Bush is slipping in Florida!

[Gustaf]

A new poll from FL shows Bush leading a generic Democrat by 2 points, 47-45, a bad poll for any incumbent. I know what you'll say, but it both goes to prove that Bush is still having trouble and that FL is leaning more Republican now.

[Gustaf]

It seems like nobody gets my point, despite the fact that I've posted it over and over again, so I won't bother to do so this time. I voted Bush in this poll, btw.

[Gustaf]

It seems like nobody gets my point, despite the fact that I've posted it over and over again, so I won't bother to do so this time. I voted Bush in this poll, btw.

I'm curious - what is your point?

My point is 1), Bush is doing badly right now, 2) it shows Kerry's potential, not his actual result or anything. I think current polls are interesting, relevant and valid, b/c they show the current situation. But people keep bashing me, suggesting that I am arguing that these polls tell us what the election result will be, but I'm not...

[Gustaf]

It seems like nobody gets my point, despite the fact that I've posted it over and over again, so I won't bother to do so this time. I voted Bush in this poll, btw.

Why did you vote Bush in the poll, but you have FLA going Dem in your prediction map?

That's a good question...

It's not really a prediction map, it's a poll map, it says so somewhere down the line. It will eventually come much closer to my actual prediction map, which is another one and hasn't been updated for some time...the one you're referring to is obviously insane, you actually thought THAT was my prediction?

[Gustaf]

What are you trying to do to me?

These maps are not strict prediction maps, they're just based on current state polls. I expect it to become more in touch as we approach election day.

[Gustaf]

This is it...but it's really out-dated.

[Gustaf]

Here's the confidence map..again outdated, I will change these soon.

[Gustaf]

That makes more sense.

Yes...especailly considering the fact that is hasn't been updated since...I don't know, last year or something, I will check it out.

[Gustaf]

That makes more sense.

Yes...especailly considering the fact that is hasn't been updated since...I don't know, last year or something, I will check it out.

The last time I up-dated it was the 19th of December...

[Gustaf]

OK, I've changed it, making AZ and IA go Dem, but learning the dangers oh jinxing from MiamiU, moved MN and WV to the GOP column, retaining the narrow GOP lead. Florida is probably more of a leaner, but I don't think Bush will win big there, and if the margin is below 5% it should probably be a tossup.

It's bad so I will soon change it again...

[Gustaf]

Gustaf's maps:

The first one doesn't look that far out, except for TN it's a possible result. The confidence map is weird, though...

Read my explanatory posts on this thread.