Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread (user search)
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  Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread  (Read 63486 times)
Gustaf
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Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« on: March 28, 2008, 06:42:33 AM »
Quote from: Verily on March 26, 2008, 04:09:37 PM
Quote from: GM3 on March 26, 2008, 02:55:14 PM
I'm not a big television watcher but I listen to radio.......I've heard Obama ads frequently in Pittsburgh on the radio but no Hillary ones so far.

The gist of the ads is - Obama doesn't take PAC money or cater to special interests/lobbyists etc......no policy type ads



Not surprising; he wins over Republicans mostly on clean government, not on other policy.

Going for the Republicans in a closed primary doesn't seem like the greatest idea. Wink
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Gustaf
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Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #1 on: April 22, 2008, 02:59:21 PM »
« Edited: April 22, 2008, 03:03:34 PM by Gustaf »
Quote from: Alcon on April 22, 2008, 02:04:11 PM
Quote from: Torie on April 22, 2008, 02:03:06 PM
Alcon our little precinct is Lower Merion, Ward 8-4, and it is lollypopped shaped, with a circle next to Lancaster Ave, and then a long and narrow strip running down to the county line. The Strip is that 40% or more black area. Half of the circle is in the green zone, and half in the yellow zone which is higher income. Obama should be carrying this precinct by close to 2-1, I would think.

He should.  All the anecdotal reports seem to be bad news for Obama.  Mid double digits doesn't seem all that implausible.

Well, I tried to tell you what was going on. This is gonna be a landslide, folks.
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Gustaf
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Posts: 29,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #2 on: April 22, 2008, 03:04:24 PM »
Quote from: Verily on April 22, 2008, 03:01:28 PM
Quote from: Gustaf on April 22, 2008, 02:59:21 PM
Quote from: Alcon on April 22, 2008, 02:04:11 PM
Quote from: Torie on April 22, 2008, 02:03:06 PM
Alcon our little precinct is Lower Merion, Ward 8-4, and it is lollypopped shaped, with a circle next to Lancaster Ave, and then a long and narrow strip running down to the county line. The Strip is that 40% or more black area. Half of the circle is in the green zone, and half in the yellow zone which is higher income. Obama should be carrying this precinct by close to 2-1, I would think.

He should.  All the anecdotal reports seem to be bad news for Obama.  Mid double digits doesn't seem all that implausible.

Well, I tried to tell you folks. This is gonna be a landslide.

Close, but not quite a perfect quotation.

I didn't want to give it away too easily. Wink
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Gustaf
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Posts: 29,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #3 on: April 22, 2008, 04:50:12 PM »
Looks like Ohio, no? But 6% better for Clinton, so...no, I'm not going to use this for any kind of speculation, I don't think. Tongue
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Gustaf
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Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #4 on: April 22, 2008, 05:02:05 PM »
Right now it's 6 PM EDT, right?
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Gustaf
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Posts: 29,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #5 on: April 22, 2008, 05:09:51 PM »

That sounds like awfully bad news for Obama...which means that it doesnt rhyme with all the other "leaks." Well, well.

Now, where can I see some live tv on my computer from one of the networks? Help me out please...
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Gustaf
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Posts: 29,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #6 on: April 22, 2008, 05:13:28 PM »
Quote from: Alcon on April 22, 2008, 05:10:38 PM
Quote from: Gustaf on April 22, 2008, 05:09:51 PM
That sounds like awfully bad news for Obama...

How so?  It doesn't sound especially worse than Ohio, and Ohio was hardly a mega-landslide.

Well, first off I didn't expect Clinton to do much better than in Ohio, so I'd consider a result similar to Ohio bad news for Obama in this context.

But if I read it right (which I well may not have done) there was record turnout from old voters, white catholics and women and low turnout of blacks? That sounds pretty bad for Obama to me. But you're more educated than me on all these subgroups so if you say it adds up to the same as Ohio, I'll believe you.
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Gustaf
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Posts: 29,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #7 on: April 22, 2008, 07:00:25 PM »
tv link please?
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Gustaf
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Posts: 29,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #8 on: April 22, 2008, 07:03:17 PM »

No, I want a live stream of some kind. I haven't managed to locate one yet so I thought someone might be able to help me out. I had one from CNN last time around.
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Gustaf
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Posts: 29,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #9 on: April 22, 2008, 07:09:27 PM »
Quote from: PGSable on April 22, 2008, 07:05:01 PM
Quote from: Gustaf on April 22, 2008, 07:03:17 PM

No, I want a live stream of some kind. I haven't managed to locate one yet so I thought someone might be able to help me out. I had one from CNN last time around.

http://www.cnn.com/video/live/live.html?stream=stream1

Thank you! Smiley
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Gustaf
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Posts: 29,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #10 on: April 22, 2008, 07:17:38 PM »
Personally, I wouldn't say that Obama has had a lovefest with the media. I'd say that the media has given him a so-called "free pass"
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Gustaf
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Posts: 29,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #11 on: April 22, 2008, 07:24:22 PM »
Well, I'm almost certain that the exit poll is wrong, because it doesn't seem internally consistent. Whether it means Obama or Clinton does better I don't know though.
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Gustaf
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Posts: 29,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #12 on: April 22, 2008, 07:26:50 PM »
Quote from: Verily on April 22, 2008, 07:25:31 PM
Quote from: Gustaf on April 22, 2008, 07:24:22 PM
Well, I'm almost certain that the exit poll is wrong, because it doesn't seem internally consistent. Whether it means Obama or Clinton does better I don't know though.

A lot of the questions will only be answered by some respondents. Really only the big demographic quetsions (race, gender, religion, region, sometimes age although people lie about that) are ultimately worth looking at.

Yes, I know. And my reasoning is based on those numbers, primarily.
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Gustaf
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Posts: 29,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #13 on: April 22, 2008, 07:36:23 PM »
Yay, results!

And Clinton leads in Philadelphia! Wink
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Gustaf
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Posts: 29,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #14 on: April 22, 2008, 07:38:45 PM »
Quote from: Torie on April 22, 2008, 07:37:13 PM
Quote from: Gustaf on April 22, 2008, 07:36:23 PM
Yay, results!

And Clinton leads in Philadelphia! Wink

Philadelphia is not a homogenous city. Smiley

Yes, I know. Eaerly precincts always make for a lot of fun.
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Gustaf
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Posts: 29,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #15 on: April 22, 2008, 07:48:08 PM »
Votes are rolling in!
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Gustaf
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Posts: 29,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #16 on: April 22, 2008, 08:01:01 PM »
Big Philadelphia jump
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Gustaf
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*****
Posts: 29,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #17 on: April 22, 2008, 08:05:53 PM »
Cnn calls it
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Gustaf
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Posts: 29,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #18 on: April 22, 2008, 08:06:31 PM »
The rural counties are looking brutal for Obama.
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Gustaf
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Posts: 29,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #19 on: April 22, 2008, 08:09:52 PM »
I want more votes!
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Gustaf
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Posts: 29,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #20 on: April 22, 2008, 08:12:12 PM »
Clinton at 69% in Clinton. Tongue
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Gustaf
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Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #21 on: April 22, 2008, 08:15:58 PM »
So, is anyone ready to estimate who is strongest in whatever is outstanding? Seems to be a lot of stuff left for both of them?
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Gustaf
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Atlas Star
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Posts: 29,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #22 on: April 22, 2008, 08:45:38 PM »
Philadelphia is at 60% but Obama isn't...
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Gustaf
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Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #23 on: April 22, 2008, 08:52:34 PM »
Philadelphia at 72%. 61-39
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
« Reply #24 on: April 22, 2008, 09:04:48 PM »
Clinton margin going up again, after going down for a while.
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