Changing presidential map or not?

[Gustaf]

Thought I would throw this out there: a map of Bush's latest approval ratings (admittedly about 6 months old now) from SUSA, adjusted for national eqilibrium:

Basically, no changes. It could be a unique Bush map though - perhaps it will change radically with new candidates. Anyway, discuss.

[Gustaf]

This says a lot about political bases, too.  I don't think that many people really see Oregon going Republican or Missouri Democratic in a tied election.   I imagine it's just that the 2004 Bush voters in Missouri are more likely to be angry than in Oregon.

Obviously also some economics-related zaniness going on here too.

Some of Bush's worst numbers are in Missouri.  I think it has a real chance of turning.  But alternatively, I think Oregon could switch, too. I know it's crazy liberal but Bush actually got closer in '04 than 2000.  That may or may not be a trend.  On my map if Oregon and Missouri switched the Dems would still win.  But if the GOP holds MO and takes OR they win...

How did Bush get closer in 2004?!  Kerry beat Bush by 4.06% in Oregon - 51.35%-47.19%.  In 2000, Gore defeated Bush by 0.44% of the vote, 46.96%-46.52%. 

Once one includes Nader? But I don't think Oregon is going anywhere. It should be noted that Oregon is only narrowly Republican on this map and still is heftily against Bush with that. It may just be MoE, etc. The same caution applies to Missouri. Ohio seems to have swung in the Democratic direction though not by as much as some here seem to expect.