's clear that in this election OH has moved to the right and NC to the left relative to the average.  With that in mind, these results are reasonable assuming a Clinton national lead of 4 or so.  Polls are naturally going to come in on both sides of the mean (if they consistently don't do so, it's suspicious.)  Expecting polls from different states, even by the same pollster in the same time period, to be perfectly in line with each other is misguided.

Exactly, one needs to consider the MoE on multiple polls (about 4% in this case).
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.022 seconds with 11 queries.