Washington state megathread

[Seattle]

Glad to have read Erica Barnett's interview with Nikkita Oliver: https://thecisforcrank.com/2017/05/15/the-c-is-for-crank-interviews-nikkita-oliver/

It definitely focused on land use and development, which helped to distill some of Oliver's views. More nuanced than I originally thought, but definitely not on the side I lean (desire for some ambiguous form of rent control, more community process (really??), emphasizing blaming the housing crisis on developers (and speculative market forces) over restrictive zoning). Good to see she's willing to tackle gentle density (mother-in-law units, accessory dwelling units, duplexes, etc.) in affluent single-family neighborhoods, though she didn't really lay down any specifics.

[Seattle]

Issaquah Council member Tola Marts (D) will challenge Dave Reichert in WA-08. I have no idea who he is or his quality as a candidate.

[Seattle]

By this point I'm confident that census growth patterns will favors Dems in the next round of redistricting. Seattle proper is growing at nearly twice the pace of the state rate, entitling it to early half of an additional LD by this point. Tacoma should pass Spokane by decade's end. Interesting that The Valley is growing at faster clip than Spokane despite being a hellhole.

I don't know if the 9th will be kept as it is, but it's looking more than likely that Seattle will almost perfectly fit one district. I'd like the original 7th to come back. As for LDs, it'll be interesting to see just how overpopulated the 43rd and 36th are.

Spokane's growth seems to have picked up though. So perhaps the dynamic will change by 2020.

[Seattle]

I believe the 9th is as goofy as it is in order to be an MM district. Laudable, but difficult to draw well in a state as white as Washington. An all-Seattle 7th would be ideal, I agree

Oh, I know. I think it's ridiculous. Especially since Adam Smith is only in his early 50s (!!) and will likely be there for another 15+ years.

I believe it was Slade Gorton that masterminded the 9th, thus securing the 8th for Reichert. Then they masqueraded the district as a "minority-majority" to both the other Ds/independents on the redistricting council and the public at large.

[Seattle]

Jessyn Farrell, D-46, will announce her resignation, adding yet another WA leg special.

She's doing so to focus on her bid for Seattle mayor. McGinn made a nice pro-transit, "let's work with Sound Transit to get LR built faster" statement that certainly tugged at my heart strings. But I still question his efficacy if elected. Doubtful he's learned how to play politics and work with the city council.

[Seattle]

I'm really liking a number of Farrell's responses: https://thecisforcrank.com/2017/05/31/the-c-is-for-crank-interviews-jessyn-farrell/

That's perhaps the most in-depth interview I've seen with any of the mayoral candidates. Durkan so far has not bothered to really stake out her positions. I'd like a similar interview.

[Seattle]

I have no idea who will replace her, some anonymous misc. Seattle D.

The 1st LD was once more marginal than it is now, particularly downballot. Perhaps Finn Hill/Kingsgate were more reliably D, so they got tacked on. Kirkland will have around 60% of the population needed for an LD, so perhaps will see the city kept together come 2022.

[Seattle]

Our Cranky favorite's interview with Durkan: https://thecisforcrank.com/2017/06/12/the-c-is-for-crank-interviews-jenny-durkan/

Notice in the comments that former mayor Greg Nickels noted a small factual correction. Got a kick out of that.

Durkan seems decent. I'm thinking we'll see a Durkan-Farrell runoff. Despite my initial thinking, Farrell has managed to increase her profile and pick up support from many urbanists/transit supporters, which represent a significant chunk of the primary vote.

We wondered who would replace Farrell in the state house: yesterday longtime local Democratic leader Javier Valdez was appointed by the King County Council. The other two choices were Nigel Herbig, a Kenmore City Councilmember and legislative aide to Farrell, and Melissa Taylor, a former software engineer who cofounded a group that trains Democratic women to run for office.

[Seattle]

I get what you're trying to do with your Yakima Hispanic district, but it makes for a terrible Clark-Columbia-Skamania-northern Yakima suburbs seat (though it looks nice visually). On the topic of aesthetics, I think it would be better to have Hanford given over to the lime green district, even it totally surrounds the Richland/Kennewick one.

Also, I don't buy those polls at all. There's no way Farrell would do so poorly - she has a built in base - the 104k (2010) residents in her NE Seattle district. Hasegawa doesn't really have this, as the 11th has roughly only 17k residents in Seattle, but he'll do well in the south end regardless, as his home is on Beacon Hill.

[Seattle]

Publicunofficial, I personally like your second map more. Even if it ends up splitting the Hispanic COI, I think it's got better contiguity. Argh, why cant the populations on each side of the mountains balance out!!

I think Dhingra will win. This is a district where tying Englund to Trump should work (though obviously the focus should be on local issues).

Here's my rambling #hottakes look on the race:

As for mayor/council, I'm really unsure. I got to shake hands with Durkan yesterday and will get to attend a small campaign event for Capitol Hill businesses tomorrow. I think that will cement my Farrell support and inform me of her electoral chances (not expecting her to convert me). But she's got the money, part of the establishment, and the "moderate" vote on her side, so perhaps that's enough of a base to get her to the November ballot.

I think Hasegawa really limits Oliver's chance of clinching the second spot, with his southeast Seattle base. Granted, Oliver's support is fairly evenly spread over the city, but it most certainly is higher in minority communities, concentrated around Hasegawa's turf. Or maybe I'm placing to much value on Hasegawa's sway in south Seattle.

That leaves Farrell, McGinn, and Moon. My biggest concern is that these three are going to equally split the establishment progressive vote - Seattle's largest voting bloc - and be eliminated from the runoff, particularly if my Oliver-Hasegawa theory is wrong. I'd say Moon is the least likely of the three to make it onward; her campaign's momentum feels like it's stalled. And who is her base as an activist? At least McGinn and Farrell have geographic bases. McGinn of course has name recognition... for better or worse, while 100k Seattleites have seen Farrell on the ballot thrice (though once unopposed).

I'm not enthused about a Durkan - Oliver runoff, but it would likely be landslide Durkan.
If not taken by Oliver, the second spot goes to perhaps McGinn or Farrell. In which case Durkan is slightly favored against McGinn and tossup against Farrell.

Maybe I'm being overly pessimistic on urbanist chances. After all, the deciding issues should be housing, homelessness, and transit. At least, I hope those are the issues... You never know.

[Seattle]

I like Joe Fain. He seems like a good guy. Which means he's probably not going down for a long time. *sigh*

[Seattle]

So IOW she's worse than Grant on urbanism if ST is pushing that angle. Lovely!

The Times is such a rag

I said it when she got in, she's the Republican By Default in the race.

*sigh* a city that really needs urbanism keeps attracting NIMBYs of all stripes. Seattle really can't win

Argh, I'm so annoyed I finally sit down to respond to this and my facking internet craps out when I posted.

So, to make the most of my irritation without rewriting my lengthy post:

Sara Nelson: Not a NIMBY, not a Republican, is an environmental, small business-oriented former Conlin land use staffer. Far from publicunofficial's characterization.

Teresa Mosqueda: I'm voting for her, she's great. On many issues. Only real urbanist in the race

Jon Grant: Basically a NIMBY. Sawant is way better. She at least understand Seattle needs to upzone even if I think her belief in the need for pairing that with rent control and insane MHA contributions is a poor way of countering market failings.

Nikkita Oliver: Would be a good mayor; articulate and comes across as competent. Not a disaster for urbanists. Would send immensely important positive message to POC nationwide in one of the few cities actually capable of electing a BLM activist.

Farrell/Moon: Voting for Farrell the transit urbanist, but I of course like Moon, the equity urbanist. She's actually gained steam with all these endorsements, a turn around from June.

Prediction:

Durkan 22%
Oliver: 19%
Farrel: 18%
Moon: 17%
Hasegawa: 12%
McGinn: 7%
Others: 4%

Run off: 58-42 Durkan

[Seattle]

Just wondering, but is Clinton's 84.22% the highest percentage a presidential D has gotten in Seattle? What was it in 2008/2012?

2016 probably is the largest D margin though 84.22-8.44 (with write-ins, or 86.04-8.62 without).

[Seattle]

Just wondering, but is Clinton's 84.22% the highest percentage a presidential D has gotten in Seattle? What was it in 2008/2012?

2016 probably is the largest D margin though 84.22-8.44 (with write-ins, or 86.04-8.62 without).

To answer my own question: 2008 indeed saw a higher D % if including write-ins, but without 2016 stands king:
 
        Republican           Democratic           Third Parties
2016   8.44% 32,362   84.22% 323,126   7.34% 28,162
2012   13.74% 48,164   83.01% 290,963   3.25% 11,385
2008   13.81% 45,761   84.32% 279,441   1.87% 6,207
2004   17.87% 57,034   80.50% 256,974   1.63% 5,195

[Seattle]

Calculated some more.

Kirkland:
      Republican          Democratic        Third Parties
2016   23.99% 10,816   65.61% 29,576   10.40% 4,689
2012   34.42% 14,838   62.60% 26,993   2.98% 1,284
2008   32.51% 8,037   65.53% 16,199   1.96% 485
2004   40.32% 9,555   58.32% 13,821   1.36% 321

Bellevue:
     Republican              Democratic      Third Parties
2016   24.58% 15,175   66.11% 40,820   9.31% 5,747
2012   35.76% 22,083   61.59% 38,036   2.65% 1,634
2008   34.41% 19,531   63.82% 36,224   1.77% 1,004
2004   41.68% 24,089   57.01% 32,952   1.31% 756

Shoreline:
        Republican             Democratic      Third Parties
2016   17.99% 5,484   72.69% 22,152   9.32% 2,841
2012   24.24% 7,123   72.73% 21,376   3.03% 890
2008   25.06% 7,184   72.88% 20,895   2.06% 591
2004   31.23% 8,730   67.27% 18,806   1.50% 420

Run off: 58-42 Durkan

Not from or currently residing in Seattle, so take my #analysis with a grain of salt, but I personally don't see Durkan winning by >10% in a runoff versus Oliver. Obviously I'm not at the vantage point to accurately predict anything, but I feel like, with activist energy & the grassroots on her side, Oliver could certainly make a single digit race against someone as uninspiring as Durkan, despite her enormous advantage in campaign $$$.

I doubt Oliver even makes the runoff. If even the Stranger, whose endorsement is valuable to the activist left, didn't endorse her...

I don't know, I personally think she is going to make the runoff. Though who knows, maybe a more pleasant surprise is in store and Farrell or Moon get in.

[Seattle]

"Polls" close at 8PM, but what that really means is that all ballots must be postmarked by 8 PM or returned to one of 70+ ballot boxes around the county by 8 PM.

As of 12PM, turnout is fairly a disappointing 22.44%, or 104,028 votes. My guess is that it'll increase to 130,000 votes, or 28% turnout.

My ballot:

King County Prop 1: Approved
King County Executive: Dow Constantine's immaculate hair
Port Commissioner Position #1: Port cretin, Creighton
Port Commissioner Position #3: Port shill, Stephanie Bowman
Port Commissioner Position #4: Preeti Shridhar
Mayor of Seattle: FBUJ<3<3<3: Flawless Beautiful Urbanist Jessyn Farrell<3<3<3
Seattle City Council Position #8: Teresa Mosqueda
Seattle City Council Position #9: Lorena Gonzalez
I honestly don't remember who or if I voted for a Seattle School District director...
Which is embarrassing, as a product of Seattle Public Schools...

[Seattle]

You can print your ballot out!

[Seattle]

The real question... can Moon keep her lead over Oliver with the 35-40,000 ballots still left to count.

[Seattle]

May be my wishful thinking, but I think that Moon could also do well with late returns. Almost regretting my Farrell vote, but she's keeping it reasonably close.

[Seattle]

4:30 PM tomorrow. There's 10,000 ballots that are ready to be tabulated that have not been. Along with another 18,000 that need to verified, plus whatever comes in the mail tomorrow (another 10,000 max probably).

This is something I've noticed since going to all mail in King county. Election day reports tend to actually be more left leaning than the following day, it's the stragglers from day 2-4 after the election that end up again left leaning, though at that point, there are very few actual votes left. I think this stems from the propensity of older, less liberal voters mailing their ballots versus younger ones who drop them off. Those mailed take longer to get there. But who knows, primaries are definitely a different beast.

At least that's the pattern from 2016. So I'm thinking those 10k votes are more left leaning. The next 18k are split, and the following 10k will be similar if not less left leaning.

Eager to see what follows.

[Seattle]

4:30 PM tomorrow. There's 10,000 ballots that are ready to be tabulated that have not been. Along with another 18,000 that need to verified, plus whatever comes in the mail tomorrow (another 10,000 max probably).

12 PM update: Ballots received increased from 116k to 127k, ballots ready for tabulation increased from 98k to 115k. Ballots tabulated: 89k

So that 4:30 PM update should be at least 26,000 of the remaining 37,000+ left to be counted.

What to look for: Assuming Moon holds her vote share (which I don't think is unreasonable if late votes are indeed left leaning, Oliver is not the only candidate who does well with them), Oliver would need to garner 21.17% of those 26k votes to clinch the second spot tonight.

13,583 15.56%
12,126 13.90% vote difference: 1,457

15.56% of 26k: 4046 ->17629
21.17% of 26k: 5504->17630

[Seattle]

Seems pretty high to me... but who knows!?

[Seattle]

Today's 3:57 vote update:

Total votes: 104,635 (+15,600) out of 127,000 (plus whatever comes today thru friday)
Cary Moon       15.74%   16,168  +.18%
Jessyn Farrell   11.98%   12,307  +.17%
Mike McGinn    7.07%      7,262   -.09%
Jenny Durkan   31.52%   32,376  -.08%
Nikkita Oliver   13.81%   14,190  -.09%
Bob Hasegawa  8.74%     8,973   +.12%

Good results for the urbanist candidates. I think it's fairly safe to say now that Moon has clinched the second spot. Oliver would have to match Durkan's current percentage with the remaining ballots to make up a 2,000 vote deficit.

[Seattle]

Today's 3:57 vote update:

Total votes: 104,635 (+15,600) out of 127,000 (plus whatever comes today thru friday)
Cary Moon       15.74%   16,168  +.18%
Jessyn Farrell   11.98%   12,307  +.17%
Mike McGinn    7.07%      7,262   -.09%
Jenny Durkan   31.52%   32,376  -.08%
Nikkita Oliver   13.81%   14,190  -.09%
Bob Hasegawa  8.74%     8,973   +.12%

Latest update:

Total votes: 142,556 (+38,000) out of 187,000 (as of the 2 PM update)
Cary Moon       16.72%   23,417  +.98%
Jessyn Farrell   12.44%   17,419  +.46%
Mike McGinn     6.65%     9,316   -.42%
Jenny Durkan   30.19%   42,281  -1.33%
Nikkita Oliver   14.88%   20,839  +1.07%
Bob Hasegawa  8.58%    12,011  -.16%

Moon - Oliver vote % difference same as election night results, but margin has increased to 2,600.

[Seattle]

Oh, Obama carried the 45th handily. 57.9-39.44

Just want to get on the record: Sara Nelson is not a "neighborhood" candidate. Pat Murakami (also endorsed by the Seattle Times) is the quintessential such candidate. I get why angrygreatness doesn't like her, but she isn't a NIMBY. In fact her overall political ideology probably suits you, KS, more than Mosqueda's. Nelson started the City Builders FB group, one of the first such groups dedicated to urbanism and growing Seattle up. Just because the Seattle Times chose her and decided to focus on some quote about neighborhoods needing to be heard, doesn't make her one. In fact every candidate has said something along the lines of "we need to still talk to the neighborhoods". It's just not politically feasible to not do so.

The Urbanist's Q&A: https://www.theurbanist.org/2017/06/28/2017-endorsement-questionnaire-sara-nelson/