How would Casey Cagle have done if he was the Republican nominee for GA-GOV?

[Adam Griffin]

I maintained from the beginning that Cagle would have been weaker not just because of any corruption or imagery surrounding that, but because he would have not riled up the rubes to come out and vote in the same way. I still believe that Cagle would have done worse (though he may still have won).

Precedent - as well as the runoff figures - suggest that he may have done a bit better in the suburbs, but given the huge swings against GOP candidates of all flavors in suburban areas both in GA and beyond this cycle, his more "moderate" image likely wouldn't have amounted to much salvation in terms of votes (it's also worth noting that the Abrams campaign would have had a field day with many of his past extreme positions, many of which dwarfed Kemp's). This election was just as much a repudiation of Trump as it was support for Abrams, Kemp or Cagle.

The fact that he looked and acted like an interior decorator from Brooklyn would have neutered much of his organic appeal with rural voters, who would have still came out and voted for him by large margins due to Abrams being a black female, but his campaign would not have resonated with these voters to the same degree as Mr "Round Up the Illegals and Shoot My Daughter's Boyfriends" did.

Ultimately, I think the map would have been less polarizing overall; Abrams would have done as well as she did in urban areas and would have still pulled out lots of non-black, non-white voters, Cagle might have done a hair better in suburbia, and he would have done measurably worse in rural areas due to both a smaller raw vote and less absolute support.