OH-SEN: Renacci Wins Weak Plurality

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ Geez, I'm glad I'll never have to bare the burden of losing my hair and still looking like a twelve year-old.


Anyway, I thought it'd be interesting to take a look at one potential scenario that compares Clinton and Brown's previous vote totals. Essentially, I'm operating under a scenario where Brown is able to hold both his turnout and support levels at proportions identical to 2012 in the six largest county voting blocs.

At the same time, we assume that Brown's '18 vote share in the other 82 counties would be:

[Brown '12 margin - ([Clinton '16 margin - Brown '12 margin]/2)]

Simply put, we split the difference between Brown and Clinton's margins, assuming Brown only wins half of Brown-Trump voters and Mandel picks up the other half.

The end result is a nail-biter; 0.6 points in favor of Brown. In a presidential electorate, the margin is about 33,000 votes. I'd assume in a mid-term it'd be around 20-25k votes. If anything, this shows how important the urban clusters are going to be in this race.