I would guess around 44%. I think he would have done a better job w/Katrina, but Republicans would be getting on his case about SC picks (of which he would probably pick liberal ideologues) and him possibly suggesting some form of troop withdrawal from Iraq.
Who's to say he would have had picks?
Rehnquist probably would have tried to retire early and get a lame duck appointment in--and O'Connor might not have retired at all.
I think the Democrats would probably be able to filibuster Rehnquist's appointment until Kerry was sworn in. You might be right about O'Connor, but if the real reason she retired is to be with her sick husband, then she probably would have retired anyway (whether she would try to get in under Bush as a lame duck or not, I don't know).
