Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer (user search)
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  Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer (search mode)
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Author Topic: Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer  (Read 89738 times)
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« on: November 07, 2018, 12:49:14 AM »

I mean, I don't know a lot about WI, but about 20 minutes ago, I counted outstanding precincts:

356 in R counties
149 in D counties

Though I know that in my own state, the "precincts reporting" figures/stats are absolutely garbage. Can somebody explain why Evers can still win?
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #1 on: November 07, 2018, 12:53:26 AM »

I mean, I don't know a lot about WI, but about 20 minutes ago, I counted outstanding precincts:

356 in R counties
149 in D counties

Though I know that in my own state, the "precincts reporting" figures/stats are absolutely garbage. Can somebody explain why Evers can still win?

Nearly 50,000 absentees missing from MKE alone.

Wow, ok
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #2 on: November 08, 2018, 03:25:29 PM »

The Northern part of the improved for Walker, but not to the level he lost in the burbs. I might look at Walker's swing from 14-18 and population growth this decade by county. I'd be interested to see if there is any correlation.

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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #3 on: November 08, 2018, 03:28:48 PM »

^^^ Curious what happened in Langlade...
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #4 on: November 09, 2018, 02:31:59 PM »


I looked directly at Langade, I think it swung to Walker by about 1 point.

Atlas shows Walker won Langlade by 30.1 in 2014; NYT is showing Walker won it by 18.5 in 2018.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #5 on: November 09, 2018, 03:10:44 PM »


I looked directly at Langade, I think it swung to Walker by about 1 point.

Atlas shows Walker won Langlade by 30.1 in 2014; NYT is showing Walker won it by 18.5 in 2018.

I got Walker 61.66% | Evers 30.50% for a 31.17% margin and a 1.03% Swing to Walker.

You can see the results here

Well, that appears to be correct: must be a glitch on NYT then. Makes a lot more sense!
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