Georgia

[Adam Griffin]

So far, 1,994,990 people have voted early in Georgia. Of those, 699,866 are black for a current total of 35.1%.

As of October 1, there are 1,636,423 black registered voters in the state. In 2004, there were 1,155,706 black registered voters. That's an increase of 480,717 registered black voters. In 2004, 72.2% of the black registered voters voted. It would be safe to say at least that many would vote this time around, although I could see black voter turnout be around 80%, or around 1,300,000 voters.

In 2004, 3,301,875 people voted in the general election. I think we'll see approximately 4,000,000 votes cast in Georgia in this election, which would place the black turnout at 32.5%.

According to the early voting stats and my estimation on number of votes cast in GA, roughly 50% of the people have already voted (1,994,990 out of 4,000,000). Based on that, 54% of blacks have already cast their vote (699,866/1,300,000). I don't believe that they're voting in much higher proportions than the rest of the electorate. Blacks will comprise 29.25% of Obama's vote, Latinos, Asians, and other groups will give him about 3%, which will leave the remaining 17.75% to be filled by whites in order to win. In summary, Obama will need about 26-27% of the white vote, with white turnout being around 63%, to hit the 50% mark.

[Adam Griffin]

Ok will he get that from white voters in Ga? What does it look like on the ground there?

He could possibly get that much, but I live in a very Republican part of the state so it's hard to say. Metro Atlanta will carry over half of his support, while hopefully some of the South Georgia counties that still have a decent amount of white Democrats that went Republican in 2004 will go blue this time.