To me it seems pretty silly that Obama thinks he can ACTUALLY get North Carolina

[Gustaf]

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=54

Please point out the poll where McCain has over 60%. Something must be wrong with my eyesight because I can't see it anywhere.

How is that the least bit relevant? All of those polls clearly under-estimated McCain since they showed a smaller margin than the actual one on election day. With 56% of the vote while losing by 7% (it isn't 8% now, is it?) it is at least very likely that he could have broken 60% in a close race. Certainly not ridiculous.

Nym, I'm not sure what you're saying here. While I agree that it is incorrect to say "McCain would've won if not for the financial crisis" I think it would have been pretty close if the financial crisis had not occurred. Obama would, most likely, still have been favoured but not by this kind of margin.

[Gustaf]

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=54

Please point out the poll where McCain has over 60%. Something must be wrong with my eyesight because I can't see it anywhere.

How is that the least bit relevant? All of those polls clearly under-estimated McCain since they showed a smaller margin than the actual one on election day. With 56% of the vote while losing by 7% (it isn't 8% now, is it?) it is at least very likely that he could have broken 60% in a close race. Certainly not ridiculous.

I'm showing how ridiculous it is to say that McCain winning with 60% is the most likely scenario before the financial crisis. Also the second part of the post, along with the rest of Duke's post is based on the idea that any swings happen uniformly, which is even more ridiculous.

I bet Duke was one of the 16 morons who voted here

I get your point, but the EXACT same argument applies to this thread, doesn't it?