Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
Posts: 20,092
Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
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« on: July 26, 2016, 09:41:31 AM » |
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I always forget between election cycles which GA pollster is absolute garbage and which one is mediocre, but I think Landmark is the mediocre one (and InsiderAdvantage being the garbage one). With that being said, two points:
1) Mark Rountree and other GAGOP operatives have a track record of putting out Dem-friendly polls in the summer; I think in order to scare the party into doing a better job and making sure they don't lose
2) Presidential elections aren't subject to runoffs in Georgia, but usually, you want to see a Democrat at 50 in polls if they're going to win. In this case, that's probably still true even without the runoff, just because of how the race closes in the final weeks; two-third to three-quarters of "undecideds" end up breaking GOP in the end, so unless a Democrat is ahead by 3-5 in the final weeks here, it's likely not going to be a victory
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