Where will Ron Paul's support come from?

[awfernan2002]

I am amongst those who suspect Paul's support is well overstated by his internet following. Nevertheless I find him to be a very interesting candidate from the perspective of his diverse backing.

In terms of previous presidential voting patterns, how will Paul's support break down? One would think that the most fertile ground would be those who have voted Libertarian and Constitution, but based on 2004 results, this would only limit him to a universe of about 560K people (not adjusting for deaths, and of course the question of how many of these people would be registered and interested in voting for him in a GOP primary). If we broaden it a tad based on 2000 results, including Buchanan supporters, this group would be closer to 800-900K, but again, now 7+ years have passed and you'd lose more people (esp. with Tancredo and Hunter). Could we throw in some Naderites? OK, a few very anti-establishment, anti-Republicrat global corporate forces, but I don't think he'd get many Nader voters (with Kucinich, Gravel and other Democrats in the running).

For him to make a dent, he'll have to pull significantly from the Bush, Kerry or Did not vote constituencies.

Given how strongly he has condemned the Bush administration, can he gain many Bush voters? This is such a big universe that we can't typecast them easily, but it will be tricky for Paul. The proverbial "Paleocons" would seem to be drawn to him, and many of them voted for Bush as the lesser of two evils. Of course, there are some people who were enthusiastic about Bush in 2000, somewhat comfortable voting for him in 2004 and have since become very disappointed with the Iraq War and the second term in general. There is another core group of voters that don't follow politics much and base their decision on the right to bear arms and other fundamental issues that relate to govt restrictions (IRS powers, farming, land use, etc.) that checked the box for Bush and would find Paul attractive.

As far as Kerry voters, again, the problem for him is that there is such a big field of Democrats to choose from. Also, the added risk to Paul is that many will not be registered to vote in a GOP primary. However, I would concede that there are many Kerry voters who could be drawn to him. The first group would tend to be younger voters, socially very liberal but not dependent on social benefits, and strongly against gun controls and Fed govt bureaucracy who commonly reside in Western and New England states. The second are the generally lifelong republicans who considered Bush to be grossly incompetent and wasteful, including a few Paleocons.

The did not vote category is the hardest of all to put a finger on. There are those who are between 18-21 who were simply ineligible. Add a few others in their 20s who never got around to registering last time. To the extent Paul is doing well among the very young, he could be drawing heavily here. The "I don't vote, they're all crooks anyway" segment is very difficult to size up and politically unreliable by definition.

Of course this is all very oversimplified given how complex the voting decision is, but I would be very interested to see how Ron Paul's support turns out.