Mission 2022. (user search)
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June 03, 2024, 09:29:43 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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Gustaf
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Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« on: November 30, 2018, 10:51:02 AM »
Democrats are going to struggle in the senate for a while I Think. Politics is partisan, polarized and nationalized. And in a neutral Environment Republicans lead in states about 30-20 or so. Now, to be fair, I don't Think we have a neutral Environment with Trump. But even so it seems tough.

If you assume a uniform swing from 2016 and a D+5 environment Republicans still lead 26-24, so 52-48 in the senate.

You can obviously play around with this a bit and there are a lot of other factors that come into play but just in general Democrats need a lot of things to break their way to have any kind of shot at the senate.
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,783


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #1 on: December 03, 2018, 06:17:54 AM »
Peters won an open seat in 2014 though. He should be fine as incumbent in 2020. That's why I'm not sure I buy the Nelson analogy. Nelson had only run in what were comparatively favourable Environments for Democrats and against fairly weak opponents.

Cornyn, idk. I still feel Texas is a bit of a stretch.
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